Chinese Economics Thread

SimaQian

Junior Member
Registered Member
Last Q of 2020 will be huge for China. Signing of RCEP, which will be the largest multilateral FTA. Signing of Iran-China trade deal that will see CPEC extend from Pakistan all the way to Turkey, along the way taking in Iran and 4 *tan nations. India's Chabahar Port will probably be implemented into CPEC by Iran, since India is still dilly dallying on playing both side of Iran/US. China will probably rent out Port of Jask from Iran and develop it into a mega port, rendering decades of US efforts building military bases along Strait of Hormuz useless.

Advancement of Saudi China relation will see Saudi willing to accept rmb into oil transaction with China. Power of Siberia 2 pipeline in talk. All the while South East Asian nations are building up rmb in their nationals reserves and switch to non USD settlement currency.
I cannot find any news on this Saudi accepting RMB. Any reference?
 

advill

Junior Member
The Success of the Global Economy is in the hands of ALL nations, without exception. There can be disagreements on Trade & Investments between countries, BUT these have to be solved expeditiously and satisfactorily, WITHOUT trade wars and national self-interests. Regretfully, domestic politics have influenced foreign policies. These coupled with Covid-19 Pandemic and the display of Military Might, influenced Economic Policies on Trade & Investments. Time for leaders of nations to re-consider whether what they implement are for the benefit of their people, OR is it for their own Personal/Party political agendas.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Check out @LukeGromen on twitter. Its not written down directly anywhere, but concluded through discrepancies in Saudi data.

This is very interesting.

It makes sense for Saudi Arabia to settle oil trade in RMB instead of the US Dollar.

Of course, I doubt we'll see this announced officially by either China or Saudi.
 

bajingan

Senior Member
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An article from scmp mentions that the us could cut off access to credit card services especially master cards, visa, amex by denying swift services to a specific bank or to any of its 200 participating countries

How likely will the us take this extreme measure? Will it not doom the us dollar were it to happen?
 

SimaQian

Junior Member
Registered Member
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An article from scmp mentions that the us could cut off access to credit card services especially master cards, visa, amex by denying swift services to a specific bank or to any of its 200 participating countries

How likely will the us take this extreme measure? Will it not doom the us dollar were it to happen?

If this would go through, this would be actually a win for local digital payments - Octopus, alipay, tencent pay all others and local merchants. Every Visa/master transaction, almost 3% goes to the banks, visa corp.

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In comparison to Tencent Pay or Alipay which is at 0.6 %

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.

or Octopus which is max at 1.5%. (I knew octopus very well because one of my projects before involved settlement processing with octopus).

The losers will be visa/master card and all the issuing banks. The winners will be the merchants and consumers (prices can be lowered to maybe 2 %).

Thats why VISA/mastercard hates so much the Alipay/Tencent pay model. Think of it if it will multiply to whole world.
They are getting billions just for settlement processing fee alone.

Side note:

The DCEP will be the natural counter to the Alipay and Tencent Pay behemoths. The Chinese government probably see that they cant let these two to have so much financial power. So maybe 5 years from now Alipay and Tencent pay will have only minority share in settlement processing if DCEP is fully rolled out.
 
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