Chinese Economics Thread

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Guys...and you know who you are...STOP the Japan bashing.

Japan is still a very strong power and carries a lot of influence and capability in the world.

This thread is about the Chinese Economy, that doe s not need, or include, Japan bashing.

Any more of that will lead to suspensions.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Christchurch which suffered intensive earthquake damage in 2011 was rebuilt using mostly standard and dating design norms therefore an opportunity to apply the latest in green technology was lost. Meanwhile to the envy of many green enthusiasts, China has skyscrapers that use solar panels that double as windows to generate all the power the building requires summer and winter.(That’s what disappointed green technology friends who have been to China and actually seen the buildings told me)

Up until fairly recently in its history, Christchurch was a city whose business and inhabitants consumed large amounts of coal. In winter and because of the geography of the area around Christchurch, it used to get as smoggy as some of photos one sees of selected Chinese cities.

Christchurch never consumed large amount of coal .... it is true the air is a bit smoggy like somewhat Beijing in Winter. They used (still do) wood fireplace for heating and quite bad in Winter ... FYI .. there is no LNG network in South Island in NZ
 
now I read
China Exclusive: Morgan Stanley's Gorman says uncertainties in Chinese economy "overestimated"
Xinhua| 2017-06-03 19:56:30
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Morgan Stanley chairman and CEO James Gorman said the market "overestimated the uncertainties in China," reaffirming the investment bank's bullish stance on the world's second largest economy.

Gorman told Xinhua on the sidelines of Morgan Stanley's China Summit, which ran from Wednesday to Friday in Beijing.

"China has recognized it has to slow the debt-to-
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
growth, deleverage and open up its capital market. All of these things happen in small steps, but generally I think China is relatively well-positioned to weather the challenges."

His remarks came amid jitters about the country's financial risks including bond default and debt problems.

Rating agency Moody's lowered China's long-term local currency and foreign currency issuer ratings from Aa3 to A1, the same level as
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

Gorman said he was not "terribly troubled by that" as the rating was still strong.

"The downgrade is a sign that China needs to start deleveraging, but I think the Chinese government was already on that path. The market reaction to it was relatively muted," Gorman said. "The economy is going through enormous transition but is fundamentally stable."

Chinese financial regulators are increasing risk control and deleveraging as a firmer economic footing in the first quarter provided more scope for adjustments.

Risks are common in an economy of China's size, Gorman said. "But if you see through the risks, China remains a pretty attractive investment opportunity."

The Chinese economy posted 6.9-percent growth in the first quarter of this year, the fastest increase in 18 months and above the 6.8 percent registered in the previous quarter. But concerns are on the rise that the momentum may soften soon and some analysts have predicted that growth has peaked and a downturn will take shape in the second half.

Gorman believes China's push for an economic shift from investment to consumption will sustain growth. "China can create a true high-income economy, and a domestic consumption- and service-driven economy. There has been steady progress."

Consumption contributed 77.2 percent of the economic growth in the first quarter, up from 64.6 percent in 2016, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The proportion of services also improved.

In a lengthy report released in March, the New York-based investment bank predicted China would be able to avoid the middle income trap, with its per capita income reaching 12,900 U.S. dollars to become a high-income country in the next decade, up from the current 8,100 U.S. dollars.

The economic transition, however, will still be challenging, Gorman said.

He pointed out there was more to do in improving financial transparency and helping state-owned enterprises become competitive globally. "The Chinese economy is thriving because it is innovating," Gorman said, citing business leaders including Alibaba and adding that he hoped more Chinese tech firms would continue to innovate.

"It will have some tough moments over the next decade, which is unavoidable. But that does not change our long-term view on China, therefore, Morgan Stanley needs to have a bigger presence here."

Morgan Stanley's meeting assembled global investors looking for new opportunities in the country and executives from domestic listed firms eager to expand internationally.

"Global investors are more positive than a year or two ago. President
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
's strong leadership and important decisions have positioned China well for the future," Gorman said.

A pioneer in the Chinese market, Morgan Stanley will celebrate its 23rd anniversary here this year with more than 1,000 local employees.

During the interview, Gorman also said while politically the global picture is uncertain, economically the world is "solid and stable," with stronger growth in the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and Japan, as well as the recovery in the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
  1. The new line of 401 km long TGV Baoji-Lanzhou has just started the testing phase, the inauguration is expected by July.

