Chinese Economics Thread

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
For well over a century, the US grew to a superpower using the gold standard. Being on the gold standard allowed for more correctional mechanisms, perhaps at the sacrifice for the speed of growth, and under the gold standard, the US is able to rise from the Great Depression, win World War 2 and outproduce its opponents, and had the greatest economic expansion in its history in the 40s, 50's and 60's.

But under the petrodollar, the US began its slow gradual road of eroding its manufacturing power, began greater income inequality, began to develop trade deficits. The US dollar cannot adjust to trade deficits because of perpetual strong US dollar propped by oil, where under circumstances where you import too much and export too little, your currency is supposed to depreciate to make your exports more price competitive which boosts local manufacturing. Instead, it becomes cheaper and more profitable to continue to import stuff for profit rather than manufacturing those items. Thus your 'free market' isn't free economics at all, and has been broken for decades because the US dollar cannot revaluate based on trade deficits and surplus. Without local manufacturing, US middle class begins to erode as incomes become stagnant taking on 'service jobs' which are like Mcdonald fast food jobs, Amazon warehouse jobs and Uber driver jobs, while inflation on other things, such as cars, rent, homes, and college education, began to rise while middle class income fail to keep up with this. This forces the middle class into debt and more debt to pay for these items.

A good read from investopedia a few months ago on why it's unlikely for the dollar to collapse.

It mainly focuses on 1, the lack of alternatives. 2, other countries, including China and Japan don't want the dollar to collapse.

the U.S. Dollar to Collapse
By SEAN ROSS
Updated Apr 12, 2020

Ever since the launch of quantitative easing (QE), worried investors have asked: "Will the U.S. dollar collapse?" It is an interesting question that might superficially appear plausible, but a currency crisis in the United States is unlikely.

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emblem21

Major
Registered Member
A good read from investopedia a few months ago on why it's unlikely for the dollar to collapse.

It mainly focuses on 1, the lack of alternatives. 2, other countries, including China and Japan don't want the dollar to collapse.

the U.S. Dollar to Collapse
By SEAN ROSS
Updated Apr 12, 2020

Ever since the launch of quantitative easing (QE), worried investors have asked: "Will the U.S. dollar collapse?" It is an interesting question that might superficially appear plausible, but a currency crisis in the United States is unlikely.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
The dollar may not collapse because of either China or Japan but rather due to the actions of the USA on there watch. The months coming to the election will decide the future of the world and all the irresponsible actions of the USA will come back demonstrate just far short they really came. If the events of the passing few weeks are of any indication, things are not going to be pleasant
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
A good read from investopedia a few months ago on why it's unlikely for the dollar to collapse.

It mainly focuses on 1, the lack of alternatives. 2, other countries, including China and Japan don't want the dollar to collapse.

the U.S. Dollar to Collapse
By SEAN ROSS
Updated Apr 12, 2020

Ever since the launch of quantitative easing (QE), worried investors have asked: "Will the U.S. dollar collapse?" It is an interesting question that might superficially appear plausible, but a currency crisis in the United States is unlikely.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Actually, from China's perspective, I think they would prefer the US Dollar to collapse.

Yes, it will hurt China's dollar holdings.
Yes, there will be an overall contraction in global trade and a subsequent hit to the Chinese economy.

But China's economic growth is now dependent on domestic development rather than exports, so China would emerge relatively unscathed.

In comparison, a Dollar collapse would devastate the US economy
As of today, there's only like a 20% difference in economic heft between the USA and China, based on the exchange rate.
So a Dollar collapse would likely vault China past the US economy overnight, and also make it clear that an economically struggling US is pursuing a losing containment strategy against a larger and faster growing Chinese economy. China is already spending more on technology R&D than the USA, as per the National Science Foundation.

In such a scenario, a rational US would stop its trade war and technology war against China.
So going forward, China would have a much smoother development path.
 

2handedswordsman

Junior Member
Registered Member
Τhe situation seems to be like, the Fed prints an infinite amount of money without anyone buying bonds. Its legalization leads to the possibility of producing money with a face value that does not correspond to anything material, not even paper bonds. It is a gross deception and could theoretically lead the government to give stimuluses forever without anyone having to produce real value aka, work!! This leads the dollar to lose credibility as a measure of value. The dollar may artificially not be devalued , but soon many countries are going to disengage from because this is theft! How you demand me to give you real material value and pay me thin air? Ok, the 6th fleet can ensure me that maybe there is some value in that air :p
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Actually, from China's perspective, I think they would prefer the US Dollar to collapse.

Yes, it will hurt China's dollar holdings.
Yes, there will be an overall contraction in global trade and a subsequent hit to the Chinese economy.

But China's economic growth is now dependent on domestic development rather than exports, so China would emerge relatively unscathed.

In comparison, a Dollar collapse would devastate the US economy
As of today, there's only like a 20% difference in economic heft between the USA and China, based on the exchange rate.
So a Dollar collapse would likely vault China past the US economy overnight, and also make it clear that an economically struggling US is pursuing a losing containment strategy against a larger and faster growing Chinese economy. China is already spending more on technology R&D than the USA, as per the National Science Foundation.

In such a scenario, a rational US would stop its trade war and technology war against China.
So going forward, China would have a much smoother development path.

I'm not so sure about that. Because if it is. Surly China would be working to bring the collapse of the dollar. I think in the long run it's in China's interest to dethroned US dollar as the world's reserve currency. But China need to be smart in how best this goal be achieved with minimum damage to China
 

advill

Junior Member
I would like to share the wise words of Confucius (551-479) “Only the wise person can unite the magnanimity, generorisity, benevolence and gentleness needed for getting along with others; the serenity, seriousness, unwariness and thoroughness needed for exercising SOUND JUDGEMENT.” This is Good advise for Economists, Politicians, Military Leaders & Commentators in this chat group. Narrow minded chaps will not agree or understand this Confucian philosophy. That’s OK as to each his own.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm not so sure about that. Because if it is. Surly China would be working to bring the collapse of the dollar. I think in the long run it's in China's interest to dethroned US dollar as the world's reserve currency. But China need to be smart in how best this goal be achieved with minimum damage to China

I said China would *prefer* a dollar collapse

There's a difference between what China would like to happen, versus how much effort China wants to put into making it happen.

Before the trade and technology war, it wasn't in China's interest to have a messy Dollar collapse. But now, I don't think China would bother propping up the dollar if there is a crisis.
 
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