Between 1991 and 2011, the USN commissioned 3 Arleigh Burke per year. I am wondering when the Chinese could reach this production rate with regards to 052D. In fact, if the Chinese were to "catch up" with the U.S. and Japan, the current rate of DDG commissioning is simply far from enough.
China doesn't necessarily have to catch up with USN burke commissioning rates; it just needs to catch up with JMSDF and USN pacific fleet in terms of total surface combatant number/capability, if that is what you're getting at.
And in that sense, PLAN is well on its way in having more aegis type surface combatants than JMSDF by 2020 and even if each 052D may not have as many VLS as a Kongo or Atago the discrepancy in overall capability is quite present; not to mention the presence of supporting 054As whose air defence capabilities are quite modern as well.
But for PLAN to be fully comfortable in surface combatants vis a vis JMSDF and USN's pacific fleet, imho, a 48 DDG and 48 FFG strong fleet should probably be a long term goal that will provide parity in conjunction with supporting ships and land based air power and missile assets.
What's the total 052D China plan to built? My feeling at least 12, 4 for each North, South & East sea fleet as appropriate for a regional power
Yes, I think 12 is a minimum.
By the time all is said and done, each fleet will have a destroyer flotilla with the DDG component made up fully of 4 052Ds while ESF will have also have a destroyer flotilla with four 052Cs, and SSF having the original 2 052Cs and 052Bs.
Not too shabby given many smaller navies only have 3 or 4 aegis type ships as their primary capital ships, while PLAN will have that same capability in its own singledestroyer flotilla.
Of course, the USN's destroyer squadrons also tend to have six or so burkes which are very powerful units, but PLAN destroyer flotillas also have four FFGs to complement the primary four DDGs.
The question for PLAN is how much bigger they're looking to expand their destroyer flotilla, either in flotilla size or flotilla number. Because after all the 052Ds are commissioned by about 2020, the PLAN will have 16 052C/Ds, 2 052Bs, 4 Sovremennys, 2 052s, 2 051Cs, 1 051B, (assuming none of the 052s or 051B are replaced given they are still relatively young ships), and that is some 24-25 ships -- enough to fully "modernize" the DDG components of all six of the PLAN's destroyer flotilla without having to build more ships for at least another decade or more.
But obviously the PLAN are looking to build 055, and possibly more 052Ds as well so that inevitably raises the question -- where will they go? Will the PLAN retire older 052s, 051B, 051Cs, and Sovs early? Doubtful. Will the PLAN instead expand their total DDG/surface combatant number? That seems likely to me, but how large will they go?
And also, will they increase their FFG number as well? 24 054As are a very good number and a competent and flexible capability, but are PLAN happy with 054As enough that they won't pursue a new FFG design in the next few years? After all the norm is for new FFGs to have many of the same aegis capabilities as larger DDGs, and the new leaps in technology PLAN have made over the last few years has made 054As a less than optimal design lacking rapid scanning/fixed array APAR, the new common VLS, not to mention lack of newer propulsion systems such as CODLAG or even IEPS.
