Ladakh Flash Point

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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Does it really matter? It's all important for the Indians to be able to save face here. Through their media, we've seen exactly how touchy they are and willing to engage in self-destructive acts; it reminds me of May Fourth where the entire sequence of Japanese military imperialism was triggered by Chinese boycotts. If China wasn't a market for the Japanese, China became instead a target to conquer.

The best case scenario is still that all three sides negotiate a permanent border demarcation, perhaps with the return of Siachen to Pakistan, because the whole South India region is strategically worthless to China.

First, the border connections across the Himalayas, no matter how hard China tries, are going to be garbage. Second, India can't pose a valid threat to China because the Chinese control Tibet and have tons of ballistic missiles, including missiles that can blow up InN ships trying to interdict Chinese shipping. Third, China's main area of concern is East Asia, which has traditionally been China's sphere of influence.

I mean, you can jerk off about helping Pakistan retake Kashmir, but it's an extremely difficult matter given the Indian tank mass and the fact that except for Kashmir, the Indo-Pakistan border is tank territory.

Who's jerking off about helping Pakistan retake all of Kashmir? Who ever said that? I think the word Kashmir was dropped and you've proceeded to go off your head in wild speculations, accusations, and conclusions. Calm down. Kashmir is a Pak-India issue. Pakistan however is a close ally of China so that is the only place where it comes in to the question. However this doesn't mean China is going to take over all of Kashmir on behalf of anyone.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
Who's jerking off about helping Pakistan retake all of Kashmir? Who ever said that? I think the word Kashmir was dropped and you've proceeded to go off your head in wild speculations, accusations, and conclusions. Calm down. Kashmir is a Pak-India issue. Pakistan however is a close ally of China so that is the only place where it comes in to the question. However this doesn't mean China is going to take over all of Kashmir on behalf of anyone.
I think he means that if there is a conflict between China and India (let's say over the Galwan Valley), Pakistan will intervene and join forces with China to invade Kashmir, which will likely be a theatre of conflict. This scenario is definitely plausible imo. I really can't see a reason why Pakistan would not take advantage of such conflict militarily, especially given the ever worsening ties with India and the strengthening ties with China.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think he means that if there is a conflict between China and India (let's say over the Galwan Valley), Pakistan will intervene and join forces with China to invade Kashmir, which will likely be a theatre of conflict. This scenario is definitely plausible imo. I really can't see a reason why Pakistan would not take advantage of such conflict militarily, especially given the ever worsening ties with India and the strengthening ties with China.

Plausible except Indian leaders have been shown their place and are behaving now. They have totally avoided conflict and have now properly and officially agreed to China's demands otherwise there would have been escalations by now.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't know why Indian media is celebrating victory over a minor adjustment of forces,especially when Indian Army has withdrawn from its own claimed area,strange

Because even a PLA soldier taking a toilet break is news to them and will be reported as PLA showing weakness. So any movement from PLA is interpreted with exaggerated conclusions. The bhakts are such a pathetic sad crowd. I've never seen any group sink so low. Even the Turks and Greek, Russian trashtalking doesn't come close to bhakts. Who cares, their delusions don't change the real world. In fact it hinders them further. This is the other side of the coin for these annoying internet trolls.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Pravin S is one of the most balanced analysts and must be heard by Indian establishment.Watch this video.

He is good, but a little too alarmist.

Yes, China does have all the advantages in those non-traditional fields that he described, but those are capabilities that are not meant for India.

Chinese conventional military dominance over India is so overwhelming that the PLA has no need to employ any of those non-traditional capabilities for fear of tipping their hand to the US, for whom those capabilities are actually developed to counter

Other then very small scale and almost certainly extremely secretive proof-of-concept tests (ie they will be employed against specific Indian units, and as soon as success or failure is established, said Indian units will be promptly captured or obliterated by conventional PLA forces to ensure no evidence or reports of such tests are ever leaked to the wider world. The most explicit evidence we are likely to see of such tests is if isolated and completely irrelevant Indian units suffer unusually comprehensive overkill or is taken out by PLA tier one operators, but again, we are not likely to hear of stories if PLA tier one guys are involved until maybe decades later); I do not expect to see any of those capabilities employed on any hot war between China and India.

The only non-traditional capabilities the PLA might employ on a meaningful scale would be passive capabilities that the PLA could safely employ without leaving any evidence.

Another likely quirk of any clash between India and China might be the extensive use of Russian made weapons by both sides.

The PLA would have a lot of Russian munitions they purchased that are nearing the end of their useful lives, so that would actually be the perfect way to make use of them.

In addition, using Russian weapons, and especially sensors and EW, would ensure India does not capture wartime operating frequencies of PLA frontline primary systems.

The Chinese would obviously also use their own stuff, but with datalinks, they could easily reserve their own radars and EW for emergency use only, while they can go active with Russian radars and EW all day long.
 
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