Chinese purchase of Su-35

[kwaigonegin]

Actually the big picture geostrategic balance shows that China and Russia need each other to successfully resist a powerful array of countries looking to undermine them, if one falls so will the other. If the two help each other survive they certainly will as the two are very different but have complementary strengths and weaknesses. If the two can build enough trust to share and help each other thrive they stand a high chance of succeeding but they appear to continue keeping each other at arm's length.

The question is will the geostrategic balance shift with a Trump presidency? I'm far from an expert but I think all indications show a much warmer ties in US/Russian relations with Trump than it is with Obama.

The question is assuming such 'bond' materlizes will it negatively affect or strain Russian/china ties or alienate China?

That phone call from Taiwanese PM to Trump is already pissing off China and if Trump idoubles down on the SCS while at the same time buddy buddy with Putin, I can see China feeling like the 3rd wheel.

 

[weig2000]

It made sense when the deal was first formalized many many moons ago however for whatever reason that caused the delays, the less crucial it became for the buyer.
I think this is a classic case of over promised and underdeliver right from the start however I think there is a still a chance of it going through if the 2 parties make concessions to push it through.
China doesn't really need the 35s as much as a few years ago but if they could get it for a couple tons of rabbit meat and chickens why not.

We don't really know what's going on behind the scene, but I prefer simple explanations. The Chinese has been interested in Su-35 because it's been arguably the best iteration currently in the Flank family. They also suit China's needs well. SAC has been woefully slow in developing/producing J-16, J-15 and J-11D. So the Chinese is naturally interested in Su-35, for capability, availability, and maybe some technologies. The Russians are trying to get the best deal of it, given that Su-35 (and S-400) are one of the few defense systems out there that the Chinese are still interested. Besides, they're also concerned about the IP, based on the experience of Su-27.

The Chinese are interested, but not desperate. So the negotiation drags on, quite unlike the Su-27 deal a quarter century ago when China was desperate to buy and Russia eager to sell. And you're right, if this saga continues, the value of this deal for China diminishes. It might eventually die or both sides will have make a determination to push it through.

This is not unprecedented in Russia-China relationship. The $400 billion mega gas deal signed in 2014 between Russia and China was another example. It had been going on-again, off-again for over a decade with the two sides negotiating on routes, pricing and other terms. The final push came after Russia was sanctioned by the West. The deal was hail as opening a new era of Russia-China strategic partnership. Then came the collapse of the energy price, and value of the deal is questionable ...

 

[A.Man]

This is an old Chinse fighter:

 

[Air Force Brat]

This is an old Chinse fighter:

View attachment 34368

We could just call it a "classic 4 Gen" and yes, in the world of 2016, that is an "OLD Fighter",,, I really thought you were going to show us some "Grizzled OLD Dude with a long fighting stick"??

So it does bring up the question, what is a proper-mix of 5Gen-4Gen aircraft, the 5Gens with inter-operability with 4Gens will def bring some new life into those 4Gens!

 

[Pmichael]

We don't really know what's going on behind the scene, but I prefer simple explanations. The Chinese has been interested in Su-35 because it's been arguably the best iteration currently in the Flank family. They also suit China's needs well. SAC has been woefully slow in developing/producing J-16, J-15 and J-11D. So the Chinese is naturally interested in Su-35, for capability, availability, and maybe some technologies. The Russians are trying to get the best deal of it, given that Su-35 (and S-400) are one of the few defense systems out there that the Chinese are still interested. Besides, they're also concerned about the IP, based on the experience of Su-27.

The Chinese are interested, but not desperate. So the negotiation drags on, quite unlike the Su-27 deal a quarter century ago when China was desperate to buy and Russia eager to sell. And you're right, if this saga continues, the value of this deal for China diminishes. It might eventually die or both sides will have make a determination to push it through.

This is not unprecedented in Russia-China relationship. The $400 billion mega gas deal signed in 2014 between Russia and China was another example. It had been going on-again, off-again for over a decade with the two sides negotiating on routes, pricing and other terms. The final push came after Russia was sanctioned by the West. The deal was hail as opening a new era of Russia-China strategic partnership. Then came the collapse of the energy price, and value of the deal is questionable ...

