CV-18 Fujian/003 CATOBAR carrier thread

[banjex]

Picture take from flight in/out of Shanghai Pudong Airport. Look at how the runways of Pudong Airport lined up to Changxing Island (where the shipyard is) at the northwest you'd understand.

It's just a joke.

 

[Mirabo]

It's not sudden. Actually CVN theory gains popularity as soon as EMAL is comfirmed.

Also I don't know why so many people are so into the nuclear powered icebreaker first thing. Only soviet union has followed this routine. As a matter of fact russia is the only country ever built any nuclear icebreakers. French just directly went from SSN to CVN. So does US. First nuclear cruiser commissioned in 1961 the same year as enterprise. One year later for their nuclear merchant ship. And even for russian it's more likely because first they had a higher demand of capable icebreaker, and second their carrier program was severely delayed by political reason while they were already behind other countries.

Not to say 003 would be conventional or nuclear powered. Just this whole icebreaker or whatever smaller nuclear ship first thing is not really a good argument.

Yes, people have suggested nuclear consistently over the last couple of years. But the theory never really took off (or was dismissed as unrealistic) because it's ambitious to the point of being very unlikely.

The problem with the American and French evolution directly to CVN is that in hindsight, it turned out (somewhat) to be an unwise decision on both their parts. The Enterprise had eight reactors because its propulsion system was essentially a copy of the one used by the Forrestal-class, except with the four boilers replaced with four nuclear plants (two reactors each) instead. And perhaps also because they were already building and operating nuclear submarines with similarly-sized reactors.

Each of the four nuclear plants were designed to run with one reactor active, or both reactors active, while exchanging steam to a specific turbine or turbines if necessary. However, this sort of extreme redundancy involving eight reactors and a traditional steam piping system was very expensive and took up a lot of space, and was considered overkill. Using large reactors was much more cost-effective and made the engineering relatively simple, hence why each Nimitz only has two large reactors.

This is the first concern the PLAN would have had to address. If they just shoved submarine-sized reactors into an aircraft carrier, they need to be prepared for the expenses and the technical challenges that will likely come with this decision. The USN found out the hard way with the Enterprise. To their credit, the Enterprise ended up being the fastest carrier ever.

As for the French, they messed up in their own way. They just slapped a pair of submarine reactors on a 40k ton carrier and called it a day, and that's why it tops out at 27 knots. Like, come on, 27 knots is just sad.

The reason why people like the icebreaker argument because it's a cautious (maybe too cautious) evolutionary step. It's a slow and steady approach that fits with what we traditionally believe the PLAN might do. We expect them to take their time developing a new, large marine nuclear reactor like the A4Ws on the Nimitzs, and test this technology on an experimental platform like an icebreaker before using a finalised version of the large reactor design on the future CVN.

Ultimately, the argument boils down to: "Putting existing reactor designs in an aircraft carrier is too risky, as proven by the American USS Enterprise and the French CDG. Those carriers are not examples of good evolution - they were mistakes." And that is completely fair to say.

But the nuclear 003 theory also has merit. The PLAN can't spend time that it does not have, unlike the early 2000s when they could test 051/052 variant after variant without the US breathing down their necks. They could just throw a bunch of submarine reactors onto the 003, or perhaps they've developed a brand new large reactor design in complete secrecy. But both of these options are higher risk. What if things don't go to plan? Now you have a brand new 80k ton carrier with a super hefty bill, or a crappy powerplant, or both.

So we just have to wait and see. I would be surprised (but not shocked) if the 003 does turn out to be nuclear.

 

[AndrewS]

Yes, people have suggested nuclear consistently over the last couple of years. But the theory never really took off (or was dismissed as unrealistic) because it's ambitious to the point of being very unlikely.

