052C/052D Class Destroyers

[PiSigma]

Have a think about a notional conflict over Taiwan. How many ships and aircraft would China need to break through the first island chain (potentially Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines) and obtain maritime superiority within the second island chain?

Then there is also securing chokepoints like the Malacca Strait (and beyond) to ensure commercial shipping can continue to flow freely.

If you run your own models of what China could reasonably be spending in 10 years, you can see that 90 AEGIS destroyers is not top heavy because there are so many more frigates (60+), corvettes (60+) and large coast guard ships (120+) as well.

And the *rule* as I understand it is that maintenance, overhauls and repairs is like buying a ship 3x over.

In case of a Taiwan conflict large destroyers are generally not very useful other than to prevent other countries like Japan into joining the party.

90+ destroyers, with 60 frigates and 60 corvettes is by definition top heavy. Think of it like a pyramid with the smallest ships on bottom, ur top of destroyers is supported by frigates at 2/3 of size. 90+ destroyers means u would have 100+ frigates and 100+ corvettes to have a balanced navy.

I think 50 destroyers (between 52s and 55s) are more than enough. Because like I said, Indian ocean and western pacific only. Which is area wise about the same as a full pacific ocean, so half of USN strength, it would be more than enough.

Just because China have the capability to build, doesn't mean they will. Historically they have been piloting new designs then once happy with it surge production. I think we will see a slow down eventually before new radical designs are made (not small changes like 56 to 56A) and then a surge again.

 

[kurutoga]

I think 50 destroyers (between 52s and 55s) are more than enough. Because like I said, Indian ocean and western pacific only. Which is area wise about the same as a full pacific ocean, so half of USN strength, it would be more than enough.

I would give it a wild guess the current cycle with 2 carriers will total about 10 055, 20 052D, 40 054A. And the next cycle with full IEP and possibly new weapons will be another 2 new carriers and corresponding 055B, 052E and 054B.

 

[AndrewS]

In case of a Taiwan conflict large destroyers are generally not very useful other than to prevent other countries like Japan into joining the party.

90+ destroyers, with 60 frigates and 60 corvettes is by definition top heavy. Think of it like a pyramid with the smallest ships on bottom, ur top of destroyers is supported by frigates at 2/3 of size. 90+ destroyers means u would have 100+ frigates and 100+ corvettes to have a balanced navy.

I think 50 destroyers (between 52s and 55s) are more than enough. Because like I said, Indian ocean and western pacific only. Which is area wise about the same as a full pacific ocean, so half of USN strength, it would be more than enough.

Just because China have the capability to build, doesn't mean they will. Historically they have been piloting new designs then once happy with it surge production. I think we will see a slow down eventually before new radical designs are made (not small changes like 56 to 56A) and then a surge again.

In a Taiwan conflict, are 50 Type 52 and Type 55 enough to:

a. Dissuade a combined US and JP from intervening?
b. Dissuade Taiwan from declaring formal independence?

The end answer is a no.

But would 90 destroyers (supported by air assets from mainland China) be enough to seal off the first island chain and make Taiwanese independence impossible?

The answer is very likely a yes

But the key thing is that this occurs at a modest level of military spending, which should just be a matter of time and easily affordable if China has an economy which is 3x the US in 2040.

 

[Jura The idiot]

while I had been cutting vegetables now, I was thinking about recent posts here which basically are
AndrewS
prognostication and disproving
AndrewS
prognostication; to me, the point isn't what if
AndrewS
had been wrong, but what if
AndrewS
had been right!?

the context is what I noticed was going in Western Navies lately, as in

1. the RN still not fixing its core AA ships:
   Yesterday at 10:29 PM
   

   I recalled Mar 20, 2017
   
   after I had read now
   How much will it cost to fix the Type 45 Destroyer fleet? October 13, 2017

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2. the USN to start retiring its core AA ships:
   Monday at 4:02 PM
   

   not sure what to say
   The U.S. Navy will start losing its largest surface combatants in 2020
   13 hours ago

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3. the French, Italians 'mulling' to 'upgrade' its core AA ships (the four Horizons)
   Sep 18, 2017
   

   Thursday at 11:24 AM
   
   now found what a blogger had to say
   16 septembre 2017
   FREMM DAMB ?

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   I'll be posting the google translation ...

4. EDIT the German part

I mean twenty years from now, the West may end up with just some remains of what it has now!!

so? so it's hard to fathom what would happen if China built what's described Jul 29, 2017

What is the endgame?

At the moment, I think they're working to an end-strength of roughly matching the USN. So after another 20 years, it will end up something like this

6+ Aircraft Carriers
90+ Large DDG Type-55/52 (3 per year)
60+ FFG Type-54 (2 per year)
60+ OPV (one off)

But I imagine that they revise the desired force structure every 5 years, according to how much the economy has grown (as military spending tracks at approximately 2% of GDP).

So a 7% growth rate over the next 5 years results in an overall increase of 40%, in which case they would revise the desired end-strength upwards.

 

[Lethe]

the USN to start retiring its core AA ships:

1. Monday at 4:02 PM

The retiring Ticos (and Burke Is) will be replaced by Burke IIIs. The loss of VLS cells is greatly outweighed by the gains in radar capability and all the other improvements that assuredly come with being built some 35+ years later..

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

The retiring Ticos (and Burke Is) will be replaced by Burke IIIs. The loss of VLS cells is greatly outweighed by the gains in radar capability and all the other improvements that assuredly come with being built some 35+ years later..

What amount of VLS the Burke Flight 3 will provide ?

 

[Lethe]

96, same as Burke IIA, 26 cells fewer than Tico.

 

[Jura The idiot]

The retiring Ticos (and Burke Is) will be replaced by Burke IIIs. The loss of VLS cells is greatly outweighed by the gains in radar capability and all the other improvements that assuredly come with being built some 35+ years later..

I recalled also Thursday at 6:52 PM

That Ticos and then Burke Is will begin to retire in the next few years is why Andrew is projecting future USN large combatant numbers will remain at ~90 despite the fact that Burke construction is continuing.

...

so I looked up the number of Flight-One ABs: 21
there're 22 Ticos; "subtracting 43"

now adding ...: I've heard of the Zumwalt which limped to San Diego, and two of her class under construction up in Maine; how many Flight-Three ABs will be built?

 

[Lethe]

Only 11 Ticos are retiring in 2020s, the other 11 are being upgraded to serve into 2030s (lol).

At USN's new standard retirement age of 35 years (invented under the Trump administration, up from 33 years), only 7 Burkes will retire in the 2020s too.

Retirements will be matched by induction of new destroyers, there will no shrinkage in fleet size or capability.

 

[kurutoga]

Question when is Type 052E due to come out ? After 18 x Type 052D?

If so this puts us into the post 2020 time frame

By which time most likely Type 055A/B will be in development

So really we can be looking at Type 052E and Type 055A

First 054B needs to prove the IEP is feasible before next 052/055 will be made. The success of 054B is critical for the next stage.