J-XY/J-35 carrier-borne fighter thread

[Brumby]

There is no official claim, just leaks. The 15T number came because the person who described the J-20 as 16T class described the F-22 as 20T class, so there was the assumption that when he says "class," be means less than, so up to 15.99T was the interpretation. However, the next person said that the weight with AL-31X is just under Su-27 empty weight (16.38 tonnes) and with WS-10X is just over Su-27 empty weight, meaning it is around 16.4T. Then, after a long while, the third person said that those who wanted the J-20 to be in the 16T range will be disappointed to learn that it is now 17.5 tonnes in production form. So I believe the last number, 17.5 tonnes. I'm not sure which big Shrimp it was but I think it was a fellow who worked in the WS-10 factory.

You did not understand Brat correctly. He said it's basically not possible to achieve a 40% reduction in these parts based on his limited understanding of 3D printing. And that's actually the less ignorant claim; his other claim is that regardless of what Chengdu or AVIC or any PICTURES say, welding and machining are still the dominant standard used for manufacturing the load-bearing components of the J-20. He just knows that from "experience." LOL


There are no qualified "experts" who claim a 19 ton weight in the J-20 unless you count those people who said J-20 is likely a 75 foot long bomb truck as experts. There are only insiders, one who says that the jet is in the 16 tonne-range after interviewing AVIC (just under the Su-27), and another who said that the weight had increased to 17.5 tonnes.

The 19 tonne figure is completely fictitious, fabricated by people "eye-balling" the aircraft. They used to say they eyeball it at 21 tonnes, and then when leaks came out that it was in the 16-17.5 tonne range, they thought they'd average their eyeball guesstimate with the leaked number or some other equally nonsensical way of calculation to arrive at 19 tonnes.

Which Chinese experts claimed J-20 is 19T? The "official" weight claims of J-20 is 16T. I've read 15T in some places in the past. Literally no one of any supposed importance have mentioned 19T.

There is no official claim, just leaks. The 15T number came because the person who described the J-20 as 16T class described the F-22 as 20T class, so there was the assumption that when he says "class," be means less than, so up to 15.99T was the interpretation. However, the next person said that the weight with AL-31X is just under Su-27 empty weight (16.38 tonnes) and with WS-10X is just over Su-27 empty weight, meaning it is around 16.4T. Then, after a long while, the third person said that those who wanted the J-20 to be in the 16T range will be disappointed to learn that it is now 17.5 tonnes in production form. So I believe the last number, 17.5 tonnes. I'm not sure which big Shrimp it was but I think it was a fellow who worked in the WS-10 factory.

So the basis of your claim of "official" is the qualified "expert" who supposedly worked in the WS-10 factory. Janitor maybe? Btw how is WS-10 connected to classified data on J-20? You guys stretch the meaning of flexible argument when it suits. Lol.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Oh goodness you need to be much more intelligent than that.

So the basis of your claim of "official" is the qualified "expert" who supposedly worked in the WS-10 factory.

That is a big shrimp; keep up with China-military watching. If you like only Western published information, there is no reason for you to be on this forum. We aim to delve deeper here than Kyle Mizokami or Washington Post, m'kay?

Janitor maybe?

Engineer. But even a janitor who might hear some cafeteria chatter has more accurate information on China's classified projects than any Western "analyst" who sees and J-20 and says it's a 75 foot bomb-truck. At least the janitor most likely knows that this is the 5th gen fighter project crew that he's cleaning up after.

Btw how is WS-10 connected to classified data on J-20?

It's the J-20's engines, darling! They fit into the J-20! The engine manufacturers know not only the weight of the aircraft but also the distribution of weight too. You know what thrust-to-weight ratio means? How do you calculate that without knowing the weight? Hello! Anybody home? LOL

You guys stretch the meaning of flexible argument when it suits. Lol.

Such a stretch, right?! So difficult to understand! What do the engines of the jet have to do with anything?! It's crazy; like why would an engine designer care about the size and weight of the car it's meant for, right? He's just a nosy guy! LOLOL

Anybody who has difficulty seeing the connection is probably not suitable for Chinese military watching... or any activity that requires thinking...

 

[Brumby]

Oh goodness you need to be much more intelligent than that.

That is a big shrimp; keep up with China-military watching. If you like only Western published information, there is no reason for you to be on this forum. We aim to delve deeper here than Kyle Mizokami, m'kay?

Whether I am on this forum is not for you to decide. I noticed it is almost a default position when the unpleasant questions are asked. It may be how the CCP operates but this forum is not an extension of it. Just because you deem your source as authoritative doesn't make it to others - not especially a nameless individual who may work in a WS-10 and who may know the weight. That is your definition of "official" and your meaning of deep delve. That is laughable. . .

