Taiwan's Reaction to PLA Force Modernization

[unknauthr]

It looks like the ROC is finally going to move forward with some of the long-delayed arms purchases from the US, that were being held-up in their parliament for the past six years.

There appears to be a commitment to finally fund the weapons package first approved for export by the US in 2001:

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This package would include 12 anti-submarine warfare aircraft (P-3 Orions), 8 diesel-electric submarines, and 6 Patriot PAC-III anti-missile batteries.

More recently, the White House approved the sale of another 218 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, and 235 Maverick air-to-ground missiles, just this week.

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The long talked about purchase of another batch of F-16s will probably not be too far behind.

I wonder if they're getting nervous now that the J-10 is being fielded within striking distance . . .


For anyone who missed it, the ROC's generals have been making their rounds ever since the J-10 was officially unveiled, stirring up support for fresh arms purchases. The following is an article from a few weeks back:

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In the words of Major General Wang Jeng-shiao, "Armed with these airplanes [the J-10], as well as Su-27s and Su-30s, China will have air supremacy over Taiwan".

 

[bd popeye]

8 SSK's? Who's going to build it? No shipyard in the US has built an SS in over 40 years. And when will they be delivered?

Thank you.

 

[planeman]

Patriot PACIII is awesome system but does this point to disapointment of indigenous SAMs? Pity, diversity is the spice of life.

 

[crobato]

I think the PAC-3 also doubles as an anti missile defense, which the TK-2 cannot currently do. Much like their neighbors across the straits, the purchase of foreign systems cannot be used as a conclusion pointing the disappointment of local systems. Their local long range SAM systems and radars are comparable to a land based AEGIS system, which is no empty allusion since Raytheon also partnered in these projects.

 

[optionsss]

8 SSK's? Who's going to build it? No shipyard in the US has built an SS in over 40 years. And when will they be delivered?

Thank you.

新网7月26日电 24日出刊的最新一期美国《国防新闻》周刊分析认为，美国国防部6月致函台湾，同意潜艇购买案分两阶段实施，虽然是美台军事互动的“正面进展”，但这封信也等于是对台湾的“最后通牒”。


　　据“中央社”报道，周刊称，美国国防部主管亚太事务的副助理部长劳里斯6月27日以正式文书致函台“防长”李杰，表达同意台湾建议，将原本台湾计划向美购买的8艘柴油潜艇的军购案，调整为两阶段进行。第一步先由台湾编列3.6亿美元，由美方展开研发工程；对于未来实际建造潜艇的费用，再进行第二阶段报价。

　　这一篇发自台北的报道说，劳里斯信中明确反对台湾“中船”公司参与建造潜艇的提议。报道引述，台湾有130多位“立委”联署，表示除非台湾的产业能参与潜艇制造工程，否则他们将反对潜艇军购案。但劳里斯在信中明言，“美国政府不会授权也不会协助台湾发展制造潜艇，美国政府也不会提供潜艇设计能力给台湾”。

　　有泛蓝“立委”则表示，劳里斯这封信未能解答诸多争议性问题，包括潜艇价格、制造完成期限、具体战略用途、以及到底由哪一国制造。

　　报道最后引用美国迈阿密大学国防专家金德芳的意见，指劳里斯的信，表达对台湾政治现状的体谅与理解并愿意进行配合调整，但也明确直言这项军购案的限度，就是不会协助提升台湾有关制造潜艇的各项能力。

　　金德芳说，“既然价格是台湾关切的主因，美国五角大厦表示同意并配合台湾进行两阶段模式，这同时也应该被严肃视为美国进行最后通牒的外交宣示，意即请立即决定，否则干脆拉倒。”

According to this Chinese article and most other related to the SSK purchases, Taiwan will first pay the US 360 million to design submarines, then they will discuss further about the cost and production of each subs. There are some speculations the production cost for the 8 subs would be around 8 billion to 12 billion, will atleast the bill Taiwan have to pay would be that much. The subs are super expensive partially because the typical rip-off and the fact US will have to do some outsourcing (from the Europeans). One of the names kept coming up was the Gotland class from the Swedish navy as a partner, probably providing the engines and some other necessary parts. That would make these SSK quit powerful with the AIPs, but these are just speculations. The first time when the Taiwan discussed about the military purchase the SSKs got killed, so I don't think they(ROC & US) moved to the delivery part.

