Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

[airsuperiority]

How you doing, airsuperiority? A moment ago that link worked

[video=youtube;w4q8fs8gTIs]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=w4q8fs8gTIs[/video]

When watching it on Sunday evening I thought the protesters hold umbrellas because it started raining but since then I noticed:

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good luck to you!

Thanks! It's working again. And I'm glad you understand now.

(as I'm listening, the commentator said the organizers are the HK public. And the original OC organizers are even being criticized for trying to shut down the movement. In other words, this movement is real and cuz of the public.)

Kinda funny how people set up tents now.

 

[airsuperiority]

For example, these would be just a few "red lines" that would give beijing a right to politically intervene (obviously it would be scaled based on how much discussion or action has been made):
-Foreign affairs and military (basically the same deal as now)
-Movement towards independence (this would have to be more explicitly detailed for the benefit of all sides, for instance what constitutes "movement"?)
-Attempts to subvert central government authority on the mainland (this won't necessariliy restrict freedom of speech anymore than at present, however it would mean that any elected CE won't have any political sway on the mainland)


If the protesters can make these points clear, then the central government might be willing to listen.

Honestly I hope what you said is true. If it is, I can almost guarantee you all the protestors would be like "yea sure of course. we don't care about those and don't want to do any of those neither"

 

[Blitzo]

Quick note, I give you 99.999% thought that CY is making the situation worse for everyone, and I almost guarantee it. He's been dividing everyone as if if he can't get it, so can't you, kinda attitude. Some people accused him of fanning the flame between HKPF and the public last year, and we're talking about last year. This is also why the public are being so cautious now but also sympathetic towards the police in some sense. And also should consider that some officers did quite on what they feel is unacceptable actions. So yea, what I mean is that the tensions are frightening with the amount of misunderstanding, and CY is there to make it happen. That guy only looks after himself, and he probably knows if he lets things go smooth or let CCP have direct dialogue with the locals, he's losing his job(which he should)


But I can really say, no HK ain't wantin' independence. Tonight I went to a rally, and some folks are carrying the colonial flag. A lot of us became confused and concerned and wanted them to take their flags away because that's not what we're here for. And as you know, no one's carrying flags at the protest right now, not even the HK flag. But I understand what you mean.

Great, well it is reassuring to know that at least some are willing to actively avoid something too inflammatory such as the old colonial flag.

I'm sure Beijing wouldn't mind sacrificing CY, and at the end of the day they'll also want HK to succeed, and probably won't be completely against the universal sufferage HK wants -- but they are super-ultra-fantastically wary about HK using democracy as a means to independence or subverting their power.
The predominant anti-CCP mood among occupy ain't helping no one.

I bet you, if you guys turn up tomorrow with HK and PRC flags side by side, the government will start to change its tune.

 

[MwRYum]

Protestors never mentioned independent state and I don't think they even want that. I'm like, 100% sure independence is never what HKers are thinking, I give you my words on that. Reason is also because it's the most unrealistic thing ever, and it's not really gonna get HK anywhere.

Then it's a good thing that this time so far, the scopes and demands are focused. But let's not forget back in July, the Colonial Colors (the colors of HK separatists) flew high and proud in the annual anti-government march. The images weren't on CCTV (as expected) but were uncensored on their netspace, and you can imagine what manner of comments they have about it. Thus, keeping things focused will be a good thing for the movement.

But without any moderation on the demands the Beijing can walk away with - not necessary with a smile, just not something that'd be marked as a defeat - there's no hope for a good ending. You should know what I mean by that.

 

[airsuperiority]

As it is often quoted, the devil are in the details. The way politics will work for HK vis a vis with Beijing in the background is entirely dependent on the role of each of the key players i.e. Chief executive; Legco.; and Beijing. We know defence and foreign affairs are outside the control of the HK administration and so we can safely rule it out. Honestly, I do not understand the role of the CE in HK politics. It appears to me to be more than ceremonial but beyond that how much direct influence does the role have on daily administration. Is it policy or executive? If the CE does intend to subvert central authorities can it and in what way? What is Beijing's comfort zone of a CE? Is it total submission or merely trust that the person will toe the line and not be a wild card? There are just too many variables to even speculate.

So like, people submits their needs to the CE, and then the CE should address the issue, and maybe consults with Beijing, or maybe Beijing will voice their wants. The problem is, not only this CE shuts down any motions the Beijing says no to(some are grassroots or serious concerns the people have), he also already no longer listens to people anymore. He doesn't even go out and receives the public or anything. He basically doesn't fix anything nor tries to and will only listens and hears from Beijing. He is completely unaccountable to the HK public. We can almost say we don't have a CE.

 

[airsuperiority]

The first step is the ability for the protesters to be more moderate, but right now we lack even that.

