Chinese Aviation Industry

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Yes, that is the other possibility: a leap into new forms of technology and transport. And considering the possible spectrum of such technologies, a new supersonic transport is actually one of the more conservative paths available when compared to e.g. hypersonic spaceplanes.

I don't care what it will be, as long as it can travel much faster than any current passenger jet. I'm tired of sitting on a tight space air place for hours just to get to my destination. The only thing worth looking at are the female air stewardess (sometimes they are pretty and sometime they're aren't). I've heard the international flight one's has the best.

 

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And by the way you are wrong. the European and American aircraft industries are healthy between them they have sold more than 20000 jet airliners and still are selling many aircraft.
The problem is not program, you are very wrong, the problem is make money with it, having a prototype does not guarantee success, many aircraft never go beyond a few examples.

I believe the actual problem is that it cost the European and American aircraft industries more and more to build it in order to sustain a viable profit margarine. By this I mean the program is getting too expensive to sustain by themselves without tax payers help, therefore making it subject-able to violating WTO rules because of government money is use in the form subsidies. That's why European and American aircraft industries has to outsource many of their production over seas to save as much cost as possible, but the pressure to provide profits to keep the share holders happy is getting a lot more difficult everyday. In the long run something has to give.

So as a result, China doesn't face this kind of corporate share holders demand and profit pressures like the Europeans and Americans do. At least not yet. Therefore it has more wiggle room to not only grow and closed the gap but to excel as well since it is more of a mix SOE and corporation operated. I believe Russia is the same way, but I'm not sure.

 

[dingyibvs]

start with the investment, why do you think Russia started with Sukhoi Superjet?
Russia already has the Il-96, the reason is the investment, larger the aircraft requieres more investment, because the aircraft are pushing the limits, so they started like China with the ARJ-21, but with Sukhoi superjet, and later with Ms-21, these aircraft can be built in larger numbers and are more in demand the chances they can recover the investment is higher.

In Europe was the same, all partners of Airbus can make aircraft by their own, but duplicating programs means you pay the whole investment, China will pay 50% and Russia 50% going alone means paying 100% and competing for smaller market allotted to each company going alone .

Sharing means sharing profits but also reducing risks.


Further more China has no experience, Russia already build the Il-96, has exported commercial jets, has some prestige.


The fact is COMAC understand that, so they so Russia as a partner, you like it or not Russia has much more experience but in modern times aircraft are becoming more and more expensive, so even Boeing goes to Japan and shares some work with them so they can sell more.Consider Japan has made the parts allotted to more than 3000 Boeing aircraft, yes you might think Japan is second fiddle to the USA, but it is not since the B-767, going up to the B-787 all these aircraft have parts made in Japan.

Russia`s UAC and China understand that, so like Airbus, Embraer or Boeing/japanese airspace are doing, going on a joint venture is much better than going alone/

Aircraft like B-777 are more expensive than B-737, you can make more money by unit airplane sold true but the investment risk is higher

That sounds great in theory, but is Russia willing to share the experience and tech? I think not. I think they just want Chinese money to subsidize their own tech development. In the end, the Chinese will do it themselves anyway, except with money wasted subsidizing the Russian aerospace program.

 

[Orthan]

That sounds great in theory, but is Russia willing to share the experience and tech? I think not. I think they just want Chinese money to subsidize their own tech development. In the end, the Chinese will do it themselves anyway, except with money wasted subsidizing the Russian aerospace program.

And do you think that china will let russia get all the development themselves? if china doesnt get expertise from the program, expect it to eventually and quietly to grind to a halt. China cares to its interests first.

 

[b787]

I believe the actual problem is that it cost the European and American aircraft industries more and more to build it in order to sustain a viable profit margarine. By this I mean the program is getting too expensive to sustain by themselves without tax payers help, therefore making it subject-able to violating WTO rules because of government money is use in the form subsidies. That's why European and American aircraft industries has to outsource many of their production over seas to save as much cost as possible, but the pressure to provide profits to keep the share holders happy is getting a lot more difficult everyday. In the long run something has to give.

So as a result, China doesn't face this kind of corporate share holders demand and profit pressures like the Europeans and Americans do. At least not yet. Therefore it has more wiggle room to not only grow and closed the gap but to excel as well since it is more of a mix SOE and corporation operated. I believe Russia is the same way, but I'm not sure.

the problem is not that, the problem is the market it self.

China and Russia decided to go alone in the regional and medium size aircraft like ARJ-21 and MS-21, ARJ-21 is competing directly with the Sukhoi Superjet, C919 is competing with MS-21, but in the widebody sector they want a joint venture common program.