The problem with the American and French evolution directly to CVN is that in hindsight, it turned out (somewhat) to be an unwise decision on both their parts. The Enterprise had eight reactors because its propulsion system was essentially a copy of the one used by the Forrestal-class, except with the four boilers replaced with four nuclear plants (two reactors each) instead. And perhaps also because they were already building and operating nuclear submarines with similarly-sized reactors.

Each of the four nuclear plants were designed to run with one reactor active, or both reactors active, while exchanging steam to a specific turbine or turbines if necessary. However, this sort of extreme redundancy involving eight reactors and a traditional steam piping system was very expensive and took up a lot of space, and was considered overkill. Using large reactors was much more cost-effective and made the engineering relatively simple, hence why each Nimitz only has two large reactors.

This is the first concern the PLAN would have had to address. If they just shoved submarine-sized reactors into an aircraft carrier, they need to be prepared for the expenses and the technical challenges that will likely come with this decision. The USN found out the hard way with the Enterprise. To their credit, the Enterprise ended up being the fastest carrier ever.

As for the French, they messed up in their own way. They just slapped a pair of submarine reactors on a 40k ton carrier and called it a day, and that's why it tops out at 27 knots. Like, come on, 27 knots is just sad.

The reason why people like the icebreaker argument because it's a cautious (maybe too cautious) evolutionary step. It's a slow and steady approach that fits with what we traditionally believe the PLAN might do. We expect them to take their time developing a new, large marine nuclear reactor like the A4Ws on the Nimitzs, and test this technology on an experimental platform like an icebreaker before using a finalised version of the large reactor design on the future CVN.

Ultimately, the argument boils down to: "Putting existing reactor designs in an aircraft carrier is too risky, as proven by the American USS Enterprise and the French CDG. Those carriers are not examples of good evolution - they were mistakes." And that is completely fair to say.

But the nuclear 003 theory also has merit. The PLAN can't spend time that it does not have, unlike the early 2000s when they could test 051/052 variant after variant without the US breathing down their necks. They could just throw a bunch of submarine reactors onto the 003, or perhaps they've developed a brand new large reactor design in complete secrecy. But both of these options are higher risk. What if things don't go to plan? Now you have a brand new 80k ton carrier with a super hefty bill, or a crappy powerplant, or both.

So we just have to wait and see. I would be surprised (but not shocked) if the 003 does turn out to be nuclear.

All fair points.

However my view is that the PLAN does have some time with fielding large numbers of carriers.

The PLAN budget currently isn't large enough to successfully build and field enough carriers to contest blue-water control.
And if the PLAN were to try, it would just trigger an arms race as the US would feel it could keep up.

But in 2030, the PLAN budget and size of the Chinese economy will be another matter

 

[MwRYum]

anyone know how many more carriers after this third one the PLAN will build?

Those who know the real answer won't be talking and whoever is "talking" are actually speculating.

Like, we can only make an educated guess that to keep at least one carrier on call at any one time, there need for 3 so while 2 rotated out for maintenance or training, one is ready to sail when the bossman make the call.

That said, nobody outside the PLA or China MoD knows the real answer.

 

[Kich]

IMO, no need for PLAN to build a CVN Type-004s. If their focus is operating between the first two island chains and Indian ocean, then 3 CV Type-003 should do (2 more if they retire Type-001 and 002). They will possibly have a port in Sri Lanka for resupply in the Indian Ocean.
Building 004 CVN should come later once more Type-095 SSN comes online.

 

[MwRYum]

It's just a joke.

But those lazy "journalists" who too often pirated our stuff here and called it "unnamed sources" don't. So for the record we should put such info up, even just to distinguish ourselves from them.

 

[Tam]

If you are familiar with Chinese military watcher community in Chinese language you will know at this point half of the people believe it is nuclear powered.

Based on the island mockup, which is I would say, high confidence or near official, the island has a funnel which points to conventional. The island also has dual band AESAs, and two large ECM panels, both derived from the 055. It also features a brand new CEC and ESM tower.