    DBZ3KpNXYAARh2C.jpg


 
  1. The new line of 401 km long TGV Baoji-Lanzhou ...

let me see ...
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I knew where's Lanzhou (OK "knew" to the extent I would start looking in the middle of China :) I don't know how came, perhaps because I previously looked at Lanzhou - Urumchi line), I of course didn't know where's Baoji, which is now marked:
ul5vQ.jpg
the map shows the whole Xian - Urumchi segment
 

A.Man

Major
It's Not All China But China Has Made The US Consumer Vastly Richer, Contrary To Trump's Assertions

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


It's entirely true that China has been exporting vast great gobs of manufactures to the United States. Very much more than the people of that country have been buying from Americans. There are those, like the incumbent President, Donald Trump, who insist that this means that America and Americans have been getting poorer. That insistence is of course the wrong way around, that China is making cheap goods which Americans then buy is what makes those Americans richer. This is obvious from the basic truth that the reason for trade is to gain access to those imports which do make us richer.

At which point an interesting little chart from
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
:

durablegoodsinflation.jpg

Mark Perry, by permission

Relative inflation rates US

As Perry goes on to point out:

We hear a lot about how China “steals” America’s production, jobs, and wealth. According to President Trump, “the money and the jobs China has taken from us is the greatest single theft in the history of the United States.” Here’s another way to look at it: The billions of dollars Americans have saved from buying low-cost products made in China since 1995, and the US jobs that have been created by the additional spending from those savings is one of the biggest transfers of wealth (or “theft” in Trump-speak) in the history of the United States. Instead of continually criticizing our largest trading partner, maybe we should show a little more appreciation to the country that has probably done more to raise America’s standard of living by providing us low-cost durable goods, clothing, and footwear than any country in the history of the United States.

The expansion of China's manufacturing capacity does indeed mean that there are more manufactures around for people to consume. If we can consume more we're richer, that's the very definition of it. Thus, of course, China's expansion makes us richer--the trade deficit is just a symptom of how much richer we are becoming.

But there's more to it than just this. Look at the difference in the inflation rates of the different items. Now, this is not all about China, there is going to be some of Baumol's Cost Disease in there. It is always going to be true that services (although perhaps not non-durable manufactures) will rise in price relative to durable manufactures as we become generally more productive. A not accurate but useful rule of thumb here would be that the difference between the services inflation and the non-durables inflation is that Cost Disease, the difference between the non-durables and durables is the effect of China. No, absolutely not accurate but a useful way of pegging rough contributions.

And then we have to recall that the US is, largely speaking, a services based
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
:

This has been a boon to just about everyone in the US economy, and the first chart is also proof of that. Consider that the price of "services" is largely driven by wages, and service sector workers are about 86% of total payrolls. What the chart shows is that the earnings of the great majority of US workers have increased 2.7 times more than the price of durable goods. In other words, an hour's worth of work for the typical American today buys 2.7 times more in the way of durable goods than it did in 1995. When it comes to durable goods, the average American's purchasing power has nearly tripled over the past 22 years, thanks largely to China.

That is of course the flip side of that very same Baumol's Cost Disease. What causes the Disease is that wages go up with the average productivity of the economy. Thus production costs, wages,--of services say--where productivity doesn't increase very much must rise with the average productivity of the economy. The flip side of that is that if there are sectors where productivity is increasing much faster--say durable goods--then their prices must be falling much faster relative to the average wage level. This is just running the same facts through the same model the other way around.

Far from Donald Trump's insistence that China has made us poorer being true the reality is that importing things from China has made American consumers considerably richer.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
My experience visiting Hong Kong aligns with the author's, Peter Kammerer, opinion that lots of Hong Kongers hold outdated views on the Mainland that are frequently based on hearsay, ignorance, and outright prejudice. There were times the Mainland ethos felt like a breath of fresh air when I crossed into Shenzhen from Hong Kong- true story.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Predicting what Hong Kong would be like 20 years after returning to Chinese sovereignty was tricky in 1997. Mainland China’s economy was on the march and pundits held a diverse range of opinions. The widely held view was that our city was the model Beijing wanted to emulate, so what we had would largely remain and the mainland would become more like us. We now know better.

Gone will be the logjams created by self-centred lawmakers ... Vested interests will no longer be allowed to dictate for personal gain
I believe that, come 2037, our political system will be more like the mainland’s and that
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
for everyday life. Gone will be the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, replaced by a legislative process where all are working for the good of our city, the region and the nation. Vested interests will no longer be allowed to dictate for personal gain, the way our big businesses, and sometimes government entities, now do. There will still be one country and two systems, although the differences will be less obvious.

