China's SCS Strategy Thread

Zool

Junior Member
Likely attempt at reciprocity by Taiwan for China putting pressure on Singapore - Taiwan military relations and exercises. The call seemed to be initiated at the request of Tsai.

I doubt anything else will come of this. Chinese FM was very smart in putting the blame on Taiwan and removing the possibility of this being used as a wedge issue between China and the Trump Admin before they take office and formulate policy.
 
Likely attempt at reciprocity by Taiwan for China putting pressure on Singapore - Taiwan military relations and exercises. The call seemed to be initiated at the request of Tsai.

I doubt anything else will come of this. Chinese FM was very smart in putting the blame on Taiwan and removing the possibility of this being used as a wedge issue between China and the Trump Admin before they take office and formulate policy.

Not quite as simple.


The Taiwanese government suggested some planning went into the call. "Of course both sides agreed ahead of time before making contact," Alex Huan, a spokesman for Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen,

According to the Taipei Times, the call was arranged by Trump's Taiwan-friendly campaign staff after his aides briefed him on issues regarding Taiwan and the situation in the Taiwan Strait

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supercat

Major
Not quite as simple.

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This kind of calls are almost always prearranged, it does not mean much. The call itself lasted about only 10 minutes. The U.S. government also reiterated after the phone call that there was no change in the one-China policy. If Tsai attempted to drive a wedge into the China-U.S. relationship using this phone call, she probably failed.

Note that Trump also said something to the president of Pakistan that would surely make India unhappy on the surface. But it does not mean that there will be drastic changes in America's policies toward Pakistan and India.

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The phone conversation on Friday between the US President-elect and
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is the first such contact by an American president or president-elect since Jimmy Carter switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, acknowledging that the island forms part of China. It was a 10-minute phone call and it fuelled speculation that Trump risked angering China.


But it hasn’t.
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brushed it aside as a “petty action” by Taiwan (although such contacts are usually pre-planned and mutually agreed.) Wang said, “I believe the call will not change the one-China policy the US has been observing over many years.”


China is sizing up the ‘new normal’: Trump is not bound by past US practices and conventions and is open to shifting major pivots in foreign policies if that is in American interests. Of course, it introduces an element of new fluidity. Some of China’s potential friends and allies might feel like returning as satellites in the American orbit. When Trump calls Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif a “great guy” or gets into a “very engaging, animated” conversation with
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, they feel elated. Sharif promptly deputed a key aide to rush to the US on a special assignment to contact Trump’s aides. Duterte invited Trump to attend the East Asia Summit in Manila next year – and says that if Trump could make it, “that would be great for our country”.


Indeed, China too is curious about the ‘new normal’ and a great opportunity came its way. Henry Kissinger who met Trump ten days ago arrived in Beijing in the weekend. President Xi Jinping spent 90 minutes with Kissinger on Friday in the Great Hall of the People. Xi reportedly said, “Dr Kissinger, your visit is very timely, and we look forward to hearing your views on China-US relations going forward. We are watching the situation very closely. Now is a period of transition.”


Xinhua reported that Kissinger conveyed to Xi that it is the expectation of the incoming Trump administration ‘to facilitate sustained, stable and better growth’ of US-China relations. In turn, Xi held out the assurance that China ‘will work closely with the US at a new starting point to maintain the smooth transition of ties and stable growth’. Xi stressed the importance of close high-level exchanges, ‘win-win economic and trade ties’ and expansion of ‘substantial cooperation in all areas’ and a strengthening of ‘coordination on major global and regional issues.’


What is Kissinger’s assessment of the Trump presidency? Soon after his call on Trump in New York on November 17, in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, Kissinger described Trump as “a determined president-elect who is making the transition from being a campaigner to being a national strategist and is trying to inform himself on the various aspects of the current situation.”

Kissinger qualified that the “most unique” thing about Trump is that “He has absolutely no baggage. He has no application to any particular group because he has become a President on the basis of his own strategy and a program he put before the American public that his competitors had not presented. So that is a unique situation.”


Kissinger pointed out that globalization has winners and losers and “the losers were bound to express themselves in some kind of political reaction.” Therefore, he said, “In my view in the present situation, one should not insist on nailing him (Trump) into positions that he had taken in the campaign on which he doesn’t insist. If he insists on them, then of course disagreements will become expressed. But if he develops another program and leaves the question open on what he said in the campaign, one should now make that the desired development.”

Simply put, some flip-flops become unavoidable. But then, “I think we should give him (Trump) an opportunity to develop the positive objectives that he may have, and to discuss those.” Looking ahead, Trump “did seem to have a strategy to which he’d stick regardless of the pressures that came on him.”


Trump’s task ahead is to make that strategy “sustainable” by getting it to meet the concerns that had appeared on the campaign trail, while at the same time link it to “some of the main themes” of US foreign policy in the post-World War II period, “the freedom and peace of the world”. Kissinger drew the bottom line: “This ultimate mission has to be preserved” – active engagement globally – although it could be “in a different manner and in a different context and in, perhaps, a less assertive manner than has been the case in previous periods.”


Xi seemed pleased with the conversation with Kissinger. Read the Xinhua dispatch on their meeting
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.



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stibyssip

New Member
Trump, unlike Clinton, is not committed toward expanding American world hegemony under a liberal-democratic banner. But given the ideology and culture of US politics, but there is a danger in appearing soft on China. Right now he appears soft on Russia to many, and it's used as ammunition against him.

