Ladakh Flash Point

[Sardaukar20]

So this brings me to my main point. I understand that it is easy for members on SDF to develop tunnel vision in such echo chambers as SDF (not that there's anything wrong with that), but people are missing the big perspective. I'm getting the feeling that there is a undercurrent assumption among SDF members that the PLAAF and PLA would steamroll their Indian counterparts if the Ladakh standoff ever goes hot, but I have my doubts, which I will explain.

IAF's biggest and perhaps most prominent aerial assets in the region are the Rafale, Su-30MKI, and their new Phalcon AWACS purchase. We know that the Rafale and Su-30MKIs have been deployed to Ambala AFB and other FOBs near the Indo-Chinese border. We also know that the IAF now operates an unknown number of Storm Shadow ALCMs (with 500+ km range) as part of their Rafale package and that their Sukhois are integrated with the air-launched BrahMos (400 km range). The IAF essentially has the hardware to conduct deep strikes against both PLAAF bases and mainland cities/infrastructure while remaining relatively impervious to Chinese anti-air and anti-missile defenses. Sure, neither platform might stand a chance against the J-20, but neither would require much of a hop in order to release their standoff munitions.

The PLAAF, on the other hand, doesn't have anywhere near India's air-to-ground capabilities deployed near the Ladakh region. Their J-11s are not capable of A2G combat while their JH-7/H-6K have no air-to-air capability required to exploit their full payload potential. J-10Cs are not integrated with long-range ALCMs while the J-16s have barely begun deployment in the region. The J-20s - if used at all - will certainly not undertake air-to-surface missions against IAF airfields.

The PLAAF would be forced to be on constant alert for incoming IAF munitions & aircraft while dealing with unstoppable strikes by way of terrain-hugging cruise missiles from Rafales, leaving little to no available assets to conduct air support operations against IA ground forces.

Couple that with their Phalcon AWACs, S-400 missiles, and large contingency of legacy airframes like the Mirage and MiG-29s, and the PLAAF would be opening a can of worms if it attempts anything.

You are over-emphasing this conflict from the air force point of view. The PLARF and PLAAF does have the ability to fire the 1500km ranged CJ series Cruise missiles from both land and air. Not only that, there are also the DF series SRBMs and MRBMs that can strike India from deep inside Chinese territory. PLAAF strike jets like the JH-7 and J-16 could deploy glide bombs and lob them from behind the mountain ranges like the Israelis do over the Golan Heights to hit targets in Damascus. Then there are the UAVs and UCAVs at China's disposal. The Chinese are not totally helpless with their standoff weapons options.

The Storm Shadows from India are the most immediate danger to PLA forces, but there aren't going to be enough of them available to truly win a shooting war with the PLA. The Storm Shadows are also not undefeatable. Some have been shot down by Syrian antiquated S-125 SAMs back in 2017.

Brahmos are available in large numbers. But they are essentially Mach 3.0 AshM. They are not going to maneuver around the mountainous terrains like a dedicated CM. They will fly a lofted trajectory. So they are easier to spot and intercept.

China does have a fully integrated Air Defence Network. They have a plethora of SAMs and Radars at the border area. From HQ-9 to HQ-16 to the Sky Dragon 12 to deal with Indian incoming missiles.

China does have to watchout for those S-400s because they can hit PLAAF aircrafts flying well within Chinese airspace. But the mountains can be used shield their approach from Indian Radars.

Yes, I agree that we must be realistic that India does have options to really hurt Chinese forces and cities. The CCP has even given a statement in their Global Times mouthpiece that India will not be underestimated. But we must not forget that China is far from helpless in striking Indian targets and cities. New Delhi is within easy reach from a variety of Chinese missiles.

 

[SinoSoldier]

You are over-emphasing this conflict from the air force point of view. The PLARF and PLAAF does have the ability to fire the 1500km ranged CJ series Cruise missiles from both land and air. Not only that, there are also the DF series SRBMs and MRBMs that can strike India from deep inside Chinese territory. PLAAF strike jets like the JH-7 and J-16 could deploy glide bombs and lob them from behind the mountain ranges like the Israelis do over the Golan Heights to hit targets in Damascus. Then there are the UAVs and UCAVs at China's disposal. The Chinese are not totally helpless with their standoff weapons options.

