China Flanker Thread II

[SinoSoldier]

PS: but as far as I know, the J-11B is no longer in production since some time ???

Yeah, I'm certainly not the only one confused at this point. Maybe this J-11B is simply the #554 prototype, but who knows.

 

[Blitzo]

The consensus is that the J-11D will continue, as it offers several key advantages over the Su-35 (& vice versa, of course). In fact, PUPU himself refuted the rumors that the PLAAF has rejected the J-11D.

Well if pupu says so...

what's the track record of baizhandao?

 

[SinoSoldier]

Another possibility behind the concurrent J-11B production and Su-35 procurement could be a massive jump in the requirement of advanced Flankers. This way, the PLAAF would be continuously receiving Flankers as it awaits the induction of the J-11D, after which the J-11B will almost definitely stop building.

 

[SinoSoldier]

Well if pupu says so...

what's the track record of baizhandao?

To be honest I'm not in the position to judge the credibility of any posters. His article was quoted by "angadow", which (I believe) belongs to a CJDBY moderator.

 

[Blitzo]

Another possibility behind the concurrent J-11B production and Su-35 procurement could be a massive jump in the requirement of advanced Flankers. This way, the PLAAF would be continuously receiving Flankers as it awaits the induction of the J-11D, after which the J-11B will almost definitely stop building.

Sure, there are all kinds of ways to rationalize why J-11B production may be occurring -- but the reason this is new, is what does the production of J-11B mean for the production of J-16 and J-15? Because the idea was that J-11B production had ceased and shifted to J-16 and J-15. If they had never stopped J-11B production or if they restarted it, then that would have to cause us to significantly reassess the timeline over the last few years and estimates for SAC flanker airframe distribution.

To be honest I'm not in the position to judge the credibility of any posters. His article was quoted by "angadow", which (I believe) belongs to a CJDBY moderator.

hmmm

Well if this guy is right, we should be expecting some orders for additional Su-35s in the next year or two. If not, well...

 

[Deino]

To be honest I'm not in the position to judge the credibility of any posters. His article was quoted by "angadow", which (I believe) belongs to a CJDBY moderator.

"angadow" however is quite reliable ... just again; could You please post the full link to the original post since I only get a "visitor's" weibo-page.

 

[SinoSoldier]

"angadow" however is quite reliable ... just again; could You please post the full link to the original post since I only get a "visitor's" weibo-page.

I don't think I can post a link for non-members, but I hope the raw text would do:

中国可能扩大采购苏-35战机，国产歼-11D战机前景不明

而且最近还出现了新出厂的歼-11B小改款黄皮机。
近日，有外国网友在国外大型社交网站上传了一张图片，显示一群俄罗斯工程人员在1架疑似中国购买的苏-35战斗机前合影。该网友还援引俄罗斯飞机制造公司消息称，这些俄方工程人员是厂家派往中国对苏-35战斗机进行售后维护和服务的团队成员。

在此之前，俄罗斯塔斯社也报道称，俄方继去年12月底首次向中国交付4架苏-35战斗机后，将于今年和明年再各交付10架。也就是说，中国首批采购的全部24架苏-35战斗机会于明年交付完毕。

尽管不少人对我国在国产隐身第四代战斗机歼-20已陆续试装部队的情况下，是否应继续引进3.75代战斗机苏-35持完全否定态度，近期来自俄罗斯权威媒体、国内知名军事自媒体的消息却显示，中国很可能不但会继续引进苏-35，而且引进的总体规模还不会小。

中国空军加速淘汰二代和早期三代战机
随着我国军改进入“脖子以下”改革攻坚年，空军部队编制改革和调整也开始有实质性动作。歼-7战斗机团、强五强击机团等二代机团数量将会大幅度压缩。预计包括歼-7、歼-8、强五等在内的二代战机可能于2020年后，最迟2025年全部退出现役；20多年前引进的苏-27SK/UBK战机开始陆续退役；歼-10A/B、歼-11B（旧款）等早期三代战机已停产，JH-7A战斗轰炸机也处于极其低速的生产状态。

