055 DDG Large Destroyer Thread

[Blitzo]

Chinese weapon industry isn't really famous for its automation compared to other countries. If 055 is really going to be around 11,000 tons or even the extreme 13,000 tons, it would be comparable to King Sejong Great Class Destroyer. It's the latest batch of the Arleigh Burke, yet it still require 300-400 crews (according to Wiki). Even the super avant-garde Type 45 has regular crew size of 191. It's able to have so few crews due to much smaller displacement and its avant-garde internals, mostly electric with high level of automation.

Judging by PLAN's relative conservatism with utilizing new technologies, 055 probably won't be near the level of Type 45, probably most likely to be similar to later batch of Arleigh Burkes. If so, given the rumoured displacement of 13,000 tons, each ship would require at leat 300-350 crews. Then multiplied by 30, that's minimum 10,000 plus another 3000 to 4000 needed for rotations.

A rise in displacement doesn't always correspond linearly with a rise in crew.
Furthermore, I think we disagree as to how advanced 055 will be in terms of automation.

But sure, let's say 300-350 crew for a 13,500 ton ship as a top estimate.

(Btw neither sejong nor any burke variant reach 13,000 tons, sejong just touches 11,000 tons by some sources, and flight iii burke at present will skim the 10,000 ton mark)

15 years isn't really that long. Training a generation of experienced and capable sailors require minimum 7 - 8 years. Even if China starts now, that's only 2 training batches. Considering this, each batch will be about 6000 - 8000 students. Does China even have that many naval academies to train this many sailors at the same time? Especially considering that they will be trained towards using the same equipments?

It may take 8 years to create a well seasoned sailor from a fresh green recruit, but what makes you think the PLAN will seek green recruits to crew their 055s?

What will most likely happen is that they will pick and choose crew members that are retiring from older and smaller ships, along with some crew from current surface combatants, and reassign them to 055. Considering they are all experienced sailors, they will only have to relearn how to handle a newer ship -- a process far shorter than the 7-8 years because they're already familiar with the ins and outs of naval operation and will only have to learn how to operate the ship's systems. Of course there will probably be some seamen who have 055s as their new posts, but most of them will likely be reassigned from other smaller, or older ships.

Using your logic, navies should be assigning the crew of a new ship as a brand new crew, whereas in reality, the crew will likely be a mix, having worked their way up from smaller ships
So now that you understand this, the whole idea of the PLAN "training" 8000 crew over the next 15 years is far less daunting because they're not requriing 8000 experienced crew who have started from square one, but rather the 055's complement will be drawn from experienced crew of varying degrees.
And in this way, the PLAN is quite spoilt for choice, they'll have a plethora of sailors from FACs, corvettes, frigates, destroyers, to choose from to crew their 055s, and you can be sure they'll choose some of the best to crew their first few 055s so they can train future crews on the ins and outs of the ship.

If anything, there will be competition among the ranks to perform better to get better postings on newer and more capable ships.
That was the case with liaoning, where the PLAN chose some of the cream of their crop for their first aircraft carrier.

Even if that's achieved, which isn't too hard given China's enormous resources, that means PLAN will have 30 055's on top the 28+ modern destroyers (including 052 and newer). That's about 60 - 65 (if more 052D's are built) modern destroyers in the PLAN. Then adding on another 33 modern frigates that's already in service, that's about close to 100 modern warships. Even USN only has 84 current surface combatants (Cruiser + Destroyer). A lot of those are retiring so the new addtions of Arleigh Burkes will only maintain the current status quo. Does China really need that many big warships? Considering it's not the world police nor is it going to "liberate" any rogue states.

When digging deep into the matter and really thinking about it, the claim of 30 ships in 15 years becomes a bit too overwhelming to take-in.

You're missing out the older destroyers that will be retired over the next 15 years, as well as the other smaller older patrol craft whose ships would be retired and whose crews can be reassigned to new, much larger ships.

By 2030, all of the PLAN's destroyers built before the mid 2000s will probably be retired -- that is two 052Cs, two 052Bs, two 052s, two 051Cs, one 051B, four sovremenny's and multiple Ludas (these will probably be retired earliest). That is about 16 ships to be made up for.
So if the PLAN want to maintain current force levels, they'll need to build about another dozen ships -- which will be made up with by the 12 052Ds we expect. However, even then, that is only 12 052Ds + 4 052Cs -- 16 ships (btw I do not believe more than 12 052Ds will be built, nor do I believe at this stage that there will be an 052D successor in the 7000-8000 ton range).
Currently there are about 24 DDGs among the PLAN. So they'll need another 8 ships -- 055s.
But, do we think the PLAN will be satisfied with a 24 DDG fleet? Of course not. They'll likely seek to expand it.
That is where the 30 055s by 2030+ come in. With 30+ 055s + 16 052C/Ds, they will have a DDG force of 46-48ish.
Now, we can expect the PLAN to maintain an equal number of FFGs to their DDGs -- so let's say 48 DDGs (052C/D + 055s) and 48 FFGs (054A + next gen FFG) combined by 2030. That will be nearly 100 surface combatants.