Given the deployment of PLAAF assets to the region I feel that I'm not the only one getting a whiff of what the IAF might bring to the tablet. Both India and China have ballistic missile defenses capable of providing either country with a bit of warning. Same cannot be said of the stealthy Storm Shadows that IAF Rafales can simply release into the mountain ranges. Allowing the Rafale to carry the missile provides the IAF with an additional layer of flexibility and air-to-air confidence that aren't afforded to the PLAAF by their H-6Ks.

What the PLAAF really lacks, from their standpoint, is a versatile 500-km-range ALCM that could be carried by their J-10C or J-16. Glide bombs have limited range and nowhere near the reach required to attack Ambala or other IAF bases.

Nevertheless, the other point of my previous post is that the PLAAF has deployed mostly air-to-air assets, which speaks to the likelihood that the PLAAF is expecting aircraft to play a more defensive than CAS role.

The Storm Shadows from India are the most immediate danger to PLA forces, but there aren't going to be enough of them available to truly win a shooting war with the PLA. The Storm Shadows are also not undefeatable. Some have been shot down by Syrian antiquated S-125 SAMs back in 2017.

Brahmos are available in large numbers. But they are essentially Mach 3.0 AshM. They are not going to maneuver around the mountainous terrains like a dedicated CM. They will fly a lofted trajectory. So they are easier to spot and intercept.

China does have a fully integrated Air Defence Network. They have a plethora of SAMs and Radars at the border area. From HQ-9 to HQ-16 to the Sky Dragon 12 to deal with Indian incoming missiles.

China does have to watchout for those S-400s because they can hit PLAAF aircrafts flying well within Chinese airspace. But the mountains can be used shield their approach from Indian Radars.

You don't need a Iraq-esque cruise missile saturation attack to knock out an airbase. A few pinpoint strikes near runway confluences and/or submunition attacks would suffice in taking the PLAAF out of the equation, at least for several hours. And I doubt that HQ-9s and HQ-16s will be all that effective in curbing low-flying terrain-hugging cruise missiles. They're also stealthier than the hunky Tomahawks and CJ-10s that the Americans/Chinese use.

I'm not sure if HQ-17s are deployed amongst Chinese forces near India.

Yes, I agree that we must be realistic that India does have options to really hurt Chinese forces and cities. The CCP has even given a statement in their Global Times mouthpiece that India will not be underestimated. But we must not forget that China is far from helpless in striking Indian targets and cities. New Delhi is within easy reach from a variety of Chinese missiles.

I don't think a potential border skirmish will escalate to the point where both countries are lobbing missiles at each other's cities. But the Chinese government and its people need to understand that fighting India in 2020 would not be like 1962.

 

[SinoSoldier]

What happened if PLA jammed GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and Indian GPS signals in Chinese terroritory? Where is India's S-400?

Are we to assume that the conflict will escalate to a point where both countries are itching to disable the other's strategic assets, knowing fully well that the US and India could reciprocate and equally incapacitate Chinese forces?

 

[Gatekeeper]

You are over-emphasing this conflict from the air force point of view. The PLARF and PLAAF does have the ability to fire the 1500km ranged CJ series Cruise missiles from both land and air. Not only that, there are also the DF series SRBMs and MRBMs that can strike India from deep inside Chinese territory. PLAAF strike jets like the JH-7 and J-16 could deploy glide bombs and lob them from behind the mountain ranges like the Israelis do over the Golan Heights to hit targets in Damascus. Then there are the UAVs and UCAVs at China's disposal. The Chinese are not totally helpless with their standoff weapons options.

The Storm Shadows from India are the most immediate danger to PLA forces, but there aren't going to be enough of them available to truly win a shooting war with the PLA. The Storm Shadows are also not undefeatable. Some have been shot down by Syrian antiquated S-125 SAMs back in 2017.

Brahmos are available in large numbers. But they are essentially Mach 3.0 AshM. They are not going to maneuver around the mountainous terrains like a dedicated CM. They will fly a lofted trajectory. So they are easier to spot and intercept.

China does have a fully integrated Air Defence Network. They have a plethora of SAMs and Radars at the border area. From HQ-9 to HQ-16 to the Sky Dragon 12 to deal with Indian incoming missiles.

China does have to watchout for those S-400s because they can hit PLAAF aircrafts flying well within Chinese airspace. But the mountains can be used shield their approach from Indian Radars.

Yes, I agree that we must be realistic that India does have options to really hurt Chinese forces and cities. The CCP has even given a statement in their Global Times mouthpiece that India will not be underestimated. But we must not forget that China is far from helpless in striking Indian targets and cities. New Delhi is within easy reach from a variety of Chinese missiles.