The question is why?

First is unit price, the ARJ-21 and the Superjet are relatively cheap around 30-40 million dollars, but the dreamliner is not, a B-787 is almost 7 times more expensive,

MS-21 is cheaper, much cheaper around 60-70 million dollars, trying to sell the larger B-787 or B-777 is much harder, the investment also is different, the larger the aircraft more investment needed but lower production numbers, so it makes sense for China to choose Russia for two reasons, if the go trying to compete with Boeing or Airbus directly and alone, the risks are higher, if they can not recover the investment then the project becomes a hindrance and a failure, specially for China that has no experience, even Brazil did not want compete directly with Boeing and Airbus, so E-195 is not competing directly with B-737, but C919 is, the risk of failure is higher in the widebody sector.


MD-10 had such trouble, when they were competing with the MD-8 directly with the B-707 Boeing beat them, by the time the MD-10 was competing with the B-767, their MD-11 lost the battle.

See how difficult is the market, just compare Convair C880 with B-707, Convair had the aircraft but not the market

The fact China or Russia can go alone does not make them automatically successful, thus Russia and China are going together why? simple by each part COMAC and UAC paying only 50% not 100% they are reducing the risks of failure, they are investing less money, and they are sharing market.

If their project becomes a failure, the money they invested is less, thus they protect them selves more

 

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the problem is not that, the problem is the market it self.

China and Russia decided to go alone in the regional and medium size aircraft like ARJ-21 and MS-21, ARJ-21 is competing directly with the Sukhoi Superjet, C919 is competing with MS-21, but in the widebody sector they want a joint venture common program.

The question is why?

First is unit price, the ARJ-21 and the Superjet are relatively cheap around 30-40 million dollars, but the dreamliner is not, a B-787 is almost 7 times more expensive,

MS-21 is cheaper, much cheaper around 60-70 million dollars, trying to sell the larger B-787 or B-777 is much harder, the investment also is different, the larger the aircraft more investment needed but lower production numbers, so it makes sense for China to choose Russia for two reasons, if the go trying to compete with Boeing or Airbus directly and alone, the risks are higher, if they can not recover the investment then the project becomes a hindrance and a failure, specially for China that has no experience, even Brazil did not want compete directly with Boeing and Airbus, so E-195 is not competing directly with B-737, but C919 is, the risk of failure is higher in the widebody sector.


MD-10 had such trouble, when they were competing with the MD-8 directly with the B-707 Boeing beat them, by the time the MD-10 was competing with the B-767, their MD-11 lost the battle.

See how difficult is the market, just compare Convair C880 with B-707, Convair had the aircraft but not the market

The fact China or Russia can go alone does not make them automatically successful, thus Russia and China are going together why? simple by each part COMAC and UAC paying only 50% not 100% they are reducing the risks of failure, they are investing less money, and they are sharing market.

If their project becomes a failure, the money they invested is less, thus they protect them selves more

But China has a way bigger market than Russia to successfully go it alone. Why do you think Boeing and Airbus depends on that market so much? If they just sell it to the US and European market alone, that would not be sufficient profit to sustain the program.

Now as to why Russia and China are partnering on this project? I don't know, probably political. Russia needs China economic clout and China's good relations with the EU and US without any sanctions to sale airplanes parts and services from. Otherwise Russia is under major economic sanctions that prevents it to be able to access not only major market, but services and trades as well. The question for Russia is keeping the annexation of Crimea worth it?

 

[b787]

But China has a way bigger market than Russia to successfully go it alone. Why do you think Boeing and Airbus depends on that market so much? If they just sell it to the US and European market alone, that would not be sufficient profit to sustain the program.

Now as to why Russia and China are partnering on this project? I don't know, probably political. Russia needs China economic clout and China's good relations with the EU and US without any sanctions to sale airplanes parts and services from. Otherwise Russia is under major economic sanctions that prevents it to be able to access not only major market, but services and trades as well. The question for Russia is keeping the annexation of Crimea worth it?

it has nothing to do with that, everything is ticket price and safety.

Airliners buy aircraft that their clients fly, airliners charge money, the ticket price is related to the ability to recover the aircraft purchasing price, maintenance costs, operating costs, then you get an airfare.

Why Aeroflot did not use Tu-154s or Tu-204? the answer is simple Airbus aircraft offered cheaper prices, so if you compete with another airliner you can offer better deals then you get a better plane.

People buy tickets upon two factors can i pay it? can i afford it? and the safety factor, will i come back from my trip healthy and without any trouble?

If you use logic flying in a Tu-154 is the same thing than flying on a B-787, both fly, but the difference is the safety factor, ticket price, operating prices, etc etc.


