Chinese Economics Thread

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
I suggest to everyone to read the Pettis stuff .
carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets?lang=en
IT is quite good, and gives a comprehensive analysis of the possible future paths of the chinese economy development.

The guy using simple ballance of payment methodology to analyse the situation, and describe basic scenarios for changes.

He has been doing it for ten years.
I honestly suggest you get out of the pit-hole of numbers and formulas and look at the big picture. Do not "talk about war on papers", "纸上谈兵".

I am being serious and honest, not sacarstic.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
What you said is a general rule/principle that works everywhere. Stating that principle does not put China in any disadvantage position. All your argument is based on the presumption that US is the consumer to consume Chinese production (investment). That is a presumption without base.
Who is to say that Chinese people do not want expensive vacation, cars, phones, TVs, movies etc. just like Europeans and Americans? Chinese population can create bigger demand of consumption than all westerners combined. That is the drive.

The Chinese companies will adapt themselves accordingly. Sure, the one doesn't adapt will die, so will the one who adapts live. Either way, these are Chinese companies.

Nobody can say never ever for anything. So don't ask this question around, it is pointless.


The average Chinese wants to consume. The chinese goverment official / SOE manager/company owner want stable and growing wealth.This two are mutually exclusive. Who will win?
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
I stopped reading right there.
Why does US not want to sell it if a positive impact on the U.S.

  • Mines in Asian, African, South American countries.
  • Oil in ME, Africa and South America
  • New factories in OBOR countries that will return profit.
  • The raising demand of raising living standards in the OBOR countries.
The oil , minerals and so on irrelevants. The economy can generate subtitution, you can make synthetic fuel from coal, or from uran ,or whatever.

There is no country anywhere on the word that willing to run similar trade deficit like the US.
And without that the profit, and the exchange rate staibility is small or 0 .
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
I honestly suggest you get out of the pit-hole of numbers and formulas and look at the big picture. Do not "talk about war on papers", "纸上谈兵".

I am being serious and honest, not sacarstic.
These are the numbers .
Trade surpluss / deficit, ratio of consumption / investment / trade surpluss, loand to GDP per state sector ,ballance of payment between countries.

Everything else is just smoke and mirror.

I am the only one who include numbers.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
This journalist finally admits the truth that China's tech industries, investors, and the plethora of tech expertise and students are a force to be reckon with, but in the end it gives same old cliche about how "freedom" is still "better" and that it is "safer"(not including mass shootings?) here in the US?:rolleyes:o_O

The Chinese think Palo Alto is dumpy
Danny Crichton,TechCrunch 2 hours 41 minutes ago
149c1f9c37e069d61e45d10ebc600f93

The great Raw Water Story of 2017 is finally over.
Good news! The great
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is finally over. Google tells me
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, but thankfully, humans seem to have filtered out any more stories or follow ups. Silicon Valley can rest easy.

But wait! There is another crisis brewing, and it isn’t the animal fecal matter in your algae water.

Over the past few days, we’ve seen the creation of a brand new genre of tech press article which might be called “the Chinese are really bored with Silicon Valley.”

(My sources tell me the Albanians are also bored with the Valley, but no one apparently cares what they think these days. Albania is in Africa, right?).

Apparently, and this is true because
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, Palo Alto looks kind of dumpy.

Color me as shocked as the green of this fungal H20. Dumpy? Have they seen the Persian rug store on University?

As the Journal describes a group of Chinese founders visiting the Valley, “To many in the group, northern California’s low-rise buildings looked shabbier than the glitzy skyscrapers in Beijing and Shenzhen.” Finally, someone noticed.

But it wasn’t just the WSJ that got in on the action.
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, which emphasized the growing financial opportunities and career options on the Chinese mainland compared to the U.S. From the article: “Yet the search for returnees has spurred a thriving cottage industry. In WeChat and Facebook cliques, headhunters and engineers from the diaspora exchange banter and animated gifs.”

Banter and animated gifs. My god the Valley is screwed.

This whole trend piece genre is kind of weird, particularly in the context of the other Silicon Valley freakout this week, which was Mike Moritz’ editorial in the Financial Times
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. Plus, Moritz and his “western eye” points out, the Chinese reuse teabags!

So basically, “The Chinese” living in Silicon Valley are sending animated gifs, bantering, and complaining about shabby Palo Alto buildings all the while dreaming of moving to Asia to reuse teabags and not see their children.

