09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread

[Biscuits]

From a doctrinal point of view, SSNs essentially have unlimited range, so are also suited for global sea denial and power projection in high-end conflicts.

Plus if the cost of an SSN is about $1Billion, that is roughly the same as the Type-55.
So the cost doesn't seem prohibitive given how many Type-55 are being produced.

Also think what the existence of a fleet of 30 SSNs would mean.
That would mean 4 SSNs constantly patrolling the Pacific, which would significantly change the military balance of power.

It’s very unlikely a SSN can be attained for 1 billion $. A 041 costs 500-620 million $, the closest western equivalent, the Japanese Soryu, costs 536 million $.

If the 095 is performance oriented, it’s likely to cost more or about as much as the Seawolf class (6 billion $) which is equivalent to ~5 fleet destroyers. Even if it incorporates heavy cost saving measures, it would likely cost more than 3 billion $.

The cost is prohibitive compared to the use they would get.

30 is not that ambitious of a number through, on the high end but hardly a massive fleet like the US one. I could see them going with that, or 10-20 SSNs.

The current military doctrine doesn’t support contesting international seas aggressively, only retain a capability to hit weaker actors as an insurance. Having 60+ SSNs would benefit China if war and making tributary states were an important part of their economy, but right now it isn’t. That’s evidenced in the very low military budget.

One thing that’s certain is that the 093Bs are getting long in the tooth as the early 2000 boats they are... every other country has made new SSN since then.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

A 041 costs 500-620 million $, the closest western equivalent, the Japanese Soryu, costs 536 million $.

Nope, this puts the price of an S26T (an export variant of the 041) at $390 million:

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[Biscuits]

Nope, this puts the price of an S26T (an export variant of the 041) at $390 million:

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That’s a S26T, not a 041. Pakistan is getting the export variant closest to 041 (S20) and they’re paying 5 billion $ for 8 of them = 625 million $ apiece.

 

[plawolf]

That’s a S26T, not a 041. Pakistan is getting the export variant closest to 041 (S20) and they’re paying 5 billion $ for 8 of them = 625 million $ apiece.

Pakistan also wants to assemble some of those subs domestically, so there will be a huge chuck of that overall contract price associated with individual offset that has nothing to do with the costs of building the subs.

You also have munition, logistics and training costs on top, in additional to support and spares.

The PLAN will need all of that as well, but it’s economies of scale and local pricing will mean it won’t pay anything like as much per boat.

 

[gelgoog]

I hope they will use a latest generation nuclear reactor, like the one the Russians use in the Kazan Project 885M, which is a more compact unit with long core lifetime.

 

[KIENCHIN]

Pakistan also wants to assemble some of those subs domestically, so there will be a huge chuck of that overall contract price associated with individual offset that has nothing to do with the costs of building the subs.

You also have munition, logistics and training costs on top, in additional to support and spares.

The PLAN will need all of that as well, but it’s economies of scale and local pricing will mean it won’t pay anything like as much per boat.

And probably add to the customisation of the basic design that Pakistan specified to possibly launch nuclear tip cruise missile, as a counter to India’s SSBN.

 

[Red Moon]

The current military doctrine doesn’t support contesting international seas aggressively, only retain a capability to hit weaker actors as an insurance. Having 60+ SSNs would benefit China if war and making tributary states were an important part of their economy, but right now it isn’t. That’s evidenced in the very low military budget.

Do you have a source for this? Or is it your own conjecture? If it's the second, I missed your arguments for it.

 

[Skywatcher]

Not sure they’ll make that many SSN aside from keeping their technological edge alive.

The PLAN used to be a single force dedicated solely for self defense, where advanced SSKs provide the best undersea component, being stealthier.

In recent days, PLAN has also acquired a global force which could be used to crack down on third world nations. This isn’t something China would willingly do unless there’s absolutely no other option, but given the large amount of new ties with such countries, it’s a necessary insurance. The SSNs go under that category, having good range and payload.

Even if the 095 can be as stealthy as the 041, the cost would likely be prohibitive compared to a 041, which “merely” costs 600+ million $, although that is already insane for a SSK that typically costs around 300-400 million $.

Unless China’s doctrine changes into intervenationism to create puppet regimes, there won’t be a need for force 2 to eclipse force 1. 041s and their future successor will still be the primary submarines.

Even building 20 SSNs would give the PLAN the second largest such fleet in the world.

 

[Biscuits]

Pakistan also wants to assemble some of those subs domestically, so there will be a huge chuck of that overall contract price associated with individual offset that has nothing to do with the costs of building the subs.

You also have munition, logistics and training costs on top, in additional to support and spares.

The PLAN will need all of that as well, but it’s economies of scale and local pricing will mean it won’t pay anything like as much per boat.

Like you say, the PLAN has to take into account the exact same costs...

The govt can use state ownership to offset the cost, but that only means moving the bill to someone else. Economies of scale can help alleviate some of it, but has less impact than what might think. Look at the USN submarine fleet, even after 40+ SSN, the price isn’t that different.

My point is just that having a large SSN fleet could be economically unfeasible, especially if the large SSK fleet is to be maintained at the same time.

 

[Biscuits]

Do you have a source for this? Or is it your own conjecture? If it's the second, I missed your arguments for it.

China’s low military spending and foreign policy behavior