East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

[Blackstone]

They have the means to intercept those planes. They havent, becuase they dont really need to, and because they dont want to escalate things further. There is no need to launch fighters just to identify foreign military planes. The reason why they are launching warplanes is mainly for internal comsumption, to give the impression that they are "defending" the ADIZ, coupled with ambiguous press wording that tries to mask their true actions.

Once again, they seem to avoid foreign military aircraft


the problem of not intercepting foreign military planes is that it discredits PLA and the chinese government, specially after they had warned of consequences if foreign military planes did not comply with the rules of ADIZ.

Not even close. Japan never intercepted any PLA or Chinese government air crafts over Diaoyu area. Both sides will probably scramble fighters that just happen to arrive on scene a few minutes too late to intercept. That's been the dance so far, and they'll likely stick to it.

The US and japan dont like china to install an ADIZ. Thats why they took advantage of the poorly setup of the ADIZ to heavily criticise it. IMO The announcement by the US government for the civilian Airlines to comply with the ADIZ rules is just another way to demonize the chinese ADIZ, presenting the possibility that china could harm the civilian planes.

Probably correct. Close enough for government work, anyway.

Bad PR for PLA and china.

Bad PR? So what? America wants to be liked in the world, but China doesn't really care if other nations like her or not, as long as they do what she wants. China now has a new status quo in place, and will strengthen it over time. United States's de facto acceptance of the new ADIZ takes the wind out of Japan's protests. In addition, the 'kill a chicken to scare the monkeys' affect might cause some of the smaller claimants to think twice before taking actions in the future.

On balance, China probably won more than she lost. Time will tell.

 

[chuck731]

Afaik, no Chinese manned aircraft or Uav had actually overflown senkaku since beginning of the crisis, n or penetrated into what might be construed as territorial airspace around senkaku. Instead they have all skirted around the outer limits of senkaku territorial airspace.

 

[chuck731]

Not even close. Japan never intercepted any PLA or Chinese government air crafts over Diaoyu area. Both sides will probably scramble fighters that just happen to arrive on scene a few minutes too late to intercept. That's been the dance so far, and they'll likely stick to it.


Probably correct. Close enough for government work, anyway.


Bad PR? So what? America wants to be liked in the world, but China doesn't really care if other nations like her or not, as long as they do what she wants. China now has a new status quo in place, and will strengthen it over time. United States's de facto acceptance of the new ADIZ takes the wind out of Japan's protests. In addition, the 'kill a chicken to scare the monkeys' affect might cause some of the smaller claimants to think twice before taking actions in the future.

On balance, China probably won more than she lost. Time will tell.

In the short term, That depends almost entirely on Japan's response, or rather what response Japan can obtain full tacit or overt cooperation from the US to make. If the US puts her weight behind rallying all regional powers to ignore the ADIZ, then china probably lost that round. But the US seem to have not made up her mind and has picked a middle course..

Maybe china's intention is to wear down the JASDF in the long term by forcing it maintain "patrol parity" with PLAAF near senkaku?

 

[Mr T]

No other opposing nation will ever follow another nation's ADIZ guidelines.

But there has to be some sort of real-world effect of the zone. Otherwise, what's the point?

EDIT: I've just read Jeff's post above. I sort of understand the concept of showing other countries you're keeping an eye on aircraft moving through an area, but I'm not sure that declaring the zone has been a net positive for China.

furthermore given the vast majority of civil airlines are giving china their flight plans they clearly acknowledge the ADIZ too

It depends which ones you're talking about, but generally airlines are going to do anything to avoid trouble. They're businesses, they're not there to get involved in political disputes. I'm sure they usually file plans whenever a country asks them to do so.

I have a feeling China is more interested in military aircraft entering the zone.

Japan has even asked china to roll back their ADIZ

Well, yes, because they see it (rightly or wrongly) as a provocative act. Like if someone said "I like your girlfriend, she's mine now". Simply saying it doesn't make it so, but you'd want him to shut up nonetheless.

Clearly the US doesn't agree, but we also agree that the US response could have been much more forceful. I'm not suggesting that indiates weakness, but I think what Sampanviking meant was that it was a measured response.

I don't want to put words in Sampan's mouth, but the way I read his post was that this was a victory for China, ergo the US had shown weakness.

Of course the US could have been more forceful, it could have launched a pre-emptive attack on China. But that would have been daft and unthinkable. I think the US' "measured" response as you put it was the sensible option, not because it gave a victory to China but because it put the ball back in China's court without making things significantly worse.

Well everything China does to improve its military capabilities and readiness annoys its neighbours

You see I don't agree with that. People take note of China's military modernisation, but it's China's actions that define how people react to it. Like I don't think anyone is threatened by the Royal Navy building two big new aircraft carriers, despite we haven't had that sort of power-projection capability for several decades.

WRT south korea, China actually forewarned South Korea a few days before it announced its ADIZ.

I wasn't aware of that, but I don't see that warning someone ahead of time you're going to encroach on what they see is their territory is much of a concession.