And people say journalism is dead.

Now, I am being flippant (if you hadn’t noticed, you might want to delete your angry tweet from a couple of paragraphs ago). There really is an important trend that people should be paying attention to when it comes to global worker mobility and particularly the mobility of Chinese tech workers.

But it is deeply amusing to me to see the fear of a brain drain in a region that has probably drained more brains from the rest of the world than any other place.

China has much to be proud of in its tech sector. The so-called BAT companies — Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent — are together worth more than a trillion dollars today. Transportation services startup
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, and news content platform
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.
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, second only to the United States.

The broader ecosystem is even more compelling.
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and are starting to rival Silicon Valley levels. The number of startups is also huge, and China is probably home to more tech startups than all ecosystems but the Valley (and maybe the Valley, too, depending on how you count).

Plus, the government is putting its money where its mouth is. Back in 2008, the Chinese government launched the
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to recruit 1,000 overseas researchers to the mainland. Those recruitment programs have expanded and continue unabated. Furthermore, the government has placed
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, and will put billions of dollars to work in related industries.

In short, China together has some of the most interesting, fastest-growing technology companies in the world right now, and is also giving them the royal treatment. It is hardly surprising then that given the tremendous growth in its domestic startup ecosystem, overseas Chinese engineers would start to look back toward China for their next career steps.

For all of the concerns of the press that there is a new brain drain in Silicon Valley, I think we can rest easy. Despite Palo Alto’s shabby look, lack of mobile payments, and lack of face-recognition software, America still has many, many desirable qualities. It’s safe and clean. Corruption is reasonably rare. Universities are still the best in the world. The bureaucracy around running a business is reasonably simple and well-trodden. Freedom of speech and expression is also strong.

It’s important that America doesn’t rest on its laurels, but neither should we go into full crisis mode to change a system that has produced some of the most impactful companies in the world. Maybe a few more Chinese are leaving Silicon Valley these days. Maybe. That sounds like both a warning, and an opportunity to build and heal the tech divide between two great powers. Maybe both sides can drink some raw water from the Yangtze River.

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taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
The oil , minerals and so on irrelevants. The economy can generate subtitution, you can make synthetic fuel from coal, or from uran ,or whatever.

There is no country anywhere on the word that willing to run similar trade deficit like the US.
And without that the profit, and the exchange rate staibility is small or 0 .
Firstly, I and many here are not trying to convince you that "US to get rid of her trade feficit". Not at all. What ever U.S. does with it is her own business, for her own good or bad. What we are arguing with you is that we don't believe that other countries like China will have to live on it for ever, nor benifit from it for ever. China will find her own way of continue with or without all the "benifit" and "opertunity" that you are suggesting.

Secondly, the world has lasted and prospered to the time when U.S. began to run trade deficit (1970s???) for many thousand of years. Apperantly the world can continue to prosper without that "precious" deficit of anyone, so is the exchange rate stability can be maintained without dollar. Gold or Silver, remember?, can just do the job as they have done for many thousand of years.

Bottom line is, the earth will keep rotating without anybody, eveny any human as it has been. Nobody is indispensible.


Although I respect you to uphold your faith to what you say, but it is clear now that there is nothing more between us to debate as everything has been circled. I will leave it to you to find out if there is anyone else who may be able to agree with.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I suggest to everyone to read the Pettis stuff .
carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets?lang=en
IT is quite good, and gives a comprehensive analysis of the possible future paths of the chinese economy development.

The guy using simple ballance of payment methodology to analyse the situation, and describe basic scenarios for changes.

He has been doing it for ten years.

Petis he was bearish on China for ages Yet he kept investing in China buying recording company investing in restaurant It does not cost him anything to be wrong just like Gordon Change Because he sing to the choir so to speak He has been worn for many years go search all his rticle form 1990
AllSya the same thing He is just like Gordon Chang
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
If the road cost more to inner mongolia than the housing in a city for all residents then why make road?
Why? Because inner Mongolia being barren wasteland isn't good for anything, is it? So it needs to be developed, then it can become another metropolis with high GDP. I don't often have to explain simple things like this to people. Reread the portion of my comment that you CUT OFF because more answers to your "why?" are already there.

