Chinese Economics Thread

Jul 15, 2018
Mar 26, 2018
and now I read
China records 17.6 mln newborns in 2017
Xinhua| 2018-07-15 11:21:46
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think I have posted posted 2018 figure, too, but can't find that post right now, anyway it's 14.65 million for 2019:
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was curious: "around 15.2 million" in 2018 according to
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EDIT this topic has actually interested me for some time, as in Mar 27, 2018
I recalled I had had a discussion with sol..., now found it:
Dec 29, 2016


in response:
Dec 29, 2016


him replying:
Dec 29, 2016

not sure how his recent posts on this topic fit
 
Last edited:

Gatekeeper

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Well, looks like Boris and the UK will get there Huawei one way or another, despite "security" fears, threats and arm-twisting from Trump, and the USA!

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BT and Vodafone to lobby PM to allow use of Huawei equipment


CEOs Philip Jansen and Nick Read say they have seen no evidence that warrants ban

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Gatekeeper

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I cannot hold my disappointment back with this Xi administration. I maybe need a week to recover from this bitter pil. They fail when confronted with American agression. Huawei sanctions, ZTE sanctions, kidnapping of Meng Wanzhou since 1 December 2018 because Huawei is successfull with 5G, sanctions against numerous Chinese artificial intelligence start-ups, tarrifs, ban on delivery of ASML lithiography and want does Xi Jinping and his administration do?

They sign a totally one-sided 'phase one trade deal' (in reality an unequal treaty and the Wikipedia should be updated to include the most recent setback) with numerous concessions like $200 billion dollars of additional purchases from 1 January 2020 until 31 December 2021, opening up of financial services market, cannot ask foreign companies that set up shop in China to give in return some technology and more. What have they gotten in return? Zero, noppes.

The only thing that is left is that they kneel and give up their economic system like industrial subsidies and industrial plans (Made in China 2025). ICheck media like Global Times and Xinhua. I see no fighting spirit but already articles about a phase to unequal treaty. That is the last thing that Americans seek and they have kneecapped China. Jesus Confucius Maria I want to shoot Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang for the signing of this unequal treaty. Liu He I have no problems with he simply follows orders. Really, a leader like Mao that never buckled under foreign threats was a miracle like you seldom see. Bureaucrats and princelings..... What for message does this send. They embolden not only Americans but also EU and Japan because of severe weakened international reputation that China bends the knee when confronted with long term agression. Damn you Xi, damn you.

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Love it, Patience my friend. Patience is a virtual!
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
The GDP of China in 2019 was 99.085 trillion Yuan up from 91.93 trillion Yuan in 2018.
On USD term, if we take mix rate of 6.9 Yuan per USD for the year 2019, the GDP should be 14.36 trillion USD now, and per capita 10250 USD.

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the growth is (99.085-91.93) = 7.1T Yuan or 1.04T USD or roughly the same size of Indonesian economy or 2x Taiwanese or Belgium or Iran, etc .... or 3x Hongkong, Malaysian, South African ... wowwww

Also the growth in % is (99.085-91.93)/91.93 = 7.7% in nominal before adjusted to inflation
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Continuous population growth is a double edged sword. As population grows, more people are required to support those before them. It is a continuous cycle with no end in sight around the world, our planet earth in it's current course is doomed. We are condemning those future generations for our own interest.The solution is for a better life with out the crowd depleting earth limited resources. Personally I believe in quality of life rather than quantity. Perhaps a declining population growth is nature trying to save itself, and that is not a bad thing.

and who is going to pay/take care of you when you reach elderly?
 

Gatekeeper

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In 20 or 30 years, when China's economy is larger than America's you'll still curse this moment because Xi Jinping didn't yell loud enough.

China is already larger than USA in PPP term. And in dollar term, it shouldn't be that long. Because mathes my friend. If an economy is growing at 7% per year, that economy will double in size in ten years.

Currently, China is growing at 6% so it'll be 12 years. Given China is approx.14 trillion, china would be 28 trillion in 12 years time.

Where as USA is growing at an average 2.5% per year. This means it will grow about 1/3 in the same time span. So at approx 21 trillion now, it will be at 27 trillion in the same time span!

So all thing being equal, it should only be 10 years before USA hand over to China as the world's largest economy in dollar term.
 

Gatekeeper

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China should NOT sacrifice its other trading partners for the Americans. China should not sacrifice its credibility with other countries for the Americans. Its better to have a fight with one country than with a whole bunch of countries. And the Americans are a threat to China those other countries are not. So like I said the best solution is to frontload and spread the 200 billion over more than 2 years. Or just try to get out of the deal which I think is bad. China should have never agreed to the 200 billion dollars worth of purchase.

PS the EU is already complaining about the deal and might go to the WTO on this. I hope they succeed!

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Yes, you probably right. In any case, I don't think China need to ditch their other trading partners. It was only a suggestion as a last resort type of thing.

As PLAwolf suggest, China could just simply use up its reserves. That will hurt their bonds market as well.
 

Gatekeeper

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Registered Member
View attachment 56781

I guess 6.1% is horrible. lol

I just loce this, I have been seeing this for the past 5 to 10 years. When growth started to slow from the double digit rate down to the present rate.

The doom and gloom merchants all had their knives out. Even my friends and cohorts all sound the alarm bells.

And as I have said to them, and I say it here: Any country in the west would give their right arm to have this doom and gloom growth rate of 6%!

And these same doom and gloom merchants all shout from the top of how great India's economy is during the same period........ with the same sort of growth rate??? Mmmm.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Continuous population growth is a double edged sword. As population grows, more people are required to support those before them. It is a continuous cycle with no end in sight around the world, our planet earth in it's current course is doomed. We are condemning those future generations for our own interest.The solution is for a better life with out the crowd depleting earth limited resources. Personally I believe in quality of life rather than quantity. Perhaps a declining population growth is nature trying to save itself, and that is not a bad thing.

Look at India! They always crow about their population grow will enable them to overtake China. Well good luck with that. More mouths to feed and house. It's not as though there don't have these kinds of problems!
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
Look at India! They always crow about their population grow will enable them to overtake China. Well good luck with that. More mouths to feed and house. It's not as though there don't have these kinds of problems!
It's not just the quantity of population, but the quality of it. Having 1.4 billion literate and well educated people is much better than 1 billion peasants that live on farming just enough to survive.

India will squander their population dividend if they can't keep them fed and educated. A billion poor is actually a drag on the economy.

Considering automation and AI coming out, having a smaller population is actually good. There just won't be that many manufacturing jobs to go around.
 
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