If China is really interested in the Su-35 as asset for frontline use then the deal wouldn't be just 24 aircraft over such a long time frame as rumored.
Even ignoring stuff like dealing with Russian black boxes and weapons.

But the next weeks will tell if there are Su-35 aircraft are coming for real.

 

[weig2000]

If China is really interested in the Su-35 as asset for frontline use then the deal wouldn't be just 24 aircraft over such a long time frame as rumored.
Even ignoring stuff like dealing with Russian black boxes and weapons.

But the next weeks will tell if there are Su-35 aircraft are coming for real.

Su-35 would be just supplementary to Chinese Flankers (J-11B, J-16 , J-11D). They're not meant to be primary frontline aircraft. As I said, and I'm sure everyone knows, Su-35 would not be what Su-27 was to China 25 years ago. As for the exact number, I'm sure PLAAF has better handle on that. There is no need for us to argue whether 24, 36 or 48 makes most sense. They would be a small fraction of the Flanker fleet family regardless.

 

[Air Force Brat]

too much self praise my friend, Su-35 has something that still you can not see, it does supercruise, it is not a maybe, it is a fact, PAKFA does supercruise too, but 117 is not the most advanced engine in the world, already type 30 is in the bench test.

Russia passed all the structural technology of Su-27, J-11 is not more than a cloned aircraft built upon Russian technology, you degree of anti-christian Orthodox bias is great did you forget your Russian Rivals under putin have more pro-christian values than your own nation?


Today Su-35 has a radar of 400km. do you understand that to make a radar of such power you need engines generating such voltage? Al-31 will need to generate very large amounts of electricity and have extra batteries plus circuits that lose less energy in heat to reach Su-35`s irbis power.

Do you think i believe J-11 even with AESA can reach 400km? be my guest, it will need lots of batteries and electricity generators and Radar emitters that heat up much much less than even American circuits or french circuits on F-22, F-35 and Rafale, be my guest, but in vilified Russian`s putin the orthodox church plays a role to reduce abortion and with success.

Please forgive my off topic gentlemen, I promise I will make my point and bring it back to SU-35!

B787 you are throwing handfuls of dust in the air Bruda, I love the Flanker, Russian or Chinese, I simply stated for the record, that in my aviation oriented personal opinion, the Chinese Flanker does indeed make use of far more composites materials than does the Russian Flanker. It is also my considered opinion that "structurally" the Chinese Flanker has a much tighter tolerances and better fit and finish.

Furthermore, since the Chinese Flanker is using Russian engines of a very similar nature, without OVT, that it well may have nearly as much thrust as the SU-35, and it will require less maintenance and fusing than the SU-35 with OVT, which operates in a very "hostile environment".

Now, the J-20 uses far more composites, and has a much cleaner composite skin than does the PAK-FA, especially at the forward fuselage/wing intake juncture!

The reason for that is two fold, but very simple,,,,,

1. The Chinese take more time and pride in their workmanship in general!

2. The Chinese build MILLIONS upon Millions of Bicycle Frames, Carbon Fiber Wheel-sets, seat posts and stems for the bicycle industry, very picky, picky people who only want the best.

Those millions of bicycles feature, steel, aluminum, titanium, and carbon fiber in every configuration, with seamless joints and lifetime warranties..... so the Chinese have the expertise to manufacture even high end bicycle equipment for the likes of Pinarello, Colnago, Cannondale, and Trek, just to name a few.....

They also manufacture aftermarket car parts, hoods, deck lids, hood scoops, spoilers etc, etc for equally picky car people.

In other words they get lots and lots of practice building all those things,

 

[b787]

Please forgive my off topic gentlemen, I promise I will make my point and bring it back to SU-35!

B787 you are throwing handfuls of dust in the air Bruda, I love the Flanker, Russian or Chinese, I simply stated for the record, that in my aviation oriented personal opinion, the Chinese Flanker does indeed make use of far more composites materials than does the Russian Flanker. It is also my considered opinion that "structurally" the Chinese Flanker has a much tighter tolerances and better fit and finish.

