Chinese Economics Thread

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
china-households-debt-to-gdp.png


3.4% increase of dollhouse debt compared to GDP for a slowly decreasing car output?

29.5 million vehicle sold it is two third of the SK car sales.

So, by the magic of central planning they found the long term balance point of market OR a lot of artificial demand has been generated, and as soon as the debt binge end the market halved.

Wait a sec, I saw somewhere the debt fuelled binge : )
hungary-car-registrations.png

There was a 15 years long growth prior of 2009.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Chinese car market is on the pause now because more and more people are spending their money for service like good school for the kid, travel, healthcare So it is just temporary pause after long uninterrupted growth. Actually it does not decline more like plateau abit
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But once the auto industry come up with better model or break thru in intelligent car It will go up again

As well the improvement in rail transport make it more convenience to take public transport instead of driving it yourself

China's National Day holiday: less expenses, more culture
It is good to know that the chinese are more and more interested in their cultural heritage
5198befedfed4d34b2b122f1a6eae629.jpg


Some 726 million people were on the move in China during the week-long National Day holiday from October 1 to 7, up 9.43 percent year on year.

Official data show holidaymakers this year saved more money while gaining a wealth of cultural knowledge.

Reduction in admission fees to 981 state-owned scenic spots nationwide greatly benefited tourists, with ticket prices for 491 attractions cut by over 20 percent and 74 other spots completely free of charge.

Lower prices brought more traffic to the Yellow Crane Tower, Wudang Mountain and Shennongjia National Nature Reserve in central China's Hubei Province over the holiday, while the Three Gorges Dam was among the popular destinations with free entrance.

More low-cost food combo packages and convenient travel services also contributed to the decreased expenses during the week.

Mount Laojun in Luoyang, central China's Henan Province, offered one-yuan meals featuring noodles, sausages and steamed buns to travelers, People's Daily newspaper reported on Thursday.

In Yangzhou, eastern province of Jiangsu, 54 booths were set up to provide free travel information and services including mobile phone charging. In addition, four new transfer points opened during the break for tourists to park their cars and transfer to buses.

Cultural destinations were favored by travelers during the holiday, with over 90 percent participating in culture-related activities.

More than 40 percent of tourists visited venues like museums, art galleries, libraries and sci-tech exhibitions, while 37.8 percent spent two to five days on cultural experiences during the Golden Week.

According to statistics from major domestic online travel agencies, reservations at cultural tourist sites saw a growth of over 36 percent during the seven-day break compared to last year. Beijing, Ningbo, Wuxi, Xi'an, Hangzhou and Nanjing were the most popular destinations for the booming cultural tourism in China.

(Cover image: Tourists flock to the Yellow Crane Tower in Wuhan, Hubei Province on October 2, 2018. /VCG Photo)
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
That's your favorite chart of incomplete information! It makes 37% look like a tenth of 49% and it doesn't show the levels of debt in developed Western countries or any other successful countries in general. All I hear is people trying to dooms-day analyze Chinese debt but I don't see anybody pointing to a successful, powerful country with low debt... In the end, if they were to pick a role-model, they would have to pick China because it does have very low debt compared to other relevant nations.

3.4% increase of dollhouse debt compared to GDP for a slowly decreasing car output?
Small fluctuation up and small fluctuate down? Yeah! What's your question?

29.5 million vehicle sold it is two third of the SK car sales.
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SK sold 110K vehicles in September, down 18% from last year, so I don't know what you're talking about (and really neither do you).

So, by the magic of central planning they found the long term balance point of market OR a lot of artificial demand has been generated, and as soon as the debt binge end the market halved.

Wait a sec, I saw somewhere the debt fuelled binge : )
hungary-car-registrations.png

There was a 15 years long growth prior of 2009.
Hungary is Hungary and China is China. The two have so little in common (other than the micro-fluctuations that you wish to interpret as a trend) that you're better off comparing a bird and a cow because they both eat and shit.
 
now I read
Chinese economy to remain stable and positive: senior official
Xinhua| 2018-10-09 18:46:53
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Despite new challenges and changes in the external environment, the Chinese economy is on a solid footing to maintain a stable and positive outlook, said Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission and head of the National Bureau of Statistics.

Responding to concerns about the downward pressure on the Chinese economy, Ning said the focus should be on the overall trend instead of specific indicators, and current fluctuations in the economic index were within a reasonable range.

The Chinese economy has maintained stable and sound growth so far this year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual goal of economic and social development, Ning said.

The first half of this year saw a 6.8 percent growth of China's GDP, which had stayed within the range of 6.7 percent to 6.9 percent for 12 consecutive quarters. China had also maintained stability in the employment, price and balance of international payments to facilitate stable and positive economic growth.

Ning also noted China's economic structure had been improved, with consumption becoming a more fundamental driver of economic growth. While the profits and development quality of the Chinese economy improved, the per capita disposable income of Chinese people kept growing.

He emphasized that investment, a key factor in economic development, played a crucial role in maintaining stable and sound growth and coping with external risks.

