cool I'll try to keep this "Amateurish Civil War Journal" going; it seems right now the most important development is
- the ongoing battle
- and the push against with the goal to cut "M5" road supplying anti-Assad bulge in Western Aleppo:
Is it?
Looking at today's map against the 30th, you can clearly see that the ISIS counter offensive has lost its impetus and is now being pushed back. On the 27th, ISIS were close to taking Al-Safirah but have now been forced in full retreat. One can only guess at the losses they have suffered from the air in the process.
Likewise, the SAA thrust towads the Airbase has very nearly broken through, while ISIS attacks through Jabbul also look to have ground to a halt and do look vulnerable to further attrition.
I suspect that my earlier guess about drawing the fighters out of their bunkers was not to far off the truth.
Prophesy time then.
I expect the SAA to breakthrough to Kuwelress Airbase within days and to then sweep around to the North and East securing a wide swathe of territory; defined by the main roads to secure their further holdings to the East of the City. The ultimate aim will surely be to close the door and create a cauldron for those forces inside Aleppo. It is moot as to whether they will do this by pushing from the ground they already hold or by sweeping my predicted flanking action all around the city to push West and South and cut of the City Centre that way.
Once achieved I can see a second sweep the South to move West and North to also link up and insulate the city with deep territory.
The big question though is the strategic value of the Airbase, assuming it is relieved by the SAA advance. I can see it as a forward base for Russian Helicopters, but would there be any value to position Fixed Wing Aircraft there? Or would it simply make a very good Fire Base to help with the flanking sweep get under way. Would Russia defend with its own ground troops and Artillery?
