China's SCS Strategy Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Fighting over speck on the sea is loose loose preposition. Working together to built prosperity is better choice. Vietnam is wise to choose the latter and contain the dispute and not allowing outsider to built base on her territory

Boom in Tourists Helping Stabilize China-Vietnam Relations
February 08, 2017 1:40 AM

Ralph Jennings
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Chinese tourists ride rickshaws for sightseeing in Hanoi, Vietnam, Dec. 1, 2016.

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TAIPEI —

China has emerged as the top single-country source of tourism for Vietnam over the past year, a status that could help broader relations hurt by a maritime dispute and historical distrust.

The number of Chinese tourists to the neighboring Southeast Asian country reached 250,000 in January, leading other countries with about a quarter of the month’s total. The headcount from China marks a 68 percent increase over January 2016, according to Vietnamese government figures cited by the state media.

Chinese tourists have reshaped the economies of Hong Kong and Taiwan over the past decade, bringing those places closer to Beijing after periods of troubled relations.

“There are some underlying tensions over the East Sea or the South China Sea, but nevertheless Vietnam is a place the Chinese feel comfortable going,” said Frederick Burke, partner in the multinational law firm Baker & McKenzie in Ho Chi Minh City. “It’s accessible. It’s nearby. It’s culturally similar but it’s different so it’s interesting. It’s not expensive and they do cater to the Chinese.”

Overcoming tensions

The upswing in Chinese arrivals caught Vietnam’s attention last year as about 2.2 million reached the country from January through October. Their numbers fell in 2014 after Beijing let a state oil firm position a rig in the disputed South China Sea, touching off deadly anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam.

Beijing and Hanoi bitterly dispute sovereignty over much of the sea, including two chains of tiny islets.

But a sustained influx of tourism could ease people-to-people relations affected by centuries of political rivalry and a border war in 1979 as well as the maritime dispute, analysts say.

The rise in tourism was a bright spot in Sino-Vietnamese business ties toward the end of 2016, said Hoang Viet Phuong, head of institutional research and an investment advisor at SSI Securities Services in Hanoi.

“There is a desire to move away from being a manufacturing hub,” said Louie Nguyen, editor and founder of the news website VietnamAdvisors. “You can see that in the increase in the startup initiatives in terms of tech startups. Even in the film business, the latest King Kong was made in Vietnam. So there (are) various initiatives to move away from manufacturing. Tourism is one of them.”

China is now Vietnam’s top source of tourism, according to the Chinese state-run Xinhua News Agency. Although the Southeast Asian country depends largely on export manufacturing, one in eight jobs is in hospitality, Burke said. Tourism accounted for 6.6 percent of the GDP last year.

Initial boost

A land border crossing and short flights from southern Chinese cities gave tourism an initial boost.

The Vietnamese border province of Quang Ninh, a popular holiday-making spot, was set in January to let Chinese group tourists stay three days visa free. Chinese are partial to coastal scenery, shopping and buffet meals, according to local media.

“We’ve gone to Thailand and Maldives over the past two years, and then we saw some introductory material and thought (Vietnam) would be a bit better, more elemental,” said Ma Wensheng, 48, a Beijing tourist who just spent three days in South Vietnam with family.

He said that while he encountered no anti-Chinese sentiment, not all was perfect.

“The disadvantage is perhaps that tourist development lacks that of Thailand and the Maldives,” Ma said. “Some of the tourist infrastructure isn’t quite as friendly and in some places it’s incomplete. Its advantage is that prices are lower there compared to in the Maldives and so on.”

The number of Chinese tour groups to Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand have largely held steady since those three countries became the first overseas markets in 2003. But the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines MH370 in March 2014 hurt arrivals to Malaysia and Singapore had reported a drop of 24 percent between 2013 and 2014 before it sought to make permits easier for family travel.

Thailand has not seen any long-term decline in arrivals from China, where the number of outbound tourists grew by 20 percent in 2015.

Hong Kong and Taiwan

Large numbers of Chinese travelers have shaped other parts of Asia, as well. For example, arrivals from China brought a boom to the service sector in Hong Kong after a relaxation of rules in 2003. Hong Kong received 45.8 million mainland Chinese visitors in 2015.

Since 2008, Chinese travelers have lifted the service sector in parts of Taiwan near tourist attractions. Their headcount peaked at nearly 3.5 million in 2015.

China does not appear to be pushing tourism in Vietnam for strategic gain, Burke said, but eventually it could ask Chinese travel agencies to scale back if relations sour.

Taiwanese officials have reported declines of 30 to 40 percent in group travel from China since the May inauguration of a president who opposes Beijing’s goal of unifying the two sides politically. The decline has hurt hotels and tour bus operators.

Visits from mainland China to Hong Kong dropped 3 percent in 2015, the year after the anti-Beijing Umbrella Movement protests.