Yes, I am apolitical – some would contend politically naive. I know that no government is perfect and, no matter how good its policies, there will always be objectors. But it is obvious that our government is not functioning as it should, while Beijing is making great improvements for its people. As their wealth and circumstances improve, ours seem to be either stagnating or looking bleak.

Hongkongers are too often immature on mainland matters. Many still have a giant chip on their shoulder, contending that their city and the way they think is superior – much of it ingrained prejudice based more on hearsay than experience. The result is that, while we dilly-dally with adopting digital payment systems, fight against Uber-type taxi services and pussyfoot with waste disposal, on the mainland, they get on with it.

Hongkongers are too often immature on mainland matters ... much of it ingrained prejudice
I’ve made a dozen mainland trips in recent years, as much out of curiosity as for relaxation. The stereotypes held by many Hongkongers are not valid. Mainlanders are not backward in their thinking, nor rude. Rather, it is often Hongkongers who stand out in the crowd, their arrogance on full display along with their loud voices.

Perceptions about the basics of mainland life largely do not hold true. Food is often fresher, because there, it is closer to the same source as that of most of what we buy in our shops. The hot spring resort pools are not awash with urine and thieves do not lurk on every corner. I apply the same rules there as when I’m in a place I’m unfamiliar with; be careful.

8f7cc2f4-499b-11e7-a842-aa003dd7e62a_1320x770_131601.JPG


Obviously, all is not perfect. The government censorship of the internet and foreign media is stifling for someone merely seeking information, let alone wanting to do overseas business or be entertained. There is an understanding about being non-political and watching what is said or read. Toilets in public places can be a nightmare. The clouds of cigarette smoke can be noxious. There is not the same attention to maintenance as in Hong Kong.

These are anecdotal observations; they, media access and my almost three decades as a Hongkonger, are all I have for my crystal ball-gazing into our city’s future. I am not like many of the economic and political analysts pre-1997, who relied on scant public information or the views of “a source wanting to remain anonymous” for their opinions. And if there are any doubts, simply listen to leaders like Politburo Standing Committee member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
( 張德江 ), who last month said all in our government must be “patriots who respect the Chinese people, sincerely support resumption of sovereignty and pose no threat to prosperity and stability”. Those are not the words of someone who wants the mainland to be more like Hong Kong; quite the reverse.
 

Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
OK, anyone can play this balance ruse.
It doesn't necessarily mean you can build a support base for a moderator seat LoL.
I see it coming a mile away LoL.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



China's $17 Trillion Debt Mountain Isn't as Scary as It Looks
by
Kana Nishizawa
and
Lianting Tu
June 5, 2017, 12:00 PM EDT
  • The country’s top firms are cleaning up their balance sheets
  • Deutsche Asset is bullish on large-cap Chinese stocks
There’s been no shortage of bad news when it comes to China’s massive debt pile, from turbulence in the corporate bond market to last month’s sovereign rating downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service.

But look beyond the negative headlines, and one encouraging fact stands out: China’s biggest companies are healthier than they’ve been in years.

Thanks to a combination of economic stimulus and state-owned enterprise reform, debt-to-equity ratios at China’s largest non-financial firms have dropped to the lowest levels since 2010. Gauges of profitability and interest payment capacity are the strongest in at least five years, while free cash flows have never been bigger.

60x-1.png

The improvements could help ease fears of a looming financial crisis in the world’s second-largest economy, even though smaller Chinese companies have made less progress so far. Deutsche Asset Management, which oversees about $800 billion, says stronger balance sheets support a bullish outlook for China’s stock market after the Shanghai Composite Index trailed all of its Asian peers this year.

“We’re quite positive on Chinese stocks generally, especially larger caps,’’ said Sean Taylor, chief investment officer for Asia Pacific at Deutsche Asset in Hong Kong. “Profits are rising and they’re not taking on as much debt.”

The prevailing mood in Chinese markets is much more downbeat. Even before Moody’s cut the government’s credit rating on May 24, fund managers surveyed by Bank of America Corp.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
tightening credit conditions in China as the top “tail risk” for global financial markets. A government crackdown on leverage helped push company bond yields to a two-year high last month, rekindling anxiety over a corporate debt load that swelled to an estimated $17 trillion last year, or 156 percent of gross domestic product.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Despite those concerns, vital signs at the country’s largest listed companies are getting stronger. The market capitalization-weighted average debt-to-equity ratio at China’s 100 biggest non-financial businesses dropped to 68 percent at the end of last year from 72 percent in 2015, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Profit margins and interest coverage ratios also improved, while free cash flows for the group swelled to a record $93 billion.

