Trade War with China
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Let's see. While US attacked Huawei, ZTE, Jinhua, TCL..etc and when tariff raised to 25%, China should continue to practice Zen to avoid self damaging move and with 6.1% growth (while there are too many news of wide scale unemployment)
auto pilot all the way to number 1 economy eventually on its own according to your theory???? There seems to be people supporting your theory, frankly I don't see it.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Well, 6.1% was a number I just made up for the sake of conversation; it's actually 6.6% in 2018. In 2019, US economic growth is expected to lose roughly a third of its steam (dropping from low 3% to low 2%) while no one credible is forecasting sub-6% growth for China. China is still targeting the 6.5% range and I don't think they've ever missed target before. US trade is a small fraction of the Chinese economy. China has always turned to national development of new cities to bolster its economy and recently, they have enjoyed a strong tailwind from growing domestic consumption trends. So, with the US economy set to lose a third of its steam while China's loses are negligible to 10% at most (if 6.0% is the 2019 data), I would say the current strategy of letting your opponent make mistakes in desperation while simply avoiding reciprocal mistakes is a working strategy. That's what big data says.
If you want to discuss unemployment rate, it's completely pointless to cherry pick individual articles saying certain companies are laying off or hiring or what not. Level-headed people look at the big data, like this graph on Chinese unemployment rate:
Oh come on. I don't think you've read a word I said!
I already said the stats (numbers) are not to be relied on. Yes, you could be right. It's all made up! All numbers and stats are made up. Including those of the west and their mouth pieces the MSM. Just like the ones you quoted above!
I mean the epoch time. CNBC. Really! Give me strength! How do they get hold of their "reliable" stats!
I already said as an economists (that's me by the way, and premier Lee also is one).
We are taught to not relie on one source. And as I mentioned in my earlier post. And I don't mind repeating it.
"There's lies, damn lies and statistics!"
If you understand this phrase then you'd know what I'm talking about!
So, premier Lee is on records as saying he would always use proxy to verify any numbers from the economics department.
He particularly using third parties data as this is less prong to "error or manipulation".
Data from foreign firms/countries particularly welcome. Data like oil imports, iron ore imports. Australia for example would record exports of iron to China.
And if they reported a 6% increase in iron export then the likelyhood is that China would've used the increased quantity which should equates roughly 6% increase in economic activities og the steel industry.
That's just one example. They are countless other ways and commodity I could use.
Also, I mentioned the transformation of China in the last thirty years of a country where everyone owns a bike to a country with the largest car market in the world.
That transformation cannot happened with a meagre growth rate found in the western world. Logic dictate it can only be achived via higher growth rates!
China has roughly the same population as India and 30 to 40 years ago was poorer than India. Look at the difference now. That can't happened with a meagre growth rate
So please re-read what I wrote ealier and use your logic to see why your "free press" could be misleading you.
I begining to think you're right. I don't think he bothered to read what I writen and just make meaningless statement with western MSM as a reference ! Gee
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Now let see who is going to get hurt when this trade war goes full blast
Trade wars could cost 2 million US jobs
White House under pressure to ratchet down trade conflicts
ByASIA TIMES STAFF
As US business leaders grapple with consequences of the Trump administration’s inclination to use tariffs, new research released this month detailed the potential scale of the self-inflicted pain.
Washington DC-based consulting firm Trade Partnership Worldwide put together a report estimating the possible effects should the US go through with threatened escalation in tariffs on Chinese goods and new duties on foreign autos.
The damage inflicted to the US economy due to tariffs already imposed, as well as possible additional tariffs and retaliation, could end up shaving 1% off of GDP growth, while costing more than 2 million jobs, the economists found.
Higher tariffs on Chinese goods alone, which are scheduled to go into effect on March 1 if no deal is reached, would result in the loss of nearly 1 million jobs.
Those direct effects do not take into account losses accrued from the loss of business investment due to increased policy uncertainty.