Vietnam understands the risk of a pullback, said Jonathan Spangler, director of the Taipei-based South China Sea Think Tank.

“Beijing has been known to limit outbound tourism as a political tool, but the Vietnamese government understands that such risks are only a small part of its economic relations with China and broader diplomatic and political interests,” he said.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
US think tank CSBA doing a presentation of US forces taking over China's main island in Paracel, its the natural island.

This is a step beyond the much rumored naval blockade (Tillerson) or possibly bombing of China 7 man made islands.

You know what they thinking!
 

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Blackstone

Brigadier
Only two minorities? Elaine Chow and Ben Carson? OOOOO wow, so diversify! Meanwhile the rest of them are whites.:rolleyes::D Ya got me there buddy.;)

So grabbing women's kitty cat and making derogatory statements towards Muslim is okay in your book?
Your arguments are ridiculous. The debate started with you claiming Trump is a racist and when confronted with reasons to the contrary, you then said his Cabinet picks are and I quote "full of white guys thinking like him," and you went on to say Trump couldn't find "a more than qualify minority to be a member of his cabinet and administrations?" You over stated your case in each of the three quotes.

There are plenty of fact-based issues to criticize Trump, and Americans far and wide have done just that, so there's no reason to make false ones.
 

vesicles

Colonel
I am not too sure where should I put this article, but it is quite surprising article (and great) .. mods, feel free to move it

Trump sends letter to President Xi, expresses hope for constructive relationship with China
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Interesting and positive development indeed. I guess Trump was testing the water with China all this time to find their "line in the sand". Now that he has, the actual negotiation/juggling begins...
 

mr.bean

Junior Member
I am not too sure where should I put this article, but it is quite surprising article (and great) .. mods, feel free to move it

Trump sends letter to President Xi, expresses hope for constructive relationship with China
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well President Trump has a great opportunity to develop relations with China is he wishes to do so. he doesn't have to follow Obama's pivot (he's already ditched TPP) and chart his own policy of cooperation. there will be the Belt and Road Initiative Forum in Beijing this May. Putin will be there, Theresa May was invited and probably will be there too. The Chinese would welcome American participation in the OBOR. Donald Trump is at a crossroads now. He can close ranks and collaborate with China and attend the OBOR forum in Beijing or he can fire the first shots of a trade war.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Typical bully boy behaviour. Give him an inch and he will want a mile, but stand up to him and he may show you respect.

Although with Trump, his message and tone changes as rapidly as his moods, so it's wise not to read too much into this.

Wait to judge him on his actions, not words.
 
now I read China upgrades military infrastructure on South China Sea islands, report claims
China is continuing to expand its construction activities in a second group of disputed South China Sea islands, according to a Washington-based think tank on Wednesday.

The report, released Wednesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, says Beijing has undertaken substantial upgrades to its military infrastructure in the Paracel Islands, with the construction of harbors, helipads and a full-fledged helicopter base on several islands in the chain.

Also claimed by Vietnam, the Paracels already play a key role in China’s goal of establishing surveillance and power projection capabilities throughout the South China Sea. Their location, less than 200 miles from the southern Chinese island of Hainan, means that bases and facilities on the Paracels can serve to bridge the distance between Hainan and outposts farther south.

China occupies 20 outposts in the Paracels, of which it gained total control after a series of skirmishes with the former South Vietnam in 1974. The islands lie farther north of the more well-known Spratly Islands, and are referred to as the Xisha Islands by the Chinese.

The latest satellite imagery obtained by CSIS-AMTI think tank show that five of the island outposts contain helipads, with Duncan Island housing a full helicopter base while the Triton, Money and Pattle islands each boast a single helipad to add to helicopter facilities on China’s main Paracel base on Woody Island.

CSIS-AMTI suggests the Duncan Island heliport could play an important role in Chinese anti-submarine warfare efforts in the region, although it is also possible that helicopters based there could be used to service the less well-equipped outposts in the Paracels.

In addition, large harbors have also been expanded or dredged at Palm and Duncan islands as well as Tree Island. Smaller harbors also exist on several smaller Paracel islands, with some having been built only in the last few years. Dredging and construction on several other islands on the Paracels have been observed on the satellite imagery obtained by CSIS-AMTI, suggesting that China intends to carry out more work to add to the facilities in the Paracels.

These new structures are in addition to Woody Island, which is now China’s main base in the Paracels. The airbase and first structures were built in the 1990s, and since then China has “undertaken substantial land reclamation to expand Woody Island and construct new facilities,” according to CSIS-AMTI. This includes an upgraded “air base to include 16 small hangars for combat aircraft as well as four larger hangars."

Defense News believes that the former are climate-controlled to better protect aircraft from the humid, salty environment. The two sheltered harbors on the island have also received substantial upgrades, while HQ-9 and anti-ship cruise missiles have also been deployed on site.
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