目前我国主要生产3.5代及以上战机，包括歼-10C/D、歼-11D（试飞阶段）、歼-16、歼-16D（试飞阶段）、歼-20（试装阶段）等。仍在继续低速生产的三代机除了前面提及的JH-7A，还有歼-10S（双座战斗教练机）、歼-11B新款（推测升级了雷达等设备）、歼-11BS（双座战斗教练机）、歼-15（舰载战斗机）等。

作战任务决定装备需求。面对我国周边国家装备的越来越的F-35等四代战机，我国空军现有大量二代、早期三代战机越来越派不上用场，必须加速构建以四代机为骨干，三代以上战机为主体的作战装备体系。因此，出现前述战机生产状况的变化是意料中事。

对应这一装备体系可以看出，歼-10C/D战机很好的填补了我国中型3.5代战机的空白；歼-20战机是四代机目前的不二选择；歼-16战机则将全面替换JH-7A、苏-30、强五等战术攻击机。只是在重型3.5代战机这一块，国产战机还没有能顶上的型号，与之对应的歼-11D战机仍处于原型机试飞阶段。

所以，在引进苏-35战机前出现的“坚决反对引进论”，引进后出现的“不再引进论”，并不符合我国空军装备发展需求的实际，也是对我军未来面对的空战压力的忽视。须知F-35战机将批量出现在日本、韩国，甚至亚太更多国家已是必然。而且无论某些专家或业内人士如何贬低，F-35作为一款典型四代战机，对四代以下战机的压倒性优势都是不争的事实。

在加速歼-20战机试用试装，尽早开始批量装备部队，主要用以应对F-35、F-22等别国四代战机的同时，中国空中力量必须有足够的3.5代战机压制别国四代以下战机，以使得歼-20战机可以心无旁骛的全力对“敌”。

苏-35战机须形成规模以发挥更大作战效能
中国于去年确定进口24架苏-35战机后，我国军工自主研发的歼-11D战机也消息不断。先后有该型机的01、02号原型机曝光，更有网友于四川某地机场拍到推测是驻扎当地进行高原试飞的歼-11D、歼-16D（电战型）“双D”战机。

然而，从那时算起，即使一切顺利的话，歼-11D战机完成厂家试飞，进入空军试飞部队试装、编写训练大纲和教材至少还需两年，也就是要到明后年。预计在全部24架苏-35战机交付中国空军后，歼-11D战机最好的进度应该是处于小批量试装阶段。

如此一来，当歼-11D战机状态达到批量列装状态时，就与已是空军正式装备的苏-35战机有了约两年的时间差。面对复杂多变、压力渐增的我国周边环境，空军是否会忽略这一时间差？

按照”能打仗、打胜仗“，一切从实战出发的要求，空军显然不会在主战装备建设上”等靠“。所以，继续引进更多苏-35战机成为现实的，也是可行的办法。

回顾中国于上世纪90年代初开始的引进苏-27系列战机的历程，仅有一型装备海军航空兵的苏-30MK2只引进了1个团24架的数量，其他战机引进数量都在76架以上。苏-30MK2仅引进24架也是因为中方使用后发现，对于最急需的精确对海攻击能力，该型机在弹种丰富程度上甚至不及国产JH-7A战斗轰炸机。当然，该型机因其双座双发、作战半径大、可发射中距拦射导弹的特点，仍被海军当做远程制空战斗机使用。

因此，从规模效应的角度来说，中国未来继续引进两至三个团数量的苏-35战机，是很有可能的事情。届时，最多可达96架的苏-35战斗机可分别在我国南部、东部战区形成两大3.5代重型战机突击群。这两大突击群配合歼-20战机，无论是应对从南面袭来的美海军战机，还是面对东面的日本空自战机，都可以底气充足的一较高下。

歼-11D与苏-35相比各有优劣，但在时间上不占优势
歼-11D战机的优势在于：机载有源相控阵火控雷达（AESA）应该优于苏-35战机的无源相控阵雷达，而且改进升级潜力更大；配套的中距拦射导弹、近距格斗导弹等国产弹药性能也优于苏-35配套弹药。其与苏-35一样应用了数字电传飞控系统，但两者性能是否一致，或是各有优劣，目前尚不得而知。