You may argue that is too many ships, but by 2030 China will be the largest economy in the world, possibly with far more foreign interests it will have to defend, probably with multiple carriers and amphibious assault groups to escort as well. Not as many as the USN, but still a good number. In that sense, ~50 DDGs and ~50 FFGs for both global interests and regional security is a perfectly sane number.

And if we compare a hypothetical 100 DDGs/FFGs to the current USN's surface combatants, it will still be far smaller in displacement because the USN currently has something like 20 10,000 ton ticonderogas and 60 9,000-10,000 ton burkes, along with a number of OHP frigates and LCSs, not to mention zumwalts and likely a next generation post flight iii burke cruiser around 2030.

Also, remember that by 2030 the PLAN will have retired a good number of their other short range ships like FACs, patrol boats, and possibly even corvettes, so they will have excess crew to assign to more FFGs and DDGs.

My final take away line, is that by 2030 the PLAN will experience both more need to protect foreign interests than it does now, and it will also retire many ships by 2030 which has the effect of both freeing crew to reassign to new ships and posts, as well as forcing the PLAN to build more ships to not only make up the shortfall in fleet numbers but build more to expand fleet numbers relative to today.

I'm not saying the PLAN will build 30 055s because as I said many posts ago, I think it is very ambitious and sounds too good to be true. But I think that it isn't impossible.

 

[latenlazy]

You're missing out the older destroyers that will be retired over the next 15 years, as well as the other smaller older patrol craft whose ships would be retired and whose crews can be reassigned to new, much larger ships.

By 2030, all of the PLAN's destroyers built before 2005 will probably be retired -- that is two 052Cs, two 052Bs, two 052s, two 051Cs, one 051B, four sovremenny's and multiple Ludas (these will probably be retired earliest). That is about 16 ships to be made up for.
So if the PLAN want to maintain current force levels, they'll need to build about another dozen ships -- which will be made up with by the 12 052Ds we expect. However, even then, that is only 12 052Ds + 4 052Cs -- 16 ships (btw I do not believe more than 12 052Ds will be built, nor do I believe at this stage that there will be an 052D successor in the 7000-8000 ton range).
Currently there are about 24 DDGs among the PLAN. So they'll need another 8 ships -- 055s.
But, do we think the PLAN will be satisfied with a 24 DDG fleet? Of course not. They'll likely seek to expand it.
That is where the 30 055s by 2030+ come in. With 30+ 055s + 16 052C/Ds, they will have a DDG force of 46-48ish.
Now, we can expect the PLAN to maintain an equal number of FFGs to their DDGs -- so let's say 48 DDGs (052C/D + 055s) and 48 FFGs (054A + next gen FFG) combined by 2030. That will be nearly 100 surface combatants.

You may argue that is too many ships, but by 2030 China will be the largest economy in the world, possibly with far more foreign interests it will have to defend, probably with multiple carriers and amphibious assault groups to escort as well. Not as many as the USN, but still a good number. In that sense, ~50 DDGs and ~50 FFGs for both global interests and regional security is a perfectly sane number.

And if we compare a hypothetical 100 DDGs/FFGs to the current USN's surface combatants, it will still be far smaller in displacement because the USN currently has something like 20 10,000 ton ticonderogas and 60 9,000-10,000 ton burkes, along with a number of OHP frigates and LCSs, not to mention zumwalts and likely a next generation post flight iii burke cruiser around 2030.

Also, remember that by 2030 the PLAN will have retired a good number of their other short range ships like FACs, patrol boats, and possibly even corvettes, so they will have excess crew to assign to more FFGs and DDGs.

My final take away line, is that by 2030 the PLAN will experience both more need to protect foreign interests than it does now, and it will also retire many ships by 2030 which has the effect of both freeing crew to reassign to new ships and posts, as well as forcing the PLAN to build more ships to not only make up the shortfall in fleet numbers but build more to expand fleet numbers relative to today.

I'm not saying the PLAN will build 30 055s because as I said many posts ago, I think it is very ambitious and sounds too good to be true. But I think that it isn't impossible.

