Chinese Economics Thread

[solarz]

When should we expect the cost to drop? In any case, there's no guarantee of an increase.

Of course, the policy itself also limits the birth rate.

I think right now, most families are not limited by the policy; they are limited by their own abilities to take responsible care of these children. BUT just due to the sheer size of China's population, there are also many families that could afford to and would want to have 4 or more children if the policy did not limit them. So if the policy were lifted, the majority of the growth is expected to come from those families.

Considering that most of those families would be from poor rural areas, lifting the limit would just create more poverty.

China's birth rates are not the problem, the problem is the aging boomers and the burden they place on the post-80's. Having more babies now won't help with the problem and would only make it worse. The post-80's will just have to bear it, as this is literally the worst phase of the transition. Compared to what our parents had to go through though, this isn't even that bad.

 

[Klon]

Considering that most of those families would be from poor rural areas, lifting the limit would just create more poverty.

China's birth rates are not the problem, the problem is the aging boomers and the burden they place on the post-80's. Having more babies now won't help with the problem and would only make it worse. The post-80's will just have to bear it, as this is literally the worst phase of the transition. Compared to what our parents had to go through though, this isn't even that bad.

Problem or not, the fact is that the fertility rate is below replacement, leading to a long term aging and shrinking of the population. If China doesn't want a population decline, more babies are necessary.

It's also nowhere close to the "worst phase of the transition", as the working-age population has just peaked and will soon enter a decline and the old-age population is skyrocketing. You could say the transition is just starting.

Here's another easy prediction. Without a significant increase in the total fertility rate (number of children per woman), China's birth rate (births per 1000 people or just the number of children born) will fall over the next 15 years because of the changing population structure (and the sub-replacement fertility).

 

[taxiya]

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Shanghai crude futures started trading on Monday, the beginning of petro-Yuan and a further step of RMB's globalization. I suggest Trump to accept RMB payment if he want China to import more American LNG (I heard something in this line recently).

 

[supercat]

Some news from China's auto industry:

For the first time, a Chinese car brand will be built in Europe
Lynk SUVs to start production in Belgium next year

Volvo cars, owned by China’s Geely, has announced it will begin production of Lynk & Co sport-utility vehicles in Belgium, marking the first time a Chinese auto brand has been manufactured in Europe.

“We see a big potential for this new brand entering the European market and we are happy to give Lynk & Co the support of Volvo’s technological and industrial expertise,” Volvo Cars Chief Executive Hakan Samuelsson was

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as saying in a statement.

The move is part of Geely owner Li Shufu’s broader efforts to expand the Chinese automaker’s presence in the region. Last month, it was disclosed that Li had become the largest shareholder of Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler, a development that follows his acquisitions of London Taxi Co and Volvo.

“We will manufacture in Europe, for Europe, focusing initially on hybrid-only electrified derivatives of our new range of cars,” Alain Visser, Lynk CEO said in a statement.

Lynk’s O1 model and potential future additions are reportedly able to be manufactured on the same production lines as the Volvo XC40, creating cost savings and the ability to ramp up production quickly.

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Great Wall Motor Bets on Overseas Markets for Next Growth Wave

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Motor Co., the king of sport utility vehicles in China, is feeling the rising heat from competition. After reporting earnings that more than halved last year, it is now turning to potential customers abroad for its next phase of growth.

The Baoding city-based automaker will initially focus on countries such as Russia and those in the Middle East that have similar regulations as China, founder and Chairman Wei Jianjun told reporters in Hong Kong on Monday. The company will build its vehicles in Russia, with a factory capable of rolling out 80,000 vehicles annually set to start operations in 2019, he said. Plans to sell cars in the U.S. starting 2021 are also on the cards, he said.

The nation’s automobile industry is spreading its wings and eyeing the global buyer at a time trade tensions between the U.S. and China are clouding prospects for world commerce. Current U.S. import duties are still competitive and any future adverse changes may prompt his company to review its plans for the U.S., Wei said.

Great Wall reported on Friday that its profit fell by 52 percent last year to 5.03 billion yuan ($796 million) as it spent more on incentives and discounts to help secure market share.

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[LesAdieux]

amid trade tension with the US, China rolls out the Yuan denominated oil-future trading today

currently, there are three oil future trades: Chicago-WTI, London-Brent, and Dubai-Aman, all traded in USD.

Navarro is not going to like this, to him this is a strategic move by a strategic adversary to undermine the dollar.

China has been working on this for years, it's a big move, but it will take time for the impact to be seen.

a strong debut

day one trading volume: 70k contracts, roughly 1/3 of those of WTI and Brent, 10 times of Dubai, it's a very strong start.

Yuan/RMB has certain advantages over other currencies in commodity pricing:

China is THE largest buyer of virtually all commodities;

China is the largest producer and largest trader;

high saving rate and high trading surplus means large capital export.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Not even a pretty please?

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China rejecting foreign garbage is a WTO violation? Maybe Joe Biden will charge this is also the act of only dictatorships because they always use sovereign rights as an excuse not to do what the West orders them to do.

 

[solarz]

Problem or not, the fact is that the fertility rate is below replacement, leading to a long term aging and shrinking of the population. If China doesn't want a population decline, more babies are necessary.

It's also nowhere close to the "worst phase of the transition", as the working-age population has just peaked and will soon enter a decline and the old-age population is skyrocketing. You could say the transition is just starting.

Here's another easy prediction. Without a significant increase in the total fertility rate (number of children per woman), China's birth rate (births per 1000 people or just the number of children born) will fall over the next 15 years because of the changing population structure (and the sub-replacement fertility).

Dude, are you even remotely familiar with China?

Of course China wants a population decline! That was the whole point of the one-child policy!

The idea is to achieve a population decline while minimizing demographic turbulence.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I watched a short vid (don't know how to link it here) inside the tweet

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Alibaba launches car vending machine in Guangzhou, south China

 

[Klon]

Dude, are you even remotely familiar with China?

Of course China wants a population decline! That was the whole point of the one-child policy!

The idea is to achieve a population decline while minimizing demographic turbulence.

I must have been misled into thinking otherwise by the pushback I received the last time I posted about Chinese demographics, when a number of posters apparently disagreed with projections saying there will be a decline, citing everything from the recent policy change to immigration and the number of kids people from Guizhou, Shanxi and Anhui want. So I guess the confusion must be pretty widespread, or someone would have just noted that a declining population reflects things going according to plan.

 

[Jura The idiot]

I must have been misled into thinking otherwise by the pushback I received the last time I posted about Chinese demographics, when a number of posters apparently disagreed with projections saying there will be a decline, citing everything from the recent policy change to immigration and the number of kids people from Guizhou, Shanxi and Anhui want. So I guess the confusion must be pretty widespread, or someone would have just noted that a declining population reflects things going according to plan.

I recalled I had had a discussion with sol..., now found it:
Dec 29, 2016

Remember how a while ago, western media were all saying China's liberalization of its family-planning policy was too little too late, and how Chinese people don't want to have more children anymore?

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in response:
Dec 29, 2016

I read:

[referring to that Bangkok Post article; I've now checked it's still available]

which left me with an impression the tendency to have a second child is higher for rich couples
(- Bed of jade - part of the article)
than for the rest
(- 'Very hesitant' – part of the article)

him replying:
Dec 29, 2016

Rich or poor, there are a million extra babies.

not sure how his recent posts on this topic fit