Hong Kong....Occupy Central Demonstrations....

[airsuperiority]

the only leverage HK protesters really have over Beijing is the prospect of their grievance finding its resonance in mainland cities. However given HKer's reputation nowadays one can safely assume that such leverage are not in play in the scenario at hand, which means the potential ramification of defiance and inaction by CCP is negligible. This is bad news for the protesters because they cannot continue to riot indefinitely. momentum in this kind of movement, especially one in which students are the mainstay, often run out quickly.

there is however another approach that can perhaps sustain this movement and even convince Beijing that it deserves proper attention. If the protesters were to occupy main government buildings and replace the city government's executive branch with the connivance or even collaboration from the city council, then Beijing will no longer be able to sit idly and watch. I have a good feeling that this is the path occupy central will eventually resort to if it finds itself to be losing momentum.

Not gonna happen. That's like, the most far-fetched and wildest possibility ever.

 

[Blitzo]

And we ain't talking about far between cases too. It's happened so many times, it's insane. And I mean, if you consider that Singapore recently put in place a law that says whoever defecate in public space, they'll be caned and forced to wash public toilets for a week. While this is Singapore, you can see that it's definitely not far between case otherwise you won't have a strange law like that that popped out. And in HK, people's reaction are praising the Singaporean authorities and condemning HKSAR for failing to act. Some pro-China representatives even came out to say that HKers should "tolerate". How do you tolerate public defecation? This is one of the angers we had towards HKSAR gov't.

No, I agree with this actually, I was saying that people's patience is limited and eventually they'll be justified in feeling pissed off. No pun intended.

 

[airsuperiority]

The status quo would be acceptable to Beijing, but would it be acceptable to the protesters? Their demands are pretty clear, they want everything, now.

They don't mean to make HK democracy tomorrow. Just proper democracy in 2017.

 

[airsuperiority]

2.) Put pressure on the top business leaders, CK Leung, the ministers, and the pro-Beijing crowd in Hong Kong, who might then put pressure on Beijing. Beijing might ignore the protestors but they might not ignore the pro-Beijing business elite. The business elite do not want instability in Hong Kong, and they don't want a 1989-style suppression of the protestors either because they would hurt Hong Kong's image and business environment far worse than the current protests. These business elites could convince Beijing that giving Hong Kong full democracy would satisfy the protestors and ensure stability in the city.

The cynics would say that Beijing will never grant Hong Kong full democracy for fear than an anti-CCP Chief Executive will win the election. But so what if that happened? Nobody in HK wants independence, and even if they did there is no way they could achieve it. What else does China want from HK other than for HK to be officially part of China? HK already hosts Chinese democracy organizations, Tienanmen Square Massacre memorials, the Falun Gong, pro-democracy newspapers, and open internet. What's wrong with letting Hong Kong citizens choose the person who will run their government, manage their taxes, appoint the heads of government agencies, and help make internal laws?

Very, very, very well said and agreed. My dad would totally agree with you for the first paragraph because he's saying the same thing yesterday, and he's one of those businessman who's against what's happening right now(putting himself at odds with the majority somewhat)

And the second paragraph I totally agree because that's exactly how we feel. We don't want independence; we want someone who's accountable to us because Beijing can't pick someone who is.

 

[MwRYum]

You're a HKer, so let's wish for the best shall we? I really wish things work out too. Everyday is technically a lose-lose. I really hope something can work out for both sides, and honestly I hope and believe CY is the one whose head will roll. My dad is so against what's happening right now, but even he thinks CY will have to step down("a matter of time" said by him), and I honestly think this assbag is going to be a scapegoat by CCP for sure. His disappearance is a very important part to the solution in terms of being symbolic.

As a born pessimist I can't help it.

But even if CY get thrown out (by CCP standard, that option is definitely on Xi Jinping's top 5 selection since zero hour) there's still be big problem of "how Beijing can walk out of this with a creditable win-win resolution" to hammer out. By giving Beijing nothing in return, those demands by insurgents only going to make Beijing look like losers.

And CCP, by their traditions, they'd happily take a Pyrrhic victory instead of a clear-cut defeat. On that account, you can imagine what it could only mean for HK.

On one end, this is a leaderless insurgency at best, and none of its prominent players are willing to take anything less than total victory against Beijing; on the other, a hardline regime that would tolerate a Pyrrhic victory instead of suffering a defeat. There's no possibility that there could be a happy ending.

 

[airsuperiority]

The status quo would be acceptable to Beijing, but would it be acceptable to the protesters? Their demands are pretty clear, they want everything, now.




Because lack of veto power and indirect control means it could be used as a much stronger base to subvert central government power. HK also sets a precedent for other territories -- they can have autonomy, but they must be answerable to beijing on a few important matters.
And the independence question is not something I would so willingly dismiss either. I wouldn't put it past any anti china chief executive to selectively read the Basic Law or ignore it altogether -- or even be influenced by foreign powers to seek independence just to create further consternation for the central government.