You can find western forums less professional than this one...

This is a forum staffed by Chinese and non-Chinese mods, and I'm not really sure what your point is. If it's to do with how nationalist Chinese are v other countries, I was merely thinking over possible reasons for declaring the zone. I'm not suggesting Chinese are all rabidly nationalist. Hope there was no misunderstanding there.

Did China mishandle the first day with the B-52s? I see no indication that you think they did. The US "challenged" the ADIZ, but they were so far out it probably wasn't even worth sendign planes up to meet them.

So at what stage will China send planes up? It's easy to dismiss the B-52 incursion as not worth worrying about, but it just begs the question when will the zone be enforced?

Did US support for Japan live up to Japan's expectations? Well, US media is certainly championing support for Japan, but once you look through that veil, the US only sent a couple of their oldest and least survivable bombers, unarmed on the far edge of the ADIZ.

The B-52 is a well recognised sign of American power. It's a message that everyone understands, regardless of what country they come from. Much like sending a battleship somewhere (when navies still had them), despite the arrival of powerful anti-ship missiles.

Compared to past US "warning" acts such as sailing two carriers near the taiwan strait in the third taiwan strait crisis, this response is almost negligible.

Umm, the US was concerned China was going to invade Taiwan. Is there any suggestion China might be readying for an attack on Japan? No. You're comparing apples with oranges.

 

[Blackstone]

In the short term, That depends almost entirely on Japan's response, or rather what response Japan can obtain full tacit or overt cooperation from the US to make. If the US puts her weight behind rallying all regional powers to ignore the ADIZ, then china probably lost that round. But the US seem to have not made up her mind and has picked a middle course..

It seems the US has tacitly accepted China's new ADIZ, as indicated by the mild initial response, followed up by official recommendations to civilian airlines to acquiesce.

Maybe china's intention is to wear down the JASDF in the long term by forcing it maintain "patrol parity" with PLAAF near senkaku?

China knows time is on her side, so little by little, she exerts her influence/control over the Diaoyu islands. Consultations with South Korea (and with the US?) before the fact, plus America's de facto acceptance of China's ADIZ isolates Japan and ever so slightly weakens its hold on Diaoyu.

 

[kyanges]

So at what stage will China send planes up? It's easy to dismiss the B-52 incursion as not worth worrying about, but it just begs the question when will the zone be enforced?

I've thought that's what the B52 flights were there to find out.

 

[Rutim]

China knows time is on her side, so little by little, she exerts her influence/control over the Diaoyu islands. Consultations with South Korea (and with the US?) before the fact, plus America's de facto acceptance of China's ADIZ isolates Japan and ever so slightly weakens its hold on Diaoyu.

What does something like 'consulting' - in fact saying 'we're establishing our ADIZ' (that must be some new way of making 'consultations') - have to do with strenghtening hold on Diaoyu while air forces of any given country in region don't care about that? It's only going to bother civilian planes.

 

[TerraN_EmpirE]

The B52 flight it seems to me was made for two fold reasoning. 1) a message to Beijing that the US military would not respect the ADIZ. The B52 has a huge RCS and would have been visible from any Chinese air defenses. The B52 might as well have been a billboard with a picture of Obama making a face at the Chinese government its so blatant.
2) to test for reactions. To see just how long it would take the PLA to act if it did act.
the Chinese lack of reaction was likely considered as the identity of the craft in question were likely with out doubt.

now the military action is one side. I think it shows the true intention of the policy makers, but the commercial aspect has its own twist.

The Obama administration basicly said to the airlines well if you want to abide okay we won't stop you. The airlines scratched there heads and suddenly had visions of KLA007 when a Russian fighter downed a commercial liner. So the airlines decided that with the lives of hundreds per flight ,and the possibility of loosing business if the Chinese government decided to back the ADIZ with pulling licensing of routes in and out The PRC something that could cost them millions in revenues. They decided to abide.

 

[Equation]

The Obama administration basicly said to the airlines well if you want to abide okay we won't stop you. The airlines scratched there heads and suddenly had visions of KLA007 when a Russian fighter downed a commercial liner. So the airlines decided that with the lives of hundreds per flight ,and the possibility of loosing business if the Chinese government decided to back the ADIZ with pulling licensing of routes in and out The PRC something that could cost them millions in revenues. They decided to abide.

On top of that it's the Holiday season just started and thousands of flights per day in and out of China to the US translates billions of dollars of cargo goods that FedEx, UPS, and others are not willing to risk losing business in China and in East Asia as well.

 

[Blackstone]

What does something like 'consulting' - in fact saying 'we're establishing our ADIZ' (that must be some new way of making 'consultations') - have to do with strenghtening hold on Diaoyu while air forces of any given country in region don't care about that? It's only going to bother civilian planes.

Once the US advised her civilian airlines to follow China's rule, most countries not named Japan will either follow either suit, or remain silent ( and silence means acquiescence). The result is China's claim on the Diaoyu islands is stronger after ADIZ than before.