After the last few days' events, I think I have gotten a better feel for China's strategy with regards to its ADIZ.
I think most of us wrongly followed the western media's alarmist hype and thought that China was intending to take an almost Russian like approach and go toe-to-toe with America and Japan and give them a little taste of their own medicine and treat American, and Japanese especially, military aircraft in the same confrontational and aggressive manner as they have treated Chinese military aircraft operating in international airspace.
However, that was never China's style, and rather mark a shift in strategy, what we have seen is a continuation of past Chinese trends of being firm but subtle.
China knew right from the start that the usual suspects would get all annoyed and sing the old China threat song, so China used that predictablilty and turned it against them.
China knew that its detractors in the west would immediately assume the worst of its intentions when it declared the ADIZ, so it was deliberately vague during the announcement to allow the rabidly anti-China elements in the western press and governments the wiggle room they needed to make all sorts of scary predictions and whip up a sense of fear and tension. The more hysterical the western media and Japan got, the more calm and relaxed China behaved, and the more starkly the reality and the projections clashed. At the end of the day, no matter how well you spin a story, if you are constantly shown to be wrong, odds are you are going to loose influence and even your job. Maybe that won't happen that much in the western press, but I would like to think the US military values their analysis being right more than them telling the brass what they like to hear.
Practically, rather than allow itself to be led around the nose chasing after every probe by foreign air forces, the PLAAF has opted to calmly and professionally conduct its patrols in a non-confrontational manner, exactly the way one would emply an ADIZ as an ADIZ rather than as a pretext to intimidate foreign military aircraft flying in the zone.
Those B52s were a test by America of China's intentions. Their huge size and the duration they stayed within the new ADIZ meant that the PLAAF could not have not seen them, and could easily have intercepted them if it wished to. The US was also being subtle and coy by sending those B52s without escort and ordering them to only skirt the edge of the ADIZ and fly in a North-South heading along the zone's edge rather than towards China so as to show no hostile intent.
In a sense, rather than just being a belligerent act of provokation to proverbially flip Beijing the bird as it was being widely portrayed in the western media, the B52 flight was designed more as a subtle and practical test of intentions to see whether China's ADIZ was an attempt to limit foreign freedom of navigation within that declared zone as Washington initially feared.
Publicly, the US might be all tough talk and condemnations, but I think privately, they were very reassured by China's response to their test. And that may well have been a significant factor in the US government decision to publically advise its airlines to recognise and obey China's ADIZ as a sort of tacit acknowledgement of China's ADIZ and a signal to Beijing that so long as it does not try to interfere with non-threatening movement within its ADIZ, Washington can live with it even if they are not exactly happy about it.
I believe the advanced warning China gave South Korea and the similar non-confrontational response the PLAAF gave to probing South Korean fighters also greatly mollified the South Koreans, and while publically the US, South Korea and Japan may appear to form a united front against China's ADIZ, in reality, China has managed to isolate Japan as the only one who feels truly threatened and annoyed by the ADIZ. The Japanese are not stupid and they can see how the cards are falling and they feel their growing isolation on their opposition to China's ADIZ keenly, which is why they seem to be turning to ever more desperate long shots and acting ever more hysterical, which ironically is further isolating itself and moving it further away from the positions of the US and South Korea.
If Japan doesn't get a grip soon and keep carrying on as it has, there may well be a turning point whereby even the most rabid anti-China spin doctor in the western press or the most hawkish generals in the Pentegon cannot help but start seeing Japan as the source of tensions and troubles rather than China, and I think that is precisely China's game plan.