The job losses, the report claims, would be spread across every US state.
Opposition to the Trump administration’s trade policy has attracted bipartisan support in the US Congress, with some momentum building to pass legislation that would limit presidential authority over trade policy.
But the bills that have been introduced would only address the tariffs that have been imposed on steel and aluminum imports – as well as potential tariffs on foreign-made autos. Both the metals tariffs and the review of possible auto tariffs cite national security as a basis for imposing tariffs.
The new legislation, if passed, would not curb the president’s power to target alleged unfair trade practices through tariffs, as is the case with China.
The White House is not just under pressure from lawmakers. Business leaders have reportedly redoubled their efforts to prevent a further escalation in the trade tensions with China, ahead of the fast-approaching March 1 deadline.
Trump administration officials delayed the implementation of tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on January 1, pending the outcome of trade negotiations with China. But with less than three weeks left to strike a deal, reports indicate that the two sides still do not even have a draft of an agreement.
Trade wars could cost 2 million US jobs
White House under pressure to ratchet down trade conflicts
ByASIA TIMES STAFF
As US business leaders grapple with consequences of the Trump administration’s inclination to use tariffs, new research released this month detailed the potential scale of the self-inflicted pain.
Washington DC-based consulting firm Trade Partnership Worldwide put together a report estimating the possible effects should the US go through with threatened escalation in tariffs on Chinese goods and new duties on foreign autos.
The damage inflicted to the US economy due to tariffs already imposed, as well as possible additional tariffs and retaliation, could end up shaving 1% off of GDP growth, while costing more than 2 million jobs, the economists found.
Higher tariffs on Chinese goods alone, which are scheduled to go into effect on March 1 if no deal is reached, would result in the loss of nearly 1 million jobs.
Those direct effects do not take into account losses accrued from the loss of business investment due to increased policy uncertainty.
The job losses, the report claims, would be spread across every US state.
Opposition to the Trump administration’s trade policy has attracted bipartisan support in the US Congress, with some momentum building to pass legislation that would limit presidential authority over trade policy.
But the bills that have been introduced would only address the tariffs that have been imposed on steel and aluminum imports – as well as potential tariffs on foreign-made autos. Both the metals tariffs and the review of possible auto tariffs cite national security as a basis for imposing tariffs.
The new legislation, if passed, would not curb the president’s power to target alleged unfair trade practices through tariffs, as is the case with China.
The White House is not just under pressure from lawmakers. Business leaders have reportedly redoubled their efforts to prevent a further escalation in the trade tensions with China, ahead of the fast-approaching March 1 deadline.
Trump administration officials delayed the implementation of tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on January 1, pending the outcome of trade negotiations with China. But with less than three weeks left to strike a deal, reports indicate that the two sides still do not even have a draft of an agreement.
2 million at best if global economy doesn't crash and US goes into debt crises.
That reminds me i should go buy some commodities and some guns to protect myself in case they trynna get bold with me.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Since when is the Falun Gong Epoch Times a legitimate source? Frankly I've been looking for any specifics beyond the Western media just saying China's economy is suffering because of Trump. If it were happening, the US media would be relishing showing it but I just see people saying it. I'm sure China is feeling something just not as much as they claimed "China is going to collapse day one of Trump's trade war" back in July. Maybe it's because the Chinese government is preventing the Western media from doing it's job. Then how would they know anything coming out of China? They use numbers coming out from the Chinese government. Yes when things are going good, Beijing must be lying but somehow they won't fudge figures just to curb criticism that China is doing well while they're not? Remember how after the 2008 Western financial crisis, they were waiting for China to take a hit after them. It never happened and the critics were angered how China was doing well believing it came out of the expense of the West. Then the numbers miraculously started falling and the critics cheered that China is going to wilt into nothing. It didn't happen then but somehow because it's Trump it's going to happen now?