Furthermore, since the Chinese Flanker is using Russian engines of a very similar nature, without OVT, that it well may have nearly as much thrust as the SU-35, and it will require less maintenance and fusing than the SU-35 with OVT, which operates in a very "hostile environment".

Now, the J-20 uses far more composites, and has a much cleaner composite skin than does the PAK-FA, especially at the forward fuselage/wing intake juncture!

,

True China builds lots of products, many of them of really shoddy quality, you forget the Russia has built and exported hundreds of Su-27s, that the Su-27 family has different generations, a Su-27 built in 1986 is not the same built in 2016.

Our Chinese colleges here are saying China does not need the Su-35, but let us go J-11 is not a Chinese product but a Russian license of Su-27 with some enhancements, but Russia has not been idle, the Chinese claimed they improved the Al-31 service life, but in that same period Russia built the Al-31F-M2/3 variants, which are much better than any Chinese improvement, in fact they boast about WS-10 but still 117S is a much more modern engine and China still buys Al-31s.

Many Chinese programs have Ukrainian Russian finger prints, Y-20 for example has direct Antonov, Assistance, same ARJ-21, L-15 and many Chinese programs.

The Su-35 is a great enhancement to the J-11 fleet, here our colleges minimize the fact Su-35 supercruises, but basically it means less fuel spent so it means longer range add Su-35 carries more fuel internally, (which means new internal structures and enhanced avionics) means Su-35 enhances power projection over any J-11.
Even J-20 with inferior engines can not compete, regardless you say it is stealthy, J-20 has not better engines, it is almost as large as a Su-35 and at least as heavy, so it has no better range.

So i will put it simple, 117S gives to China two advantages longer range and higher speed on Flanker platforms.

Russia is not about charity, China pays or no deal, Russia needs money, and Su-35 is a very advanced weapon, is 5th generation subsystems on a 4th generation fuselage, J-20 is a 5th generation fuselage but lacks the most important 5th generation thing, without it, no supercruise, no STOL, no super maneuverability, and no post stall regardless of what you say without TVC nozzles there is no credible post stall handling, so in few words the Su-35 is a gift Russia is not willing to sell without the most money they can get, Russia knows China eventually will get the technology embedded in 117S, but for them they will make sure they take more time and they get the most money, so China and Russia are negotiating and for that reason it has taken long

 

[SamuraiBlue]

Air Force Brat
Carbon fiber composite used for bicycle and the ones used for airplanes are two different animals. Japan I believe supplies around 80% of high quality CFC(based on different diameter of thread) utilized for airplanes in which the material is banned from being exported without a government issued license and none had been issued to export to PRC to my knowledge.

 

[vincent]

SB, do some research first

A production line for T800 capable of producing over one thousand ton a year went online in May

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2016-05-30 10:12:15

5月26日，中国玻璃纤维复合材料信息网发表消息，国内主要碳纤维原丝生产厂商之一，中复神鹰碳纤维公司千吨级T800原丝生产线投产。据报道，该生产线是在2012年投产的T700碳纤维生产线基础上改造而来。T800碳纤维是目前国际上能实现量产的最高强度碳纤维，在航空航天等领域有广阔应用前景。目前，该碳纤维仍属对华禁运产品。此前，国内有一些企业实现了T800碳纤维的小规模生产，例如江苏航科公司，在2012年建成国内首条T800生产线，年生产规模为25吨。

据美国《防务新闻》周刊网站报道，2014年美国逮捕一名中国商人马立松（音译：Lisong Ma），当时指控他的罪名是向中国走私“武器级”碳纤维，其牌号为T800-HB12000-50B。当时这名商人试图从美国购买5吨T800碳纤维并运往上海，结果与他接洽并提供了部分样品的美国“商人”实际上是联邦调查局特工假扮的。

