ISIS/ISIL conflict in Syria/Iraq (No OpEd, No Politics)

[Jura The idiot]

Saturday at 8:50 AM

later I thought I wouldn't be checking that source anymore, but now I did, ...

... and now again

Should I believe #1?

 

[SampanViking]

Ambassador Bhadrakumar give on his blog,

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, on June 19 an interpretation of the importance of the attack on the Al-Tanf base.

There has been a lot of talk about this agreement swimming around the net for the last few months. You do get the sense that this has been a game that the Russians have been obliged to play.
Having done so, they have quietly neutralised a diplomatic argument designed to put them off balance and now I note that substantive bombing of Western Alleppo has resumed.

Read this morning incidently, that the New Syrian Army has captured a desert checkpoint between Syria and Iraq from ISIS

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 9:35 PM

... the Desert Group
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-375#post-400600
in "Thawrah Oil Fields" (presumably) today, about ten kilometers south to Tabqa:

... and was repelled, then from "Sfaiyeh Oil Field":

and it's according just to pro-Government sources ... I don't want to sound alarming, but the Government, after two weeks of "building this protrusion" from Ithriya, is loosing the initiative

EDIT
feel free to prove me wrong

 

[SampanViking]

Yesterday at 9:35 PM

... and was repelled, then from "Sfaiyeh Oil Field":

and it's according just to pro-Government sources ... I don't want to sound alarming, but the Government, after two weeks of "building this protrusion" from Ithriya, is loosing the initiative

EDIT
feel free to prove me wrong

Well I would assume that part of the reason of sending an Armoured/Mechanised Division on this campaign would to be to exploit its superior mobility and fire power and that before the Air Support is taken into account.

We know that they went in, we know that they came back out and the latest I heard is that they are going back in again.
The trouble of course is that if you advertise through the media for weeks, where it is you are going, you should hardly be surprised if the other side take notice and congregate to meet you.

I would not be surprised to learn that the SAA are employing some heavy hit and run attacks on ISIS to mess them up and minimise their own casualties. It is the advantage they have and makes sense to exploit it.
We do of course only have the media account for where precisely they are hitting, while I suspect that the truth is that they could be hitting multiple targets at any point in the general vicinity around/between the two main roads.

I think is the SAA were to simply just dig in, then yes they would risk losing the initiative.

 

[Jura The idiot]

... the Air Support is taken into account.

...

I'll ask you for the second (and last time
Friday at 6:25 PM

... can you post a video of Russian Close Air Support?

I have seen only bombings by Russian/Syrian aircraft of infrastructure, villages, towns (what's then presented as "ISIL command post" etc.), as of reportedly Tabqa today:

my point is such a bombardment doesn't stop ISIL reinforcements from arriving to fight the Government ...

... as the only I saw is:
Apr 25, 2016

now I watched twice the recent vid (which looks, or is staged to look, spontaneously filmed) of "Night Hunters" (by the way you can check
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/russian-military-news-reports-data-etc.t1545/page-335#post-396952
in Syrian desert:

and to me it illustrated the difficulties of controlling the attack (probably a spotter helicopter present (the one which appears right at the beginning of the vid); friendly positions marked) even if there's hardly any resistance on the ground

you know, in all that talking about Russian/Syrian Air Force, I would've hoped the Desert Group
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-375#post-400600
had been able to use helicopters for MEDEVAC ... anyway it's now retreating, which was conceded by pro-Government "miladvisor" most recently:

(it's

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)
​

and, considering the OPFOR, I hope the retreat is going on in an organized way! now "Cassad"

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quotes a Russian journalist withing the group, who says recently ISIL counterattacked at the moment when MLRS had found themselves at front position of the Government formation, and had to commence direct fire from like one mile distance (?!)

 

[delft]

From RT just now:

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• Yesterday 18:45 GMT
  ‘We’re losing patience’: Russian General Staff head on situation in Syria
  “It is we, not the Americans, who are losing patience in regard to the situation in Syria,” the head of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, told journalists, commenting on the recent US statements, accusing Russia of “unprofessional” use of the bilateral communication channels and warning that Washington’s patience was “wearing thin.”“We are fulfilling our commitments… concerning the ceasefire and national reconciliation in Syria in full,” the general said adding that Russia has been informing the US about the Islamic State (IS, former ISIS/ISIL) and Al-Nusra Front positions, while the US still cannot distinguish between the positions of the opposition and terrorists. “However, it cannot last forever,” the general stressed.

 

[Jura The idiot]

related to the activity of Kurds in/around

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some time ago
Jun 8, 2016

... it'll be interesting to see then if they

• "lay siege" to avoid urban combat https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/is...no-oped-no-policis.t6913/page-375#post-400695 and rush toward Al-Bab; or
• try to clear the town from ISIL

and now I tried to take a closer look at what had actually happened recently; according to sources in Twitter (I won't quote them, so if you think I'm making it up stop reading) ISIL began counter-strikes

1. right from the city ("to alleviate the pressure" I guess), and
2. in the area south to Manbij ("to threaten the supply route through
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   " I guess):
   
   (it's
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   )

But I have a difficulty to "align" the above map to my own (which I created mainly to see the scale; outskirts of Manbij are in top-left corner, Tishrin Dam in bottom-right corner):

so I just quickly identified "Jubb al Qatashli" as approximately the place from where the ISIL attack started according to the map found in Twitter, and "Markaz Abu Qalqal" as the place where Kurds are "for sure", with the action going on in between ... if it turns out to be important, I'll update

 

[Jura The idiot]

Yesterday at 12:09 PM

Saturday at 6:17 PM

... and most recently the Kremlin became coy about incendiary cluster munition
РБК-250 ЗАБ-2,5
(

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in short: ЗАБ as in зажигательная (incendiary) авиабомба; РБК in my post I quote above):

1. in the original video (from the visit to the Latakia Airbase this weekend) in the bottom-left corner
   
   saved by people BUT
2. missing in the current version of the video (the cut around 00:40):

in case anybody cared, here's what happens when they hit:

and here's when they're hitting:

 

[Jura The idiot]

now I read this again:

...

Yesterdays map showed pretty much what I expected to see, a split north and east at the crossroads as a prelude to taking the whole "block" of territory between the roads.
The solid green is going to be the position of the main column while the hatched area showing the fire zone and the operational areas for flanking units etc.
ISIS have been caught on the hop and must be pouring in any reinforcements they can find and trying to fortify these previously remote and quiet areas.
I would not be surprised if the SAA have found a hole in the above and are quietly sending a force through it.

I guess we should learn in the very near future.

as there have been several hundreds Government Soldiers KIA since then during the ISIL counter-strike, according to the Russian journalist who was lucky to leave shortly before it started (automatic translation should work):

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related blog by "Cassad"

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contains pictures of lost Government armor etc.

EDIT
delft look at the northern flank in the map above

 

[delft]

I know I have but a slight insight in the tactical situation but I see many villages to the north. I also see that Google maps has a different valuation of the importance of the roads.
On the earth pictures I see signs of old streams just I remember seeing them when flying over Czechoslovakia half a century ago in an Il-14 so flying rather low. I suppose that land is used not for crops but for keeping animals.
So I suppose the villages will be small but still tactically significant.