Who knows, maybe he can pull off a nuanced rapprochement with China on strategic affairs. From the tone of Chinese and Russian comments on his win so far, concession and compromise on the geopolitical front seems like a plausible thing to expect from the Trump presidency. How the American public/establishment will perceive it is more uncertain, but I predict most Americans simply won't have the attention spans, even if his opponents try to paint him as giving way to American strategic rivals... not when the boss from The Apprentice is in the White House :D
 
Yesterday at 8:39 AM
at first I noted at gazeta.ru
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China blames Taiwan for president's 'petty' phone call with Trump
source is Reuters (dated Sat Dec 3, 2016 | 2:25am EST)
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related:
Trump, Taiwan and China: Why one phone call matters so much
The President-elect dismisses his exit from diplomatic norms, but what impact will it have on relations with China?

It is difficult to overstate just how seriously China takes the issue of Taiwan.

As far as the government in Beijing is concerned, the island is an inviolable part of its sovereign territory, and its ultimate reunification is non-negotiable.

It has never renounced the possibility of using force to do so.

The issue has been the subject of decades of delicate diplomacy in Washington.

When Mao Zedong's Communists came to power in 1949, declaring the foundation of the modern People's Republic of China (PRC), the defeated Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, under Chiang Kai-shek, fled across the water to Taiwan.

For the next two decades the United States continued to recognise his administration on Taiwan, referred to as the Republic of China, as the legitimate government of China, until the United Nations switched recognition to Beijing and the PRC in 1971.

President Jimmy Carter followed suit and shifted formal US relations to Beijing from Taipei in 1979.

The agreement included what became known as the "One China" policy, where the US government acknowledged Beijing's position, "that there is but one China, and Taiwan is part of China".

In 1992, Taipei and Beijing also agreed that there was only "one China" - agreeing to disagree on which was the legitimate government of it.

No US President, or President-elect has spoken to a Taiwanese leader since 1979, at least not that either side has publicly admitted, and despite unofficial ties and billions of dollars of "defensive" arms sales, Washington does not officially recognise Taiwan as an independent state.

Enter Donald Trump.

"The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency. Thank you!" the President-elect tweeted.

Batting away the storm this comment provoked, he continued, apparently unabashed: "Interesting how the US sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call."

China's foreign ministry has already
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urging cautious and proper handling of the Taiwan issue, in order to avoid disturbance to Sino-US relations.

Privately, there will be real concerns as to where all this is heading.

One theory is that this is just Donald Trump being Donald Trump - bringing the freewheeling, throw-the-Washington-playbook-out-the-window style of his candidacy to his presidency.

His willingness to reject conventional wisdom, and the supposed liberal elite, was a powerful plank of his popular appeal after all.

But while that might work well on the campaign trail, it's hard to see how this scales up to the successful running of a country.

Earlier on Friday, for instance, Mr Trump also spoke to the Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte, who reported "a good rapport" and said the President-elect had wished him "success" with his anti-drugs campaign - this is the "campaign" in which more than 4,000 people have been shot dead, in months of extrajudicial killings.

The other, more worrying possibility for China, is that this was no spontaneous, enthusiastic blunder - that Donald Trump knows exactly what he is doing - and that he is indicating the start of a more significant shift in US-China, and US-Taiwan relations.

The Asia team he has assembled so far includes some pretty hawkish voices on China - from the economist Peter Navarro, author of "Death by China", to Michael Pillsbury, who's latest book purports to uncover "China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower."

If this is Commander-in-Chief Donald Trump embarking on a strategic shift that is one thing, but at this level words and signals matter, and the President-elect's emerging approach to international diplomacy is unnerving more than just Chinese officials.

"It's Trump's right to shift policy, alliances, strategy," Chris Murphy, a democratic senator on the US senate foreign relations committee tweeted.

" What has happened in the last 48 hours is not a shift. These are major pivots in foreign policy without any plan. That's how wars start."
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advill

Junior Member
It is and always be a ONE CHINA POLICY regardless of distractions at times by "silly bergers" who like to cause serious problems, not their own but for the Chinese people. "Sincerity and Truth are the basis of every virtue" (Confucius 551-479 B.C.)
 

flyzies

Junior Member
Going by China's reaction, Beijing took David Cameron meeting the Dala Lama more seriously than this phone call. Those "solemn representations" were lodged because that was the normal thing to do, and was expected by everyone.
Wang Yi's "petty trick" comment was a clever response, as not only does it put all the blame on Taiwan, it makes clear how China can easily brush aside Taiwan's attempts to build momentum internationally.
 

Lethe

Captain
It is likely that Trump is laying the foundation for future provocations towards China. The Chinese response to this first provocation was sensible, and should be a model for future responses.

It is the interests of the American government and the governments of America's allies to force a confrontation with China whilst they are still in a position to prevail in such a confrontation. Conversely, it is in China's interest to avoid any such confrontation until such time as it can prevail, which is certainly not within the next decade. This may require accepting various humiliations in the interim. At the most extreme, a repeat of 1996 cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, Beijing should not lose sight of the bigger picture. Make no mistake, there are many within the American foreign policy and military establishments who are spoiling for a fight with China. Do not under any circumstances give it to them.
 

LesAdieux

Junior Member
It is likely that Trump is laying the foundation for future provocations towards China. The Chinese response to this first provocation was sensible, and should be a model for future responses.

It is the interests of the American government and the governments of America's allies to force a confrontation with China whilst they are still in a position to prevail in such a confrontation. Conversely, it is in China's interest to avoid any such confrontation until such time as it can prevail, which is certainly not within the next decade. This may require accepting various humiliations in the interim. At the most extreme, a repeat of 1996 cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, Beijing should not lose sight of the bigger picture. Make no mistake, there are many within the American foreign policy and military establishments who are spoiling for a fight with China. Do not under any circumstances give it to them.

Oh, what a coward! the US with its UN allies couldn't even prevail in korea 60 years ago, how can they prevail today?

see that 10 DF21 launches in one go, and read that :" take out any US bases at any time!“ that's actually from an official source, that's how China is going to respond.
 
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