Engineer. But even a janitor who might hear some cafeteria chatter has more accurate information on China's classified projects than any Western "analyst" who sees and J-20 and says it's a 75 foot bomb-truck. At least the janitor most likely knows that this is the 5th gen fighter project crew that he's cleaning up after.

You guys are just guessing like everyone else with plenty of assumptions in between.

​

It's the J-20's engines, darling! They fit into the J-20! The engine manufacturers know not only the weight of the aircraft but also the distribution of weight too. You know what thrust-to-weight ratio means? How do you calculate that without knowing the weight? Hello! Anybody home? LOL

… except your whole argument is predicated on an individual who may be working in the WS-10 factory, who may be an engineer, who may be working on the and J-20 and who may be providing the correct classified data and have not been put in jail. There are a lot of assumptions for your "official" source.

Such a stretch, right?! So difficult to understand! What do the engines of the jet have to do with anything?! It's crazy; like why would an engine designer care about the size and weight of the car it's meant for, right?

Anybody who has difficulty seeing the connection is probably not suitable for Chinese military watching... or any activity that requires thinking...

The problem is your arguments are predicated on assumptions so big that a truck can drive through it.

 

[Yodello]

Whether I am on this forum is not for you to decide. I noticed it is almost a default position when the unpleasant questions are asked. It may be how the CCP operates but this forum is not an extension of it. Just because you deem your source as authoritative doesn't make it to others - not especially a nameless individual who may work in a WS-10 and who may know the weight. That is your definition of "official" and your meaning of deep delve. That is laughable. . .


You guys are just guessing like everyone else with plenty of assumptions in between.

​

… except your whole argument is predicated on an individual who may be working in the WS-10 factory, who may be an engineer, who may be working on the and J-20 and who may be providing the correct classified data and have not been put in jail. There are a lot of assumptions for your "official" source.


The problem is your arguments are predicated on assumptions so big that a truck can drive through it.

If you deem his source as 'not authoritative', than please do us a favor and name your source.
He has made a more valid argument than you.

 

[ougoah]

Whether I am on this forum is not for you to decide. I noticed it is almost a default position when the unpleasant questions are asked. It may be how the CCP operates but this forum is not an extension of it. Just because you deem your source as authoritative doesn't make it to others - not especially a nameless individual who may work in a WS-10 and who may know the weight. That is your definition of "official" and your meaning of deep delve. That is laughable. . .


You guys are just guessing like everyone else with plenty of assumptions in between.

​

… except your whole argument is predicated on an individual who may be working in the WS-10 factory, who may be an engineer, who may be working on the and J-20 and who may be providing the correct classified data and have not been put in jail. There are a lot of assumptions for your "official" source.


The problem is your arguments are predicated on assumptions so big that a truck can drive through it.

Yep you nailed it here. There are assumptions being made on both sides so let's cool it a bit. He's got some questionable literature. You've got... hmmm nothing at all. I don't have complete trust in either of you but I'd be more partial towards what he's claiming since we can read Chinese and do have access to a greater pool of potentially dodgy and potentially great info that's not available at sinodefence. But I don't understand your motivations for calling into question something we have no control over. He's simply posting those "leaks" for everyone to judge. Outside of that information there is absolutely nothing. So yes there is a place for his posts on this forum and please prove they are inaccurate.

The difference is you guys are completely making guesses even though you may feel they are educated guesses. He's at least claiming to provide some "official" sources. We may doubt them all we want and so we should! But you can see how nothing can come out of these disagreements. Why do you two insist at this stage?! I don't even know what the cause of all this is anymore. Let's just say there are some people claiming to have insider info who have said what Manqiangrexue is posting. Feel free to doubt them but be it janitor or program director, we will never get any better quality info on Chinese military watching. So the next best thing is to take educated guesses which we're all trying to do.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Whether I am on this forum is not for you to decide.

Nor have I decided. I'm telling you how people benefit from this forum but if you wish to sit in a cafeteria and not eat, that's your problem with yourself. If anyone just wanted to read the news, there's no benefit from being here. If you want to benefit, you will listen to the big shrimp. If you wish to be stubbornly in denial, you can stay here and be humiliated for everyone's entertainment.

I noticed it is almost a default position when the unpleasant questions are asked.

You have unpleasant confused with unintelligent.

It may be how the CCP operates but this forum is not an extension of it. Just because you deem your source as authoritative doesn't make it to others - not especially a nameless individual who may work in a WS-10 and who may know the weight.