 

[Pointblank]

according to this Chinese article and most other related to the SSK purchases Taiwan will first pay the US 360million to design submarines, then they will discuss further about the cost of each subs. There are some speculation the production cost for the 8 subs would be around 8 billion to 12 billion. The subs are super expensive partially because the typical rip-off and the fact US will have to do some outsourcing (from the Europeans). One of the names kept coming up was the Gotland class from the Swedish navy as a partner, probably providing the engines and some other necessary parts. That would make these SSK quit powerful with the AIPs, but these are just speculations. The first time when the Taiwan discussed about the military purchase the SSKs got killed, so I don't think they(ROC & US) moved to the delivery part.

The USN won't like it... they are going to worry that Congress might just make the USN buy SSK's over SSN's...

 

[hongkongpride]

An interesting fact here in the submarines for Taiwan

As Pointblank said:

"One of the names kept coming up was the Gotland class from the Swedish navy as a partner, probably providing the engines and some other necessary parts. That would make these SSK quite powerful with the AIPs, but these are just speculations"-

That is correct but the problem is that no US shipyard has built an SSK for over 40 years. However, an interesting fact is that while the corrupt KMT keep on blocking the arms defence bill (at last count more than 70 times)-no political party in Taiwan has kicked up a fuss about the $US360 million=US$8bn-12bn that was earmarked for the "design of submarines". In 2004, the USN leased the entire crew and submarine HMS Gotland from the Swedish Navy for anti submarine warfare exercises-and extended their loan past 2006 just last year to about 2008.

In 2001 the Bush Administration offered Taiwan the 8 subs but there has seemingly been no activity for the last 6 years. However, there have only been about 10 ASuW exercises/year in the last three years based on the USN's averge ASuW drills, each lasting about two weeks each. That means a lot of "free time" for the HMS Gotland. So I bet the USN, Lockheed Martin or Northrop Grumman via Bath Iron Works or Newport News Shipbuilding have been busy copying the Gotland down to the last screw and reverse engineering the entire sub for Taiwan with the help of the Swedish crew, explaining the $360million+US$8bn-12bn.

If the "Gotlands" or "Tailands" turn up unexpectedly in the middle of a crisis in Taiwan Strait and turn the tide in the ROCN's favor it would be a feat worthy of Sun Tzu (the master of deception) himself.

 

[eecsmaster]

an SSK turning up in the straits......where is it going to dock?

 

[hongkongpride]

Sorry man,

didn't make it clear enough.

Wandering into the realm of speculation here, IF this was to happen then probably only 2-3 subs would make a sortie into the Straits to engage in ASuW and ASW-since we're assuming Tsoying and Kaohsiung Naval bases would be offline due to heavy M-9 and M-11 SRBM strikes, as would most naval bases on Taiwan,

There would only four possible docks for the "gotland" clones due to the political situation, either a sub pen built into a mountain or something like that-which I doubt Taiwan has got, a naval base in the Phillipines under US control, a base in Vietnam-very unlikely though or the most likely, Yokohama Navy Base which is home to the Kitty Hawk CVBG (redeployed I think as of 2007) and features Patriot PAC-III and Aegis Ballistic Missile defenses which are effective against M-9/M-11 SRBMS and most ballistic missiles with the exception of the new DF-31.

 

[Deleted member 675]

It looks like the ROC is finally going to move forward with some of the long-delayed arms purchases from the US, that were being held-up in their parliament for the past six years.

In some respect it's old news, because the budgets were agreed last year. But political manoeuvring over elections and bills meant they were never given final approval. However because the central budget has already been held up for two months that can't go on much longer - there will probably be a vote next week.

For anyone who missed it, the ROC's generals have been making their rounds ever since the J-10 was officially unveiled, stirring up support for fresh arms purchases.

Hehe, they're being very sly. I can't remember where, but there was an article that said privately they weren't nearly as concerned as they've been letting on in public, even if of course it's an improvement for the PLAAF.

Patriot PACIII is awesome system but does this point to disapointment of indigenous SAMs? Pity, diversity is the spice of life.

Well the Taiwanese do have the ATBM system (supposedly) coming into service this year. Although it builds on Patriot technology, it was designed and made in Taiwan.