If there is a way for a number of "hard limits" to be set for any candidates, then that might be acceptable for beijing, but the protesters won't accept anything less other than full autonomy and independence in all but words. More importantly, any conditions that beijing sets probably won't be enough no matter how reasonable.
If there was a single and credible leader that was willing to make more nuanced negotiations, then sure, maybe something could be worked out. But I think the crowd has been whipped to a point where anything less than everything will be unacceptable.

Unless CCP can completely guarantee not all candidates are pro-China only, then maybe things can get somewhere. That's how much HKers doesn't trust Beijing. And even then, I think Hker's been yearning for some proper democracy for a long time, so in a way I'm not too sure.

 

[airsuperiority]

Exactly. It's no-brainer that the current plan to be vetoed on day 1, zero hour, barring some impossible miracle like a big meteor strike leaving a huge crater where the entire Government HQ complex (where the LegCo building also located) once stood, preferably wiped out the entire cabinet and all LegCo members too, so a brand-new ball game can really begin.

The demand by the insurgents calls for "everything or nothing" and giving nothing remotely resemble concession to Beijing in return, so no way Beijing would play along or budge. There're 2 possibilities that it could play out in the end:

1. Beijing muscle in militarily, let blood and grey matter spill all over the streets to make a point to all other cities and region that might hold rebellious notion against the Central Government.
2. Put HK to the sidelines and let it rot, putting Shanghai's resurgence on higher gear, syphoning the capitals from HK to Shanghai, among other things. This will be a slow death for HK, and the most possible outcome of the two.

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[airsuperiority]

Then if the protesters make it clear that their desire to choose their own CE will prevent the CE from having any powers similar to that of an independent state, seek independence, or seek to subvert the central government on issues in China, then there may be room for compromise.

But right now there's none of that moderation, only push.

Protestors never mentioned independent state and I don't think they even want that. I'm like, 100% sure independence is never what HKers are thinking, I give you my words on that. Reason is also because it's the most unrealistic thing ever, and it's not really gonna get HK anywhere.

 

[airsuperiority]

Like I said, if the protesters are serious about their goals, then they should start making noises of moderation.

You can bet they've got Beijing's attention, and in a relatively peaceful way which I am impressed by. However there also needs to be a deliverance that they will not move towards independence nor seek to subvert govt power on the mainland.

Like shen said in a previous post, this entire thing may have been far more successful had the HKers also waved PRC flags and made clear that their desire for greater freedoms would not harm beijing's strategic interests or sovereignty over HK.
I'm not sure how much of the movement you are in contact with, but it may be something worth considering if you guys seriously want universal sufferage. Basically, I'm suggesting nuance to achieve objective goals rather than a blind charge fuelled by ideology (whether it be democracy or anti-CCP)

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The reason movements in China such as in Wukan were resolved, is because the people (despite having greivances) knew that it would be folly to directly challenge the central government, and indeed many were supportive of the central government. In occupy's case, I don't expect them to sing the praises of the CCP or whatever, they need to position themselves as seeking more autonomy and having universal WITHIN China.
And that's the exact problem, from my sense of it.

Quick note, I give you 99.999% thought that CY is making the situation worse for everyone, and I almost guarantee it. He's been dividing everyone as if if he can't get it, so can't you, kinda attitude. Some people accused him of fanning the flame between HKPF and the public last year, and we're talking about last year. This is also why the public are being so cautious now but also sympathetic towards the police in some sense. And also should consider that some officers did quit on what they feel is unacceptable actions. So yea, what I mean is that the tensions are frightening with the amount of misunderstanding, and CY is there to make it happen. That guy only looks after himself, and he probably knows if he lets things go smooth or let CCP have direct dialogue with the locals, he's losing his job(which he should)


But I can really say, no HK ain't wantin' independence. Tonight I went to a rally, and some folks are carrying the colonial flag. A lot of us became confused and concerned and wanted them to take their flags away because that's not what we're here for. And as you know, no one's carrying flags at the protest right now, not even the HK flag. But I understand what you mean.

 

[Blitzo]

Protestors never mentioned independent state and I don't think they even want that. I'm like, 100% sure independence is never what HKers are thinking, I give you my words on that. Reason is also because it's the most unrealistic thing ever, and it's not really gonna get HK anywhere.

In that case, they'll have to show it.

Because that's going to be the biggest factor of mistrust Beijing is seeing right now.

Wave a few PRC flags and reaffirm that HK will be part of China, then you'll probably start seeing something. I can understand why that would be difficult if not ridiculous to consider given the feelings for why this protest happened in the first place, but now that you have beijing's attention, imo the way to get people to the table is moderation. As I've said, the ball is in Occupy's court.