China's SCS Strategy Thread

[solarz]

Welcome to the big league, I am just glad to see China "enjoying" some of the same type of criticism that the US is barraged with on a daily basis. Some of this criticism is justified, and some may not be, but the US does make a legitimate point about freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. To allow that to become a "bottleneck", overwrought by special interests and turf wars, would be a travesty, the US would much prefer to see these disputes go away, and many of these disputes do appear to be contrived???

Criticism is one thing, falsely attributing motivations and reactions is quite another thing altogether. Claiming that China is "angry" about a game of beach volleyball, where ever it is held, is quite ridiculous. The Chinese FM is simply reiterating China's territorial claims.

You are right that these disputes are being contrived, but they're contrived in the US media, and being sold to the US public.

 

[joshuatree]

Criticism is one thing, falsely attributing motivations and reactions is quite another thing altogether. Claiming that China is "angry" about a game of beach volleyball, where ever it is held, is quite ridiculous. The Chinese FM is simply reiterating China's territorial claims.

You are right that these disputes are being contrived, but they're contrived in the US media, and being sold to the US public.

Agreed, a bit of over-amping China's reaction to the volleyball match. If China did not reiterate it's claim, then the spin would be "see, so the place does not belong to China since they said nothing". Damned if you do, damned if you don't. For instance, I wonder what the reaction would be by Vietnam or the Philippines if China held a BBQ and Bball game with let's say the North Koreans on Fiery Cross?

 

[solarz]

Agreed, a bit of over-amping China's reaction to the volleyball match. If China did not reiterate it's claim, then the spin would be "see, so the place does not belong to China since they said nothing". Damned if you do, damned if you don't. For instance, I wonder what the reaction would be by Vietnam or the Philippines if China held a BBQ and Bball game with let's say the North Koreans on Fiery Cross?

It's not such a bad idea, really. The South China Sea islands have great tourism value. With a bit of development, I can certainly see cruise tours being organized around those islands.

 

[Blackstone]

Agreed, a bit of over-amping China's reaction to the volleyball match. If China did not reiterate it's claim, then the spin would be "see, so the place does not belong to China since they said nothing". Damned if you do, damned if you don't. For instance, I wonder what the reaction would be by Vietnam or the Philippines if China held a BBQ and Bball game with let's say the North Koreans on Fiery Cross?

What's Philippines' and Vietnam's exit strategy? Do they honestly believe their PR stunts will make much difference in the grand scheme of things? They clearly want to pull the US and as many other countries in the territorial disputes as they can, but what happens if the US continue to provide moral support, but little else? Finally, Japan is saber rattling and sending military aid to both Philippines and Vietnam. How will China respond to that?

 

[joshuatree]

What's Philippines' and Vietnam's exit strategy? Do they honestly believe their PR stunts will make much difference in the grand scheme of things? They clearly want to pull the US and as many other countries in the territorial disputes as they can, but what happens if the US continue to provide moral support, but little else? Finally, Japan is saber rattling and sending military aid to both Philippines and Vietnam. How will China respond to that?

Well it's pretty clear the Philippine's and Vietnam's current strategy is to court international sympathy to which I do find China's use of media unsophisticated and lacking. In short, can use a lot of improvement. Footage of cut cables and sabotaging would go a long way instead of just statements.

 

[solarz]

Well it's pretty clear the Philippine's and Vietnam's current strategy is to court international sympathy to which I do find China's use of media unsophisticated and lacking. In short, can use a lot of improvement. Footage of cut cables and sabotaging would go a long way instead of just statements.

That's because China is playing a different game. Courting "international" (read: Western) sympathy is a foolish endeavor for China.

Instead, China is changing the facts on the ground. An oil rig here, a newly developed island there, once China has enough infrastructure built, it will create a new city like Sansha, at which point the other claimants will have no choice but to accept this new reality. After all, does anyone still think Vietnam has a chance of claiming the Paracels now?

The Falklands War has shown that the absolutely best way to cement your sovereignty claim on an island is to have your citizens living on that island. This is why China reacted so furiously to Japan's nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands.