China's investment structure continued to improve and private investment maintained rapid growth. Meanwhile, the growth of investment in the manufacturing sector kept accelerating.

China would be devoted to strengthening environmental protection, poverty alleviation and the development of rural areas and agriculture. China would also eliminate all types of unnecessary investment barriers and promote private investment, Ning said.

Ning highlighted the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention, adding that the economy should grow within a reasonable range to avoid risks.

China was unavoidably affected by the trade frictions due to the growing interdependence between the Chinese economy and global economy in the process of China's reform and opening-up, but the stable and positive trend of China's economy would not stop, Ning said.

Despite the complicated domestic and external environment, the rise of trade protectionism and unilateralism and the fluctuations in the global financial market, China's economy was resilient and flexible enough to cope with any risks and China would achieve the annual goal of economic and social development.

China should continue to advance the supply-side structural reform, pursue high-quality development and facilitate rational growth to maintain the stability of the Chinese economy, he added.

Apart from creating more jobs and expanding domestic demand, China should strive for greater levels of reform and opening-up and facilitate international cooperation in trade and investment, Ning added.

Speaking of the effects of the trade frictions with the United States, Ning said whether direct or indirect, short-term or long-term, they were all controllable.

With the transformation and upgrading of the Chinese economy, domestic demand has played an increasingly important role in economic growth. China has been capable of reducing the effects of trade frictions to a controllable range by maximizing the momentum of domestic consumption and investment.

Ning added that the effects of trade frictions on the employment, price, and balance of international payments could also be overcome with effective policies and measures.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
That's your favorite chart of incomplete information! It makes 37% look like a tenth of 49% and it doesn't show the levels of debt in developed Western countries or any other successful countries in general. All I hear is people trying to dooms-day analyze Chinese debt but I don't see anybody pointing to a successful, powerful country with low debt... In the end, if they were to pick a role-model, they would have to pick China because it does have very low debt compared to other relevant nations.
6.8% of GDP growth ,3.7% came from consumer debt.
Interesting.
Small fluctuation up and small fluctuate down? Yeah! What's your question?
Prior of august 2017 it was monotone growing.
Now it is flat for 14 month.

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SK sold 110K vehicles in September, down 18% from last year, so I don't know what you're talking about (and really neither do you).

I mean calculated for per million person the Chinese vehicle sales is two third of the SK one.
Hungary is Hungary and China is China. The two have so little in common (other than the micro-fluctuations that you wish to interpret as a trend) that you're better off comparing a bird and a cow because they both eat and shit.
I suggest this diagram:
hungary-households-debt-to-gdp.png

Between, 1999 and 2009 the consumer debt increased the GDP by 36% (around 3% each year).
Since 2011 it DECREASED the GDP by 20%, again,around 3% per year.
See Chinese full curve:
china-households-debt-to-gdp.png

The solution of the 2009 recession was to load up the last, debt free section of the economy : the households.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
6.8% of GDP growth ,3.7% came from consumer debt.
Interesting.
They are just 2 numbers. I don't see why it is interesting. Calling everything interesting doesn't make you look smarter or more insightful. "I made $500 today and spent $200 taking my girlfriend to dinner. Interesting." See? I can do it too, but it's not interesting, is it?

Prior of august 2017 it was monotone growing.
Now it is flat for 14 month.
That is not a question. I asked what your question is and you responded with a pointless statement. Nice job LOL

I mean calculated for per million person the Chinese vehicle sales is two third of the SK one.
First of all, your words have to reflect what you mean. Secondly, what is the point of comparing per capita car sales between China and SK? To show that China is still developing and has more room to grow or to show that China's recent micro-fluctuations down in car sales are nothing compared to a mature car market like SK which dropped by 18%? You need to have a point when you try to use data.

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinese-economics-thread.t3715/page-936#post-526460
Here, have a look at that. Cars of the future, sales up 64% in China.

I suggest this diagram:
hungary-households-debt-to-gdp.png

Between, 1999 and 2009 the consumer debt increased the GDP by 36% (around 3% each year).
Since 2011 it DECREASED the GDP by 20%, again,around 3% per year.
I suggest you post that to the Hungarian economics thread because it is entirely irrelevant here to China's economy.

See Chinese full curve:
china-households-debt-to-gdp.png

The solution of the 2009 recession was to load up the last, debt free section of the economy : the households.
That is just your favorite incomplete graph again, drawn in a line rather than a bar graph. To this, I can only refer you to what I already said last time but what you ignored because you have no answer:

"It doesn't show the levels of debt in developed Western countries or any other successful countries in general. All I hear is people trying to dooms-day analyze Chinese debt but I don't see anybody pointing to a successful, powerful country with low debt... In the end, if they were to pick a role-model, they would have to pick China because it does have very low debt compared to other relevant nations."

That will be the repeated answer for each time you decide to show that same chart again :)

The graph of Estonia is very nice.
estonia-gdp-growth-annual.png

estonia-households-debt-to-income.png

Mind the time scale.
Good for Estonia; I didn't even bother to look because it is irrelevant to China. If it's very nice as you say, then post it to the Estonian economy thread. Nobody cares about it here.
 
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