The new excuse for what the pro-Trump side said was going happen but didn't was that people were stockpiling orders before Trump's tariffs were to take affect in March as to why China's exports to the US rose not decreased like they wanted to happen. I haven't heard any big outsourcers leaving China. When the media asks American CEO's whose companies outsource to China if they're taking any precautions, they all say they're taking a wait and see approach if the US and China can strike a deal before the March deadline. Meaning they haven't done anything. They have to setup shop somewhere else without any disruptions if we were to believe what Trump says is going to happen if the Chinese don't deal. So US companies are over-ordering hence why Chinese exports have only grown yet Chinese are losing jobs left and right since Trump started his trade war?
I saw some article recently that called for China to end state-owned enterprises. They claimed that if China got rid of them, it would add two percentage points to China's GDP. So from over six percent now to over eight percent. Last time China was at over seven percent, they said China was overheating. You know what overheating is? China producing more goods that it can sell. The same thing US corporations are doing now when they claim the increase not decrease in exports from China to the US during Trump's trade war is due to just stockpiling orders by US corporations. When people see bad economic times ahead, normally a company reduces orders not increase them. Remember how Apple had to cut production on it's newest iPhones for the last two years for lower than estimated sales and the stock market didn't like it. That's worse than when they said China was overheating. The Chinese got paid already for their end in making US companies' product for them even if US corporations can't sell them. The loss is worse.
The new excuse for what the pro-Trump side said was going happen but didn't was that people were stockpiling orders before Trump's tariffs were to take affect in March as to why China's exports to the US rose not decreased like they wanted to happen. I haven't heard any big outsourcers leaving China. When the media asks American CEO's whose companies outsource to China if they're taking any precautions, they all say they're taking a wait and see approach if the US and China can strike a deal before the March deadline. Meaning they haven't done anything. They have to setup shop somewhere else without any disruptions if we were to believe what Trump says is going to happen if the Chinese don't deal. So US companies are over-ordering hence why Chinese exports have only grown yet Chinese are losing jobs left and right since Trump started his trade war?
I saw some article recently that called for China to end state-owned enterprises. They claimed that if China got rid of them, it would add two percentage points to China's GDP. So from over six percent now to over eight percent. Last time China was at over seven percent, they said China was overheating. You know what overheating is? China producing more goods that it can sell. The same thing US corporations are doing now when they claim the increase not decrease in exports from China to the US during Trump's trade war is due to just stockpiling orders by US corporations. When people see bad economic times ahead, normally a company reduces orders not increase them. Remember how Apple had to cut production on it's newest iPhones for the last two years for lower than estimated sales and the stock market didn't like it. That's worse than when they said China was overheating. The Chinese got paid already for their end in making US companies' product for them even if US corporations can't sell them. The loss is worse.
Jura The idiot
General
good post, just wanted to comment on your "US trade is a small fraction of the Chinese economy."Well, 6.1% was a number I just made up for the sake of conversation; it's actually 6.6% in 2018. In 2019, US economic growth is expected to lose roughly a third of its steam (dropping from low 3% to low 2%) while no one credible is forecasting sub-6% growth for China. China is still targeting the 6.5% range and I don't think they've ever missed target before. US trade is a small fraction of the Chinese economy. China has always turned to national development of new cities to bolster its economy and recently, they have enjoyed a strong tailwind from growing domestic consumption trends. So, with the US economy set to lose a third of its steam while China's loses are negligible to 10% at most (if 6.0% is the 2019 data), I would say the current strategy of letting your opponent make mistakes in desperation while simply avoiding reciprocal mistakes is a working strategy. That's what big data says.
If you want to discuss unemployment rate, it's completely pointless to cherry pick individual articles saying certain companies are laying off or hiring or what not. Level-headed people look at the big data, like this graph on Chinese unemployment rate:
:
yes and no,
'yes' if you compare it (it's $505b in exports in 2017 according to ) to the GDP (it's $12362b in 2017 according to ),
but 'no' if you compare it to the trade surplus (in 2018 $352b overall, $323b with the US: )
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