苏-35战机的优势在于：机身结构经过重大优化设计；机体寿命大大延长；机动性更出色；发动机更给力；内油量更大，因此航程和作战半径也更大；有效载荷更大，能携带的武器弹药也更多。此外，虽然原配俄制精确制导弹药相比中国国产同类弹药并无优势，但苏-35确实是一款“双重任务战斗机”，任务延展性更强。相比较而言，歼-11D战机因为有了歼-16战机的存在，定位更偏向于较纯粹的3.5代空优战斗机。

歼-11D战机原本最大的优势在于是国货，其采购仅受限于产能，不像苏-35战机的引进那样，还要考虑很多采购以外的因素。然后，目前歼-11D战机的研发进度仍不明朗，迟迟未有厂家定型，转入部队试飞试用的消息传出。

服役时间未定这一点大大抵消了歼-11D战机的国货优势。在歼-10C批量装备部队，歼-10D研发顺利的当前，中国空军更加渴望尽早大批量装备同属3.5代的双发重型战斗机，以适应越来越多的远空、远海作战和训练需求。

在歼-16这款3.5代双重任务战斗机日趋成熟，装备部队的数量也较快增长之时，中国空军对新型战术攻击机的需求得到初步满足。剩下的新型重型战机需求，就被可以相对容易得到的苏-35战机填补了。所以，继续引进、引进更多的苏-35战斗机，已成中国空军于主客观因素影响下很可能做出的抉择。

如此一来，歼-11D作为在中国空军当前和未来作战体系中与苏-35定位基本重合的战斗机，就算能于两年内快速定型，并转入批量生产，空军留给它的装备“配额”恐怕也不会多了。

最后，还有一个新动向值得关注。早已停产的歼-11B战机近来很可能已恢复生产。新生产的该型机据推测为小改款，可能换装了有源相控阵雷达（AESA），加装了空中加油受油管，甚至也可能换装了全数字电传飞控系统。

 

[SinoSoldier]

Sure, there are all kinds of ways to rationalize why J-11B production may be occurring -- but the reason this is new, is what does the production of J-11B mean for the production of J-16 and J-15? Because the idea was that J-11B production had ceased and shifted to J-16 and J-15. If they had never stopped J-11B production or if they restarted it, then that would have to cause us to significantly reassess the timeline over the last few years and estimates for SAC flanker airframe distribution.





hmmm

Well if this guy is right, we should be expecting some orders for additional Su-35s in the next year or two. If not, well...

Is the J-15 still in production? I had thought that they have nearly completed an entire airwing already.

 

[Blitzo]

Is the J-15 still in production? I had thought that they have nearly completed an entire airwing already.

I think they have produced just the bare minimum to fit out Liaoning, but I think it would be reasonable to assume production will not have ceased yet, given only 20 aircraft probably isn't enough for operational+training/maintenance purposes, and J-15A has yet to be ready for production.

If we are talking about J-15 production as possibly having stopped or changed in favour of restarting J-11B production then that's another curve ball.


and as for baizhandao... the last paragraph of his post even suggests J-11B has got IFR probe?? I feel like a lot of that post of his reads like his personal speculation

 

[SinoSoldier]

I think they have produced just the bare minimum to fit out Liaoning, but I think it would be reasonable to assume production will not have ceased yet, given only 20 aircraft probably isn't enough for operational+training/maintenance purposes, and J-15A has yet to be ready for production.

If we are talking about J-15 production as possibly having stopped or changed in favour of restarting J-11B production then that's another curve ball.


and as for baizhandao... the last paragraph of his post even suggests J-11B has got IFR probe?? I feel like a lot of that post of his reads like his personal speculation

Fair enough, although I don't think J-15 production will be as a burden as J-16 production, given that the Type 001A & 002 are still some years away from service.

If they can install an AESA on newly-built J-11Bs, what's stopping them from integrating a fueling probe?