So, we had J-10 entering service come 2005 or so, after serial production started around 2002/2003, and after first flight of the prototype was in 1998.
Before that, we had J-7A flying in 1976. And the licenced MiG-21 labeled as J-7, which flew in 1966
So... J-7 in 1966
J-7A in 1976
J-7E in 1990 (The big redesign)
J-10A in 1998
J-10B in 2008
So... when are we due for another single engine fighter?
There were 32 years between very first J-7 and J-10. If that's something to go by, should we see first flight of prototype of the plane to succeed J-10 around 2040?
Are we in for another major variant of J-10 in between, to come very shortly? Around 2020, give or take.
And if not, does that mean we're a bit more likely to see the whole new plane a bit earlier than 2040?
J-7s allegedly couldn't fly more than 2-4 thousand hours. But they were purchased by PLAAF for almost 4 decades. One should expect more modern planes are designed to fly for longer. At least 4-8 thousand hours. Would that influence the timetable of successor's development? And if so, by how much?
J10, especially of A variety, will be becoming increasingly old by 2035. First examples having flown approximately 7000 hours. How likely is it they will be replaced by some newer J10 variants? Or by some other planes altogether? Large twin engined planes? Or perhaps something in the class of FC-31?
If they are to be replaced by a single engine plane, does it seem likely we'd have to see the first flight of such prototype by 2035? Or perhaps even a few years earlier? Entry into service in 2038 for example, means basically 8000 hours flown by the first J10s.
What sort of design might we expect from a future single engine fighter? Something advanced, sure, but what compromises might be had, given in mind it's likely gonna be a somewhat cheaper addition to the larger, more expensive fighters?
Before that, we had J-7A flying in 1976. And the licenced MiG-21 labeled as J-7, which flew in 1966
So... J-7 in 1966
J-7A in 1976
J-7E in 1990 (The big redesign)
J-10A in 1998
J-10B in 2008
So... when are we due for another single engine fighter?
There were 32 years between very first J-7 and J-10. If that's something to go by, should we see first flight of prototype of the plane to succeed J-10 around 2040?
Are we in for another major variant of J-10 in between, to come very shortly? Around 2020, give or take.
And if not, does that mean we're a bit more likely to see the whole new plane a bit earlier than 2040?
J-7s allegedly couldn't fly more than 2-4 thousand hours. But they were purchased by PLAAF for almost 4 decades. One should expect more modern planes are designed to fly for longer. At least 4-8 thousand hours. Would that influence the timetable of successor's development? And if so, by how much?
J10, especially of A variety, will be becoming increasingly old by 2035. First examples having flown approximately 7000 hours. How likely is it they will be replaced by some newer J10 variants? Or by some other planes altogether? Large twin engined planes? Or perhaps something in the class of FC-31?
If they are to be replaced by a single engine plane, does it seem likely we'd have to see the first flight of such prototype by 2035? Or perhaps even a few years earlier? Entry into service in 2038 for example, means basically 8000 hours flown by the first J10s.
What sort of design might we expect from a future single engine fighter? Something advanced, sure, but what compromises might be had, given in mind it's likely gonna be a somewhat cheaper addition to the larger, more expensive fighters?