It seems PLA is preparing to dig in throughout the winter. Satellite image from 特立寻 shows that theyre reinforcing the camp on finger5.
Ladakh Flash Point
- Thread starter Mt1701d
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The PLA did not take all of the ridgeline positions because it knew there would be no way to hold all of those posts over the winter, with the exception of a few bunkers on the ridgeline of Finger 4. Most of the positions it has taken are on flat terrain, easily accessible by ATV on roads newly built this summer. Indian troops may have reached the ridgeline overlooking some PLA positions higher up on Finger 4, but looking at the terrain it will take superhuman effort to supply any real garrison, not to mention there is no shelter on the ridgelines either.
We can clearly see here that China's perception of the LAC is the red dotted line, which it had RETREATED to voluntarily at the conclusion of the 1962 Sino Indian war. From China's point of view, the basis for any legitimate LAC has to be based on the 1962 war.
India's perception of the LAC at Pangong Lake is until Finger 8, which the above map shows to be India's claim line based on the Johnson line of 1865. Thus, not based on the 1962 war. India's only real argument for Finger 8 is because China had allowed India to conduct patrols without hindrance up to Finger 8 until this year.
As you can see, China's current perception of the LAC, which it has been vehemently protective of, is based on the positions that PLA had held at the end of 1962 war. Whereas India is claiming up to Finger 8, and other areas beyond it. A quick look at google maps illustrates why this is the case. As indicated on the map above, at Finger 8, there is a chokepoint on the lake itself, which opens up to the eastern half of the lake, at the end of which China's G219 highway runs parallel to.
Boats are a much quicker alternative to foot patrolling.
Analysis from Mr Sawnhey - its sounds like game set and match to PRC!
Too early to say, give it time. Wait at least till snowfall.
Not even close. Both sides still have troops deployed to the frontlines. I expect this to drag well into next year.
Just to add on to this case:
I think the main problem here is that consensus reached at the top and diplomat level means very little if such consensus are not shared and enforced for soldiers on the ground.
You see, on the Chinese side, statements of diplomats match what PLA soldiers do on the ground.
But as we have seen in these past few month, this is not always the case in India... There really is no guarantee that Indian soldiers on the ground will behave in a predictive manner....
I wouldn't trust any word coming out of India, because even if Indian diplomats and politicians are speaking about their true intentions, it is worthless if they cannot control their military. Measures must be taken based on the actions from the Indian side. So far, the Indian action still signals tension and hostility, I think unless Indian starts pulling soldiers back first, this thing is not going to de-escalate any time soon.
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