China can force COMAC aircraft upon the domestic Chinese airliners, yes they can, but is it better? i mean economically speaking?

On large aircraft the investment is more expensive, thus it makes sense to COMAC to partner with UAC.

In the domestic sector flying smaller aicrraft they think they can build aircraft to compete directly with Boeing or Airbus, the COMAC C-919 and ARJ-21.

You can have the market, but if you do not have the better plane it does not matter, when American companies need an Airbus they buy it because of all those factors and same is European companies, if they need a Boeing well they buy it.

Chinese companies follow the same principles, and COMAC know the risks, thus partnering with Russia makes sense

The only political aspect is both Russia and China are in disadvantage with respect Boeing and Airbus in the large sector, and Embraer and Bombardier in the smaller aircraft regional type market.

Both think they can take some sectors with their domestic products but not against the B-777 or A-350 type aircraft. So they decided to join forces with each other, in some sectors they are rivals, in other they are allies and partners; everything is money

 

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China can force COMAC aircraft upon the domestic Chinese airliners, yes they can, but is it better? i mean economically speaking?

On large aircraft the investment is more expensive, thus it makes sense to COMAC to partner with UAC.

Of course China can. Why not? It doesn't matter how expensive it is. What matters is that China can do it and sell it for their own domestic use which in turn provide a good reputation for foreign airliners to test the water and start buying from China, since after all Boeing and Airbus has had issues with delivering new planes on time especially when the air traveling are getting more in high demand. Major airlines can not wait that long for their planes that they paid for to be delivered or else they keep losing potential profits with older planes and more demanding maintenance. In my opinion the major reason the COMAC partnering up with UAC is because UAC is suffering from continuing shrinking profits due to economic sanctions. If UAC wants to keep their company and program going they need cash flow and right now they are hurting, that's why they need COMAC partnership to develop a new wide body to compete with the Boeing and Airbus. As for why China and COMAC are partnering with UAC is probably to get in with the old Soviet block states market (although very small compare to China). That don't make economic sense right? So what is it? It can't be engines, air frames, avionics or software, because both China and Russia can do that on their own if money is not the factor. We have to wait and see.

 

[b787]

Of course China can. Why not? It doesn't matter how expensive it is. What matters is that China can do it and sell it for their own domestic use which in turn provide a good reputation for foreign airliners to test the water and start buying from China, since after all Boeing and Airbus has had issues with delivering new planes on time especially when the air traveling are getting more in high demand. Major airlines can not wait that long for their planes that they paid for to be delivered or else they keep losing potential profits with older planes and more demanding maintenance. In my opinion the major reason the COMAC partnering up with UAC is because UAC is suffering from continuing shrinking profits due to economic sanctions. If UAC wants to keep their company and program going they need cash flow and right now they are hurting, that's why they need COMAC partnership to develop a new wide body to compete with the Boeing and Airbus. As for why China and COMAC are partnering with UAC is probably to get in with the old Soviet block states market (although very small compare to China). That don't make economic sense right? So what is it? It can't be engines, air frames, avionics or software, because both China and Russia can do that on their own if money is not the factor. We have to wait and see.

For starters you do not wait and see, COMAC and UAC have already signed the agreement for the widebody aircraft


The Chinese market is 4 times bigger than the CIS market according to estimates, but still of the 13000 new airplanes estimated to be bought in the next 20 years in the Asia pacific area, only 6000 are Chinese. So there is market, in an open Market airliners will buy the aircraft based upon the ticket price they can offer to their customers and the type of air routes they can use, thus is not as easy as you think.

I will simply tell you that the true winners are the most efficient aircraft, does not matter if China buys C-919 and Russia MS-21, if these two can not beat the competition in ticket price and profits, airliners at the long run will continue buying Airbus and Boeing.

And you will see it in the orders you get by 2030.

If these 2 newcomers are efficient they might get better market share, but airliners will choose efficient aircraft, does not matter if they are made by the country they belong to or by foreign manufactures

 

[delft]

I don't care what it will be, as long as it can travel much faster than any current passenger jet. I'm tired of sitting on a tight space air place for hours just to get to my destination. The only thing worth looking at are the female air stewardess (sometimes they are pretty and sometime they're aren't). I've heard the international flight one's has the best.

That is bound to be much more expensive in fuel and money. The way not to have to sit tight is to think outside the tubular fuselage. Go for an airship. Sleep in a bed with your wife, or a hammock ( that would be cheaper ) in a cabin in which you can work - you will have internet there. The journey will take longer - four days if you go 20 000 km to the other side of the World but it wouldn't be lost time.