I've always admitted that I'm no economics guru so oftentimes, when people say things that are very technical, I cannot judge the truth. But when you say things like, "There's no need to develop or build new cities; just pile all of your people into your existing city! That way you can avoid having to build roads!" it makes me strongly suspect that everything you say is wrong even when I cannot judge them independently. This is definitely your second "Supercomputers are just normal computers hooked up to each other" moment. Before that, I thought you might have an understanding on technology; after that, I know you don't. Now, I know you don't understand economics either.
The SOEs exost because they have political connections, and can get cheap loans.
With cheap loan a monkey can run a business.
If you google "Chinese SOE loan profitability" there are many data about the topics.

But one number talk nice: the SOEs has two third of the non-financial loansin China, and they represent 115% of the GDP in loan to gdp ratio.
"Talk nice?" LOL Did it compliment you? LOL

Chinese SOEs use loans and take up money. So what? They work on gargantuan tasks that need investment to achieve. When you make J-20, Y-20, Type 055, Taihulight, Quantum technology, you think that comes cheap? You think some Joe with a little shop trying to earn profit for his family is gonna make those for the country? We've told you this before: not everything is about profit. This is national capability and it costs money. When everything you do is about efficiency and profit, you are a slave to money. When you know when to earn money and when to spend the money for your benefit, you become money's master. You are clearly stuck in a slave mentality thinking that whatever doesn't bring in immediate profits (road-building, SOEs taking on massive projects) is a mistake. The chains and shackles that you wear are for you to keep, they do not fit the Chinese.

And also, I asked you to provide numbers for how much Chinese SOEs need to spend to get something done and compare those to numbers on what would be considered efficient, and you couldn't get any, right? OK, I thought so.
 
Last edited:
now I read
Economic Watch: Softer but better growth expected for Chinese economy in 2018
Xinhua| 2018-01-20 22:37:15
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China's economic performance beat market expectations in 2017, but will the bullish momentum continue into the new year?

A moderation in GDP growth is the popular view among global investors given a high comparison base, while a more balanced and sustainable economy is expected to take shape faster.

China's economy totaled 82.7 trillion yuan (about 13 trillion U.S. dollars) in volume in 2017, expanding 6.9 percent as it picked up pace for the first time in seven years.

Stronger-than-expected growth data may indicate a further tightening of macro-prudential policy, but that does not change
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ese securities trader Nomura's economic view for China this year. It has raised its 2018 GDP growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 6.5 percent, with a gradual growth slowdown in coming quarters.

Global investment banks JP Morgan and UBS expect China's economy to expand about 6.7 percent and 6.4 percent this year respectively.

The property sector remains one of the major uncertainties facing China's economic growth in 2018.

No collapse or major loosening of property market management is in sight this year, but government policies including supporting rental housing and a faster-than-expected legislative progress for property tax might complicate market sentiment, according to Zhu Haibin, JP Morgan chief China economist.

UBS China economist Wang Tao estimated that property sales might lose momentum in 2018, while property investment and construction growth stay robust or soften only modestly until late this year.

Meanwhile, as the government's ongoing environmental protection and clean-up efforts kick into full swing through the peak heating season, industrial production and related investment activities should soften more visibly this quarter, Wang pointed out.

Externally, the normalization of monetary policies in developed economies might weigh upon the exchange rate and capital flow balance while more protectionist practices from the
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might dampen China's exports.

China's cross-border capital flows hit a turning point in 2017 as foreign currency reserve levels stabilized after two years of decline.

Zhu estimated that the basic equilibrium of capital flow will continue in 2018 with a stronger yuan, steady economy and improved market sentiment due to financial risk control efforts and other reforms.

Better manufacturing investment and robust external demand due to the recovering global economy may help to partly offset some upstream sector weakness, according to UBS.

Iris Pang, economist at ING, believes 2018 will be another good year for China, supported by consumption of goods and services and infrastructure investments.

ING expects manufacturing of high-tech products and parts to grow by more than 50 percent this year, cushioning the loss of production from overcapacity cuts in non-ferrous metals, shipbuilding and building materials.

Data from December and Q4 point to resilient growth momentum, which Nomura believes was driven by a robust expansion of the services sector, as it continued to benefit from China's economic rebalancing toward consumption and the Internet-led "new economy."

New growth drivers including consumption and the service sector contributed over 30 percent and 70 percent to the country's economic expansion and new jobs respectively, underscoring a steady shift in China's growth model, official data showed.

Growing new engines such as consumption will continue to lend strong steam to economic expansion in 2018 while the role of investment might further fall, Zhu noted.
 
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