Ladakh Flash Point

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silentlurker

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The Storm Shadow isn't a Tomahawk; it is capable of terrain-hugging flight like the Tomahawk but is arguably much stealthier. The French "Tomahawk" is actually the MdCN which supposedly shares quite a bit of technology with the SCALP/Storm Shadow.

The point is, the IAF has the ability to hit PLA and PLAAF facilities that in turn could severely hamper PLA/AF operations in a potential conflict. The PLAAF can deploy CJ-10Ks if it wishes but you don't defend against cruise missiles with your own cruise missiles.



Sorry, but this is a seriously shortsighted statement. Where are reports that the S-125 took out Storm Shadows, and if they're valid (huge doubt here), how can we be certain that this isn't due to some technical mishap with the ALCM? And even if a few Storm Shadows were indeed lost to legacy radars and air defenses, how is it appropriate to assume that most of these missiles would suffer the same fate?

Russian MoD shows remains of shot down missiles. Other media reports claim it was Tomahawks + Storm Shadows, I can't tell which. S125 was mentioned, but in combination with S200 and other better systems.
 

siegecrossbow

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Desperate Indian news media is claiming another number death on PLA troops thanks to Gordan Chang

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Knowing how Gordan Chang operates I wouldn't be surprised if the Indian death toll reaches 60 in the near future, whether by accident or something else.
 

Mohsin77

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....you don't defend against cruise missiles with your own cruise missiles.

I've mentioned the general threat that cruise missiles pose earlier in the thread. (Post #2,393)

However, I think you're misunderstanding the issue, because you're ignoring the operational side of war. Think about this: What is the goal of a first strike? It's not to piss off your opponent. A first strike needs to either cripple your opponent's center of mass, or at least put him far behind in operational tempo for the duration of the conflict. So the question is this: Can the IAF achieve either of these objectives? Of course not:

1) The IAF can't even reach the PLAAF's center of mass
2) There is practically no scenario where an IAF conventional first strike can cripple China's follow-up mobilization

Let's analyze your SCALP argument as a case study. Let's assume the IAF has 40 delivered right now for its 5 Rafales (which is a gross overestimate, but whatever.) It will mount 10 for the first sortie, but then what? How many SCALPs would be available for the second sortie, after subtracting the readiness rate of the Rafales, which is probably below 25% right now? Graph this curve to see how quickly this capability degrades over the duration of the conflict, because it is a perfect example of India's bravado not matching up to its reality. By the time the IAF manages to expend its total inventory of SCALPs, the curve of the PLAAF's in-theater capabilities and tempo will have increased to a point which the IAF can't match on its best day.

On the other hand, the PLAAF can actually achieve the intended effect of a first strike against the IAF. This is why I said that the dangers posed by cruise missiles work against India. Firstly, I expect the war (if it happens) to begin on China's terms. And even assuming that the IAF pulled a rabbit out of a hat, it won't matter because the PLAAF's counter will decimate it.


I think you make a valid point regarding any counterattacks the PLAAF might mount (reminds me of IAF's response to PAF during the 65 war),

This analogy makes no sense, because the IAF lost the 1965 Air War. According to neutral claims, the PAF shot down between 60-75 aircraft, for a loss of just 20. So clearly, the IAF's "response" didn't do much, and this will definitely not be the case if the PLAAF responds to the IAF.
 
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