以下为中复神鹰公司发布的新闻稿：

千吨级T800原丝线投产仪式25日在江苏省连云港市中复神鹰碳纤维有限公司原丝六号线举行。中国建材董事长宋志平出席千吨级T800原丝线投产仪式并致辞。参加此次投产仪式还有应邀前来的中船重工、北汽集团、国泰君安、中信建设等投资公司领导和日本JAT，上海华筝等碳纤维复合材料公司的客户代表。

此次投产仪式标志着中复碳纤维有限公司实现了由百吨级T800原丝线向千吨级T800原丝线跨越，实现T800原丝的产业化，使公司的生产迈向了一个新台阶，并继续扮演着中国碳纤维行业领头羊的角色

中国建材董事长宋志平在投产仪式上致辞中，肯定了中复神鹰碳纤维有限公司十年来的发展和对中国碳纤维事业的贡献，在中国经济结构转型期，千吨级T800原丝的投产是中复碳纤维也在不断向中高端转型转折点；同时勉励我们要积极的向国际水平看起，攻坚克难早日突破T1000的技术难关，并强调中国建材会一如既往的支持中复神鹰碳纤维的发展，鼓励中复碳纤维放心的做，大胆的做，并提出了实现十万吨级碳纤维的宏伟目标。还对张国良董事长在中复碳纤维公司生产上和管理上的贡献给予了高度的评价。

宋志平董事长按下原丝六号线T700转化T800的开启按钮，伴随着电机运转，烘干机的喧闹，蒸牵机的汽鸣，操作员工在工作岗位上开始了忙碌的工作，原丝六号线第一根T800原丝顺利的下线，这标志着千吨级T800原丝线顺利的投产，标志着中复碳纤维实现了千吨级T800原丝的产业化，成为中复碳纤维历史上浓墨重彩的一笔。中复神鹰碳纤维有限公司做中国碳纤维行业的领头人在不断的种好自己的田，种好属于碳纤维的田。做实业，就像种田，从来都是一份耕耘一份收获，需要种田人悉心的养护，种碳纤维这种高新技术这块田更是困难，就需要洒下更多的汗水。碳纤维作为军敏材料，国外技术不会给，必须原创，关键设备也是国外封锁，必须依靠自己，同时还要琢磨工艺的稳定性，就是在这种情况下，中复神鹰碳纤维实现了T800的技术突破，自己承担了技术研究与设备研发的工作，其研发技术水平达到国内领先，部分性能指标超过国外同类产品水平，可完全替代进口。新的原丝生产线所有的核心设备和技术都是自主研发，实现了国产化，现在中复神鹰碳纤维原丝全部采用干喷湿纺技术，在国内是首屈一指的。


在设备和工艺技术的保证的前提下，中复碳纤维的产品也得到市场的认可，2014-2015年基本上100%销售T700的产品，随着千吨级T800的原丝的顺利投产，企业今年将计划生产2200吨的碳纤维以满足市场的需求。在中国现在经济下行的压力下，中复神鹰仍在第一季度给自己交了份满意的答卷，第一季度企业销售量同比实现翻番，同时正在不断扩大的自己的国内市场占有率，现在国内的市场占有率和产能仍为第一；经营状况较同期有了较大提升；企业继续在建筑加固布和体育领域等应用行业做好外，公司意识到国内的供给侧与需求侧的结构性矛盾加剧，基于低成本的数量扩张型道路会越来越难以适应市场变化，客户不是不需要碳丝，而是需要高品质高质量的碳丝，对此公司积极的实施自己供给侧改革，将自己的产品不断的向高端应用延伸，不断扩大自己的产品在汽车、能源和航天航空等领域地使用。

中复碳纤维有限公司的发展当然离不开国家政府，各界社会组织支持和鼓励，同时各个用户对公司的批评建议和对产品肯定是公司不断发展的动力，公司不断的将更好更优质更全面产品推向市场，以满足广大客户的需求。

“亦余心之所向，虽九死其尤未悔”是中复神鹰碳纤维的气概和气魄，作为中国碳纤维行业的排头兵，“走技术路线”的脚步永远不会停下，将会秉承“工匠精神”种好自己田，继续攻精心谋划下苦功夫，精心打造出中国的碳纤维，肩负其做好碳纤维的国家责任。