Details can be sorted once an ability to negotiate is there. But the protests have no leaders, or are arrested (I suspect they are in some type of talks right now), but even if the leaders were still out here, do we think they would have the foresight to be moderate in their demands? What even are their demands apart from "democracy now, now, now, now"

Basically the problem is right now, it is HK vs China. It needs to be HK demonstrating it is a part of China, willing to work with the central government to work out a compromise, now that they've made enough noise to get their attention.
The ball is occupying Occupy's court (hohoho, punny)

If Beijing sends representatives to the ground for direct dialogue, then you can see that it will be the best, and will be productive and like what you've said. However the problem is that the entire HKSAR, especially CY, and special interests elites won't want that, and won't let it happen.

 

[airsuperiority]

I think the goal is independence. It's just like Taiwan. When the West agreed to recognize the one-China policy in order to get China on their side in the Cold War, that left Taiwan out in the cold. Some people in the US against relations with China told Taiwan to adopt democracy because that would be the only way Taiwan could be protected where democracies would have to defend Taiwan. That was a genius move. Hong Kong wants democracy in order to declare independence. If they're looking to establish their own identity, independence is an important part of that. Once they have democracy, they know the West will have to protect an independence vote.

China should do nothing. Let the protestors bore themselves to death or let them "burn" Hong Kong to the ground by their own actions. Halting business is only going to hurt Hong Kong. The reason why Hong Kong didn't change China like what was advertised before the handover was because Beijing was declaring their financial center to Shanghai. Beijing didn't listen to those in the West that called Hong Kong as China's financial center. If Hong Kong were China's financial center, these protestors would have leverage. Let's also remember that some people want China to crackdown hard so they can use that in their anti-China agenda. These protestors are cannon fodder for them in their personal crusade against China.

It's never about independence, and never will be.

End of story.

 

[airsuperiority]

Re: Chinese Daily Photos 2014!

Like I've said, if you guys really want something substantial, the time for moderation is now. Swallow your pride and think about the reality of how you look to beijing. Then tailor your protest image to your objectives.

If Beijing sends someone to the ground, I'm sure people will be more than eager to talk with the representatives.

 

[Blitzo]

If Beijing sends representatives to the ground for direct dialogue, then you can see that it will be the best, and will be productive and like what you've said. However the problem is that the entire HKSAR, especially CY, and special interests elites won't want that, and won't let it happen.

Then the protesters should seek a direct line to Beijing and bypass CY and special interests elite -- tell Beijing, we're open to negotiate and we're not radical independence seekers.

Like it or not, the prevailing theme over the last few months, is that the movement has been one of seeking something like de facto independence and anti-CCP. Beijing will not want to be the first to blink if that is who they believe they're facing.

At the moment, I feel like if Beijing sends representatives to the protesters they'll get booed quite heavily. The public sentiment (at least broadcasted on media) is overwhelmingly anti CCP. That sentiment is understandable, but not helpful if they want negotiation

 

[airsuperiority]

The negotiations had taken place and broken down. It boils down to one single issue. The OC wants universal suffrage by 2017 unfiltered vs. Beijing's position of filtered candidates. So there is universal agreement on the principle is just how you get there has broken down. The Sino British agreement established the principle of universal suffrage which to Beijing's credit is honouring it except that it comes with Chinese characteristics. It is also enshrined within the Basic Law that it is the goal of having universal suffrage except the terms and timeline in which it will happen is within the jurisdiction of Beijing. Since a definite date is not cast in stone it has become open ended and subject to dispute on timing. So why 2017? There is a long story that I read which I have forgotten the details, but essentially somehow in the negotiation process a 2017 date expectation was set which itself is disputed whether it was a goal or an agreement. Is there room for compromise? Definitely because the Basic law also states that universal suffrage is essentially a live working model that can change over time as conditions allow.

This is how I would propose to de-escalate.
1)Withdraw the riot police. Their presence is just raising tensions. Fortunately that has happened
2)Let the students sit and burn out their passion. Let the emotions ease out of their system
3)Start back door negotiations with the goal of establishing a committee from the parties towards a nomination process for a CE in 2022 that will be acceptable to both side. As long as both side continues to work on things there is always a chance for success. The current problem is because the OC movement do not see a path forward other than protesting.
4)Dismiss C.Y. Unfortunately he is the lightning rod and has to go and plus his departure will go with him a lot of the misdirected grievances. Install an interim CEO from a pool of respected retired civil servant who has demonstrated capable administration skills.

Very well-said, especially #4. Even my dad said that, and on the phone I overheard him discussing with his friend who could be the next good candidate, someone that appeals to the public, the pan-democrats, and the businesspeople, and he named 2 people.

And if Beijing says 2017 is their current system then giving 2022(guaranteed), what hk wants, or a choice of 2017 style or 2022, then maybe that MAY work. Beijing must understand HK really don't trust them at this stage, and if Beijing can show everything will be alright and no backtracking and will honour their words, HKers will give it a possible chance/attempt.

Afterwards, pray the next guy up helps HK get better. HKers don't seek independence, and they're rational about the candidates. If pan-dem doesn't work, they aint gonna get reelected or needs to change the leader. This also makes pro-China camp more competitive and also attentive to people's needs if they wanna get power.