I think 40-50 052s+055s is probably the probably about the right number. If they build more than 12 052Ds that will probably mean fewer 055s.

 

[xiabonan]

Although it's not really directly said, but I do believe that the level of preparedness and the level of training can indeed be inferred or reflected by many things.

For example, I think we will agree that Chinese ships are almost always in a very clean state, the paint is almost always maintained very well. When we see photos taken during open days when these ships visit ports around the world, we can see that the interior is maintained well also. Weapons, living area, dining hall, command room, etc; be it newer ships or older ships.

Besides, from PLAN's overseas deployment in recent years I believe that we could also get a glance at their level of training and preparedness. Be it the anti-piracy efforts off the coast of Somalia, the single ship escort mission during the Libyan uprising--and it's an emergency incident that took place during the anti-piracy mission, which again requires a high level of preparedness; or the escort of Syrian chemical weapons, or the various regular naval exercises every year that involves more and more ships in farther and farther seas, or the recent mass deployment of ships in the MH370 search and rescue efforts (again this is totally sudden and without any prior warning or any sign, and these ships including the older 053s could just sail at top speed and reach as far as the Southern end of South China Sea in the shortest possible time).

Another sign with the increasing level of confidence is that newer ships are being commissioned faster than before, and being deployed in the far seas earlier and more often than before.

Not only that, I believe those who are careful can see that in these recent missions, almost all the ships being deployed are newer ships like the 054As, 052Cs, and occasionally 052Bs.

I believe these signs point towards one conclusion: there's increasing willingness, as well capability of the PLAN in commissioning newer ships faster and deploy these ships in missions faster. This means that the PLAN has entered a virtuous cycle whereby more ships would mean more training opportunities, and more skilled crew, and these skilled crew in turn make the process of deploying new ships faster.

There's some personal reflection that I want to voice here as well. I believe that the PLAN has grown and matured so much in so little time, that the initial "WOW" factor is no longer there for many of the members here. We then gradually took it for granted, and got so used to it that many of us here, including myself, tend to compare the PLAN with some of the best navies out there, the US navy, the UK navy, Japanese navy, etc, in terms of both hardware and proficiency in ocean-going missions such as the anti-piracy efforts. The progress made by PLAN naturally made many of us raised our expectations, without realising that the starting point is actually really low and humbling.

At the beginning of this century, which is a mere less than 14 years ago, the PLAN's best ship is the original 052 and the 053H3. None of PLAN's ships have area-air-defense systems, none has AESA radars, none has VLS, not a single carrier, there's severe lack of training, a typical green water navy tied tight by the two island chains, merely an oversized coastal guard force--Heck, even the American Coast Guard ships are all equipped with gas turbines, and China only has TWO ships that has them! And those are LM2500!

And look where the PLAN is today? Just take a look at the stark contrast between the proposals in the carrier thread and this thread+052D thread+054 thread and the situation in 2000, I don't think problems like "insufficient crew" should concern us--if the PLAN could train up enough crew in such short time with NO proper training ships for all these new modern ships, then why can't the PLAN, who now possesses a sizeable inventory of modern ships, use them to train up even more skillful crew in the future to meet the demand?

 

[latenlazy]

Although it's not really directly said, but I do believe that the level of preparedness and the level of training can indeed be inferred or reflected by many things.

For example, I think we will agree that Chinese ships are almost always in a very clean state, the paint is almost always maintained very well. When we see photos taken during open days when these ships visit ports around the world, we can see that the interior is maintained well also. Weapons, living area, dining hall, command room, etc; be it newer ships or older ships.

Besides, from PLAN's overseas deployment in recent years I believe that we could also get a glance at their level of training and preparedness. Be it the anti-piracy efforts off the coast of Somalia, the single ship escort mission during the Libyan uprising--and it's an emergency incident that took place during the anti-piracy mission, which again requires a high level of preparedness; or the escort of Syrian chemical weapons, or the various regular naval exercises every year that involves more and more ships in farther and farther seas, or the recent mass deployment of ships in the MH370 search and rescue efforts (again this is totally sudden and without any prior warning or any sign, and these ships including the older 053s could just sail at top speed and reach as far as the Southern end of South China Sea in the shortest possible time).

Another sign with the increasing level of confidence is that newer ships are being commissioned faster than before, and being deployed in the far seas earlier and more often than before.

Not only that, I believe those who are careful can see that in these recent missions, almost all the ships being deployed are newer ships like the 054As, 052Cs, and occasionally 052Bs.