60x-1.png

Stronger corporate credit metrics help explain why there’s been little sign of a pickup in defaults as borrowing costs rise, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“We see plenty of room for policies to tighten without resulting in widespread corporate distress,” Kenneth Ho, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a research report dated May 31.

Accelerating economic growth has made it easier for big companies to repair their balance sheets. China’s GDP increased 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier -- the first back-to-back acceleration in seven years -- as investment, retail sales and factory output all strengthened. Raw-materials producers got an added boost from government-led efforts to reduce oversupply.

The capacity cuts are part of President Xi Jinping’s plan to revamp the country’s state-owned enterprises, which dominate the ranks of big mainland-listed stocks. Chinese policy makers see higher SOE profitability as a key element of the nation’s shift toward a more sustainable economic growth model.

“Some of the industrial companies remain heavily in debt, but the situation is improving,” said Jing Ulrich, vice chairman of Asia Pacific at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong.

Temporary Boost
To be sure, the financial metrics compiled by Bloomberg exclude unlisted borrowers and heavily-indebted local governments. Skeptics say even the improvements at big public companies are temporary -- the result of economic pump-priming before a politically-sensitive leadership reshuffle in the ruling Communist Party toward the end of this year. The economy’s strong start to 2017 has already shown signs of leveling off, with a private gauge of manufacturing signaling a contraction in May.

Raw-materials producers are particularly vulnerable amid a pullback in commodities prices, according to Xia Le, a Hong Kong-based economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA.

And yet, shares of China’s biggest companies are rising. The CSI 300 Index of large-cap stocks has climbed 4.8 percent this year, versus a 0.4 percent retreat in the Shanghai Composite and a 10 percent drop in the smaller-company ChiNext index.

While government
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
has probably fueled some of the large-cap rally, AIA Group Ltd.’s Mark Konyn sees scope for optimism.

Big businesses are “key heavyweights in the economy,” said Konyn, group chief investment officer at the Hong Kong-based insurer. “They are a good indicator of what’s going on.”
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China automobile industry is roaring while their Japanese counter part is sinking
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Guangzhou automobile is going to be one of the best. They have one of the most automated car factory resulting in higher quality. Once they master the engine design they should be unbeatable


China automakers rally, leave Japan counterparts in the dust
Mainland motor stocks rally again and continue to set the pace this year amid a boom in vehicle sales
By
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
JUNE 5, 2017 6:07 PM (UTC+8
Mainland automakers roared forward on Monday as shares of Guangzhou Automobile Group jumped the most in a month after the company reported that total vehicle sales in May surged by more than 20%.

Investors cheered Guangzhou Automobile’s announcement after market close on Friday that vehicle sales in May increased to 165,505 from 135,389 in the same period last year.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
It climbed by 4.7% on Monday to HK$13.32, with more than HK$500 million (US$64.1 million) worth of shares changing hands.

THE DAILYBrief

Must-reads from across Asia - directly to your inbox
Meanwhile, Geely Automobile Holdings continued its winning streak, rising for the tenth time in 11 trading sessions. It edged up 1.6% to HK$14.40 and is the best performer on Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index this year, gaining 94.3% so far. The recent rally in the Hangzhou-based automaker gained momentum after Zhejiang Geely Holding, which indirectly controls about 44% of Geely Automobile, announced on May 24 it had reached
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Elsewhere, Great Wall Motor Company increased 2.1% to HK$8.73 and Dongfeng Motor Group gained 1.9% to HK$9.05.

Mainland auto stocks have been a hot ticket for investors this year amid the boom in China’s car production.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, up from 28 million last year. That target hit a speed bump after data last month showed passenger vehicle sales in April dropped 3.7% from the same period last year, but total vehicle sales are still up 4.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2017.

While mainland automakers have surged forward this year, Japan’s leading car producers have been stuck in a tailspin. Toyota Motor Co., Subaru Corp. and Mazda Motor Corp. have all reported drops in operating profit exceeding 25% for the previous fiscal year.


A slump in the US dollar has weighed on Japan’s automakers as proceeds from overseas sales are diminished when repatriated back to Japan. The greenback traded near to a six-week low against the yen on Monday at 110.49.

Among 2,013 members on Japan’s TOPIX, Mazda is the 38th worst-performer so far this year, down 20.7% to 1,517 yen (US$13.73). Subaru is the 40th worst performer and Toyota ranks as the 105th worst, according to Bloomberg data.
 
Top