Then again, China designed and made its first ever truly indigenous design submarine straight up with a nuclear reactor, completely bypassing the SSK stage. Ironically, China made its first indigenous design SSK only many years later.

Its likely for me that the original design of the 003 was conventional, but who knows if they decided to make it nuclear sometime after.

If they decided to switch to nuclear somewhere after, there is likely to be engineering and scientific reasons to do so, and not because of military or political reasons.

 

[Lethe]

But the nuclear 003 theory also has merit. The PLAN can't spend time that it does not have, unlike the early 2000s when they could test 051/052 variant after variant without the US breathing down their necks. They could just throw a bunch of submarine reactors onto the 003, or perhaps they've developed a brand new large reactor design in complete secrecy. But both of these options are higher risk. What if things don't go to plan? Now you have a brand new 80k ton carrier with a super hefty bill, or a crappy powerplant, or both.

The deteriorating strategic environment is precisely why China might plausibly abandon, pause, or delay the development of a nuclear-powered carrier. Conventional carriers are both significantly cheaper and faster to build than nuclear carriers and can provide the numbers and aggregate capabilities that PLAN would require to play a strategically significant role without breaking the bank. Conventional offers PLAN much better bang for buck over the medium-term (e.g. period to ~2035-40) in which the strategic balance and political situation with the USA and other regional nations is going to be most tense. Going straight to nuclear is for peacetime when you don't care about delivering X capabilities by Y date for Z cost because the technology and expertise involved in the endeavour are the goals in and of themselves.

Personally, I don't think PLAN should look at nuclear carriers until they have at least six conventional carriers on the board. And not just because of the balance of power/buildup/budget considerations noted above, but also in terms of minimising PLAN's exposure to potentially revolutionary technologies that may threaten the long-term viability of the aircraft carrier. That is to say, conventional over nuclear would not only be about putting more carriers into service, faster, but also putting fewer eggs in the eye-wateringly expensive "carrier" basket in the first place, freeing up more resources for expenditure elsewhere.

 

[hkky]

Its likely for me that the original design of the 003 was conventional, but who knows if they decided to make it nuclear sometime after.

It seems people have the notion that there is a large step in going to nuclear in both technology and ship design. I have no expertise in ship design, but nuclear reactor merely replaces the boiler and nuclear reactors are likely much smaller than boilers. People worked on Russian naval nuclear reactors stated a sub reactor can fit inside the footprint of a typical office (think of a large cubicle) and so I do not see issues replacing boilers with nuclear reactors if a reactor design becomes available. There will need be design changes but the space should fit without major structural changes if the ship was initially designed for conventional propulsion.

 

[weig2000]

The speculations of 003 or even 004 would be nuclear-powered are largely driven by some Chinese military enthusiasts wanting PLAN to have the best, biggest, baddest of everything in the shortest time frame. They're not grounded in reality or necessity.

What are the disadvantages of having a pair of 80k-ton class conventional catapult carriers versus nuclear-powered ones at this stage of PLAN carrier program in the context of China's geo-strategic environment? I don't see any, none actually.

From an operational standpoint, the main advantage of CVN versus CV is the endurance; the advantages of long-term availability and cost are debatable, at least not big factors for PLAN now. The 003 & 004 will be primarily deployed within the 2nd island chain and Northern Indian Ocean, as well as for training. It's not like that they're going to be deployed for more than six months at a time and far from the homeland. Other than that, a conventional CV is as capable as a CVN, almost.

Form a development standpoint, China's nuclear reactor for carrier is unlikely to be mature or even ready at this point. Why rush for a sub-optimal design? 003 & 004 would be China's first shots at catapult carriers. They're new for PLAN both to design and operate. Why add new and additional risks, which can delay the construction and delivery process when China needs them asap?

I'm assuming 004 construction has already started or will soon. As stated above, it makes no sense to delay 004 in order to incorporate the nuclear power plants, unless, of course, they're ready, which is not likely, IMO.