Exactly, our soldier from sino (I don't know why he called himself That, when he is clearly no sinosoldier) spin it as a one way traffic in the sino-infia conflict. When no one, not China nor members here are saying that. All we are trying to do is ascertain what happened on the border.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Taiwanese official pays tribute to Indo-Tibetan soldier:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303720206712205312

 

[Gatekeeper]

Taiwanese official pays tribute to Indo-Tibetan soldier:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303720206712205312

Some Taiwanese government official, such incompetence clearly for the world to see must be embarrassing for her boss, Tsai.

Perhaps someone ought to mention to her and any uninformed members here that officially Taiwan (ROC) still maintain claims to Tibet and all disputed parts with India.

And what she's done is treasonous in Taiwan or anywhere else.

 

[Tianlong]

What do you guys think?

 

[Mohsin77]

IAF's biggest and perhaps most prominent aerial assets in the region are the Rafale, Su-30MKI, and their new Phalcon AWACS purchase.

It will be quite a while before the first Rafale squadron is stood up and becomes combat ready. If you're going to add the Rafale to this list, then you need to re-calculate for the PLAAF's capabilities in the region for the same timeframe.

The platforms of the IAF right now are the MKIs, Fulcrums, Mirage2K and Bisons. One of these 4 platforms is already obsolete, while the others are outmatched by multiple Chinese AESA+PL-15 equipped platforms.

The PLAAF, on the other hand, doesn't have anywhere near India's air-to-ground capabilities deployed near the Ladakh region. Their J-11s are not capable of A2G combat while their JH-7/H-6K have no air-to-air capability required to exploit their full payload potential.

The sequence of priorities is air superiority before CAS/Interdiction. And since the PLAAF has a clear advantage in the former, I'm not concerned with its options for the latter. After it has established clear skies overhead, the PLAAF can use whatever it wants for CAS, even legacy aircraft. (There's also Strike and SEAD/DEAD, which both happen before CAS/Interdiction.)

 

[SinoSoldier]

It will be quite a while before the first Rafale squadron is stood up and becomes combat ready. If you're going to add the Rafale to this list, then you need to re-calculate for the PLAAF's capabilities in the region for the same timeframe.

The platforms of the IAF right now are the MKIs, Fulcrums, Mirage2K and Bisons. One of these 4 platforms is already obsolete, while the others are outmatched by multiple Chinese AESA+PL-15 equipped platforms.



The sequence of priorities is air superiority before CAS/Interdiction. And since the PLAAF has a clear advantage in the former, I'm not concerned with its options for the latter. After it has established clear skies overhead, the PLAAF can use whatever it wants for CAS, even legacy aircraft. (There's also Strike and SEAD/DEAD, which both happen before CAS/Interdiction.)

As per Indian reports (yeah I know, but hear me out) Rafales are already doing training runs in Himachal Pradesh at night. This shows that the IAF has either fast-tracked their induction process or received some level of combat training prior to receiving the Rafales. You also don't need significant seniority in the Rafale in order to launch standoff air-to-ground weaponry.

If the PLAAF is indeed taking the two-step approach that you suggested then it implies that they're confident about their ability to knock out every single IAF Rafale/Sukhoi/S-400/radar/AA gun in the vicinity of their airfields prior to sending in their obsolete JH-7s. The deployment of Sukhois and Rafales alone makes this plan dubious at best.

I would also be hard-pressed to claim that Chinese AESA + PL-15 can significantly outmatch the AESA-equipped Rafales with Meteor + MICA.

 

[siegecrossbow]

As per Indian reports (yeah I know, but hear me out) Rafales are already doing training runs in Himachal Pradesh at night. This shows that the IAF has either fast-tracked their induction process or received some level of combat training prior to receiving the Rafales. You also don't need significant seniority in the Rafale in order to launch standoff air-to-ground weaponry.

If the PLAAF is indeed taking the two-step approach that you suggested then it implies that they're confident about their ability to knock out every single IAF Rafale/Sukhoi/S-400/radar/AA gun in the vicinity of their airfields prior to sending in their obsolete JH-7s. The deployment of Sukhois and Rafales alone makes this plan dubious at best.

I would also be hard-pressed to claim that Chinese AESA + PL-15 can significantly outmatch the AESA-equipped Rafales with Meteor + MICA.

They have like five Rafales right now...