 

[Blackstone]

Well it's pretty clear the Philippine's and Vietnam's current strategy is to court international sympathy to which I do find China's use of media unsophisticated and lacking. In short, can use a lot of improvement. Footage of cut cables and sabotaging would go a long way instead of just statements.

Yes, but what can courting international sympathy do for Philippines and Vietnam? If their goal is to be objects of pity, then they're doing well, but it does nothing to stop or even slowdown China's relentless drive to dominate the SCS.

 

[joshuatree]

That's because China is playing a different game. Courting "international" (read: Western) sympathy is a foolish endeavor for China.

Instead, China is changing the facts on the ground. An oil rig here, a newly developed island there, once China has enough infrastructure built, it will create a new city like Sansha, at which point the other claimants will have no choice but to accept this new reality. After all, does anyone still think Vietnam has a chance of claiming the Paracels now?

The Falklands War has shown that the absolutely best way to cement your sovereignty claim on an island is to have your citizens living on that island. This is why China reacted so furiously to Japan's nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands.

Playing a different game doesn't mean you can't fend off the media offensive from the other side. You don't have to court international sympathy but having some footage that simply deflates the other side's bubble is a nice ace card to have. Does it really cost that much resource to have a few sailors videotape from their side of the confrontations?

Yes, but what can courting international sympathy do for Philippines and Vietnam? If their goal is to be objects of pity, then they're doing well, but it does nothing to stop or even slowdown China's relentless drive to dominate the SCS.

Well if China starts bringing position papers to the UN, it sure is a better position to go there if international sympathy had been kept in check.

 

[Equation]

China Building Dubai-Style Fake Islands in South China Sea

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Sand, cement, wood and steel are the latest tools in China's territorial arsenal as it seeks to literally reshape the South China Sea.

Chinese ships carrying construction materials regularly ply the waters near the disputed Spratly Islands, carrying out work that will see new islands rise from the sea, according to Philippine fishermen and officials in the area. China's efforts are reminiscent of Dubai's Palm resort-style land reclamation, they say.

"They are creating artificial islands that never existed since the creation of the world, like the ones in Dubai," said Eugenio Bito-onon, 58, mayor of a sparsely populated stretch of the Spratlys called Kalayaan, or "freedom" in Filipino. "The construction is massive and nonstop. That would lead to total control of the South China Sea," Bito-onon said May 28, citing fishermen.

Artificial islands could help China anchor its claims and potentially develop bases to control waters that contain some of the world's busiest shipping lanes. China, which says the area falls within its 1940s-era "nine-dash line" map, successfully assumed control of the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in 2012 and has pressured Vietnam in the past month with an exploration oil rig in waters claimed by its neighbor.

"China's end game is to have de facto -- if not de jure -- control over adjacent waters, the Western Pacific," said Richard Javad Heydarian, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University. "The only question is if and how it will achieve it. China might need to consider more coercive measures to do so given the hardening resistance of other claimant states."

Islands, Reefs
The Spratlys are a collection of more than 100 islands or reefs that dot the waters of the southern South China Sea. The islands have been at the center of sparring for decades, claimed in part by Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam, the Philippines and China. In 1988, a Chinese naval attack in the area killed 64 Vietnamese border guards. China has sought to cut off supplies to the Ayungin Shoal, where the Philippines scuttled a naval boat in 1999 on which it stations a handful of soldiers.

I told ya building these artificial islands at strategic points of interests will come in handy for China. I just don't like how the article use of the word "fake" (to convey an image of fakes in China) instead artificial.

 

[solarz]

Playing a different game doesn't mean you can't fend off the media offensive from the other side. You don't have to court international sympathy but having some footage that simply deflates the other side's bubble is a nice ace card to have. Does it really cost that much resource to have a few sailors videotape from their side of the confrontations?

Well if China starts bringing position papers to the UN, it sure is a better position to go there if international sympathy had been kept in check.

There's a saying in the media business: there's no such thing as bad publicity. China refuting Vietnam/Philippines will only play into their game of attention-seeking. Far better to just ignore them and keep working.

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I told ya building these artificial islands at strategic points of interests will come in handy for China. I just don't like how the article use of the word "fake" (to convey an image of fakes in China) instead artificial.

Yeah, a "fake" island is one where you fall into water when you try to step foot on it. Those are artificial or "man-made" islands.