It's the best source we've got. Of course it's not as good as an official release from Chengdu, but it's certainly better than any course in the West.

That is your definition of "official" and your meaning of deep delve. That is laughable.

Ooh, nono this reading comprehension level of yours will not do... that is undoubtedly the most laughable thing here. What does the first sentence say?
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/j-...rrier-borne-fighter.t8173/page-35#post-567394

You guys are just guessing like everyone else with plenty of assumptions in between.

Uh no, we are reading. What was my guess? I can guess nothing about how much it weighs and I'm not deluded enough to think that I can eyeball an aircraft's weight like certain other members here. I just repeat what the big shrimp say for others to hear and that is currently the best available estimate to us civilians.

… except your whole argument is predicated on an individual who may be working in the WS-10 factory, who may be an engineer, who may be working on the and J-20 and who may be providing the correct classified data and have not been put in jail. There are a lot of assumptions for your "official" source.

Yeah, once again, that's called a big shrimp. If you don't believe these people, who actually have a track record of correctly disclosing things before the government makes the info public, then you will not benefit from being here.

Wait, your whole argument is based on... what? What is your source for 19 tonnes? Let's have a laugh!

The problem is your arguments are predicated on assumptions so big that a truck can drive through it.

And your assumptions are so unfounded that the truck doesn't even have a ground to drive on!

 

[ougoah]

I think Brumby can start with backing up his claims. Where did he find 19T for J-20? Empty or loaded? Source? I mean I've seen the 15-16T claim and not sure what to think of it. Let's see the 19T claim now.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Yep you nailed it here. There are assumptions being made on both sides so let's cool it a bit. He's got some questionable literature. You've got... hmmm nothing at all. I don't have complete trust in either of you but I'd be more partial towards what he's claiming since we can read Chinese and do have access to a greater pool of potentially dodgy and potentially great info that's not available at sinodefence.

The difference is you guys are completely making guesses even though you may feel they are educated guesses. He's at least claiming to provide some "official" sources. We may doubt them all we want and so we should! But you can see how nothing can come out of these disagreements. Why do you two insist at this stage?! I don't even know what the cause of all this is anymore. Let's just say there are some people claiming to have insider info who have said what Manqiangrexue is posting. Feel free to doubt them but be it janitor or program director, we will never get any better quality info on Chinese military watching. So the next best thing is to take educated guesses which we're all trying to do.

I don't know what you're talking about. I clearly said that there are no "official" sources in post 345 and I've also never guessed anything. A known big shrimp who has worked with Taihang gave his word on it and I simply repeated what he said and remarked that that is so far the most trustworthy thing we have to go on. That's all we've got and I'm not adding any guesses or assumptions to it but to dismiss it simply because it's not an official government announcement is discarding the main benefit of being this forum over just reading Yahoo news for developments on the Chinese military.

 

[ougoah]

I don't know what you're talking about. I clearly said that there are no "official" sources in post 345 and I've also never guessed anything. A known big shrimp who has worked with Taihang gave his word on it and I simply repeated what he said and remarked that that is so far the most trustworthy thing we have to go on. That's all we've got and I'm not adding any guesses or assumptions to it.

It's certainly the clearest message we have to go on. I wouldn't say most trustworthy. But that's still worthy of something more than blindly picking numbers like 19T. I can confidently but stupidly claim the J-20 is 9T. There have been groundbreaking new developments on materials and design in recent years. Sorry but J-20 is 9T empty now! Stop manipulating facts with ya werds!

If this whole thing has to do with trying to figure out if J-20 can be carrier-ed for PLAN, just stop. If you don't know the full details, please stop speculating like you're carrier fighter design experts. I don't know who started this but it's arrogant, moronic, and a total waste of your efforts. We don't know what the actual weight is and we don't know how to get a fighter off a carrier. So many armchair engineers around. Maybe a 30T J-20 can get airborne off Type 003.

Oh and I should add that Brumby and Brat don't know enough about 3D printing of any aircraft component to justifiably disprove the "official" claims. Doubt those claims all you want but unless one can disprove them, please spare us the drivel. Manqiangrexue is just the messenger. It's like these guys have an issue with people being exposed to anything positive that China claims to be able of accomplishing and must use verbal diarrhea to annoy everyone while hiding the problems with their points. It's like the annoying Russian claims of F-35 being a total failure, stealth is fake etc etc... everyone can play that game. It's boring. Again let's see the 19T source.

 

[Jura The idiot]

I recall some fight(s) over the J-20 weight LOL there's this ridiculously precise wiki entry of
Empty weight: 19,391 kg