I believe these signs point towards one conclusion: there's increasing willingness, as well capability of the PLAN in commissioning newer ships faster and deploy these ships in missions faster. This means that the PLAN has entered a virtuous cycle whereby more ships would mean more training opportunities, and more skilled crew, and these skilled crew in turn make the process of deploying new ships faster.

There's some personal reflection that I want to voice here as well. I believe that the PLAN has grown and matured so much in so little time, that the initial "WOW" factor is no longer there for many of the members here. We then gradually took it for granted, and got so used to it that many of us here, including myself, tend to compare the PLAN with some of the best navies out there, the US navy, the UK navy, Japanese navy, etc, in terms of both hardware and proficiency in ocean-going missions such as the anti-piracy efforts. The progress made by PLAN naturally made many of us raised our expectations, without realising that the starting point is actually really low and humbling.

At the beginning of this century, which is a mere less than 14 years ago, the PLAN's best ship is the original 052 and the 053H3. None of PLAN's ships have area-air-defense systems, none has AESA radars, none has VLS, not a single carrier, there's severe lack of training, a typical green water navy tied tight by the two island chains, merely an oversized coastal guard force--Heck, even the American Coast Guard ships are all equipped with gas turbines, and China only has TWO ships that has them! And those are LM2500!

And look where the PLAN is today? Just take a look at the stark contrast between the proposals in the carrier thread and this thread+052D thread+054 thread and the situation in 2000, I don't think problems like "insufficient crew" should concern us--if the PLAN could train up enough crew in such short time with NO proper training ships for all these new modern ships, then why can't the PLAN, who now possesses a sizeable inventory of modern ships, use them to train up even more skillful crew in the future to meet the demand?

I wouldn't take it that far. Part of this discussion about preparedness is about combat readiness, and you can never cheat time on that front. I think the pace of physical modernization is pretty self evident, but I wouldn't suggest that the PLAN is at some virtuous cycle with its training. The real work on that front comes after the hardware. I just don't expect the level of combat preparedness to be the limiter on hardware acquisition.

 

[xiabonan]

I wouldn't take it that far. Part of this discussion about preparedness is about combat readiness, and you can never cheat time on that front. I think the pace of physical modernization is pretty self evident, but I wouldn't suggest that the PLAN is at some virtuous cycle with its training. The real work on that front comes after the hardware. I just don't expect the level of combat preparedness to be the limiter on hardware acquisition.

Well clearly you missed my point.

Of course proper training could only be done after the hardware.

Now that the PLAN is having more and more new ships and the more ships they have, the more training platforms they have. Suppose they need to train a batch of crew at different posts, if they have more ships, that means more of that particular post will be available. Freshmen could live and learn on an actual ship with guidance from skilled crew. As such, I believe that training will be accelerated as they don't need as much time when they actually start serving on a new ship.

This is what I mean by "virtuous cycle". What I was trying to say was simply this: more modern ships means more actual training opportunities, and more crew can be trained and the training can be accelerated, and this would mean new ships will be combat ready faster.

 

[by78]

Sheer speculation:

 

[xiabonan]

Guys I'll explain why the above photos are excessively flooded with watermarks.

There's great amount of rivalry and hatred between CDF and HSH forum. And it started off because some members in CDF re-posted HSH's photos but removed the watermark. Later on even the super moderators start to step in and accuse the other party, and it got so bad between them such that nowadays even mentioning the other forum's name will get your account banned or deleted.

 

[asif iqbal]

Guys I'll explain why the above photos are excessively flooded with watermarks.

There's great amount of rivalry and hatred between CDF and HSH forum. And it started off because some members in CDF re-posted HSH's photos but removed the watermark. Later on even the super moderators start to step in and accuse the other party, and it got so bad between them such that nowadays even mentioning the other forum's name will get your account banned or deleted.

Well that's really immature cus its almost ruined the freggin picture

 

[latenlazy]

Guys I'll explain why the above photos are excessively flooded with watermarks.

There's great amount of rivalry and hatred between CDF and HSH forum. And it started off because some members in CDF re-posted HSH's photos but removed the watermark. Later on even the super moderators start to step in and accuse the other party, and it got so bad between them such that nowadays even mentioning the other forum's name will get your account banned or deleted.

These Chinese communities can be so petty. But then, most of the posts in these forums reflect that so I'm not really surprised.

 

[Blitzo]

These Chinese communities can be so petty. But then, most of the posts in these forums reflect that so I'm not really surprised.

I think its pretty hilarious actually, shows they got character.

And if any western defence site picks up on this they'd have to say "uh yeah just ignore the wallpaper of watermarks, it's some chinese inter-forum blood feud"...