A true rational response. I totally believe that the US has some of the best strategists and those decades of cold war experiences should have made them very good at handling this kind of stuff. They know exactly what cards to play and to what extent sjould it be played. The B52s were a perfect example. However I think there is a gap between US national interests and Japanese national interests in the East Sea ADIZ as well as the Diaoyu dispute. The US has way more urgent and important matters both at home and overseas. Obamacare is a mess and economy is not doing very well. The ME is a mess as well and Assad is still at power after more than two years. A few rocks in the middle of nowhere is not really what US is interested. But they do need to pacify Japan and show support for their ally in the region, that is all that matters. China should make use of this gap. Give the Yankees enough face and room to manipulate things around, at the same time slowly and steadily push Japan to the negotiation table. Strengthen cooperations especially economic ties with regional countries such as the ASEAN and Korea, which we have already been doing. The ADIZ is just another step in this direction of 'cornering Japan'. Of course the goal is not to launch a war or shoot down planes, that would be unreasonable, the goal is to force them to admit there is indeed a dispute and we need to sit down and talk about it.
East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone
- Thread starter joshuatree
- Start date
- Status
A true rational response. I totally believe that the US has some of the best strategists and those decades of cold war experiences should have made them very good at handling this kind of stuff. They know exactly what cards to play and to what extent sjould it be played. The B52s were a perfect example. However I think there is a gap between US national interests and Japanese national interests in the East Sea ADIZ as well as the Diaoyu dispute. The US has way more urgent and important matters both at home and overseas. Obamacare is a mess and economy is not doing very well. The ME is a mess as well and Assad is still at power after more than two years. A few rocks in the middle of nowhere is not really what US is interested. But they do need to pacify Japan and show support for their ally in the region, that is all that matters. China should make use of this gap. Give the Yankees enough face and room to manipulate things around, at the same time slowly and steadily push Japan to the negotiation table. Strengthen cooperations especially economic ties with regional countries such as the ASEAN and Korea, which we have already been doing. The ADIZ is just another step in this direction of 'cornering Japan'. Of course the goal is not to launch a war or shoot down planes, that would be unreasonable, the goal is to force them to admit there is indeed a dispute and we need to sit down and talk about it.
Where do you work? I ask because you seem to know what others don't, like US and Chinese startegies over Eastern Asia. I know there are some knowledgeable users posting around here who had access to the strictly confidential sources like PLAN videos of Japanese warship manouvering between Chinese ships during naval drill and the likes of that so I respect and acknowledge those users...
Mr T
Senior Member
I think I'd have to respectfully disagree with your views. Although I have no idea what China was expecting, the general reaction from outside China has been negative. It even managed to annoy South Korea. So unless China's intention was to generally irritate its neighbours, its actions can't be seen as a victory. Maybe if it was just designed to play to the Chinese public to pretend they're doing something, I could see the reason behind it - but then a lot of Chinese netizens have been demanding it's not enough and that aircraft be shot down for not following procedure. Also, not caring at all how other countries reacted would be somewhat reckless.
And the US has made it quite clear that it doesn't agree with China. It doesn't need to station aircraft in the area 24/7 to show it has made its point.
Whilst other countries' military aircraft don't comply with the procedure China has set down for this area, it only exists on paper, I'm afraid.
Last edited:
A nation's ADIZ only exists on paper. No other opposing nation will ever follow another nation's ADIZ guidelines.
Technically speaking, if a nation says an ADIZ exists then it exists. Military aircraft of other nations are technically required to adhere to the rules but most do not. That doesn't invalidate the ADIZ.
furthermore given the vast majority of civil airlines are giving china their flight plans they clearly acknowledge the ADIZ too. Japan has even asked china to roll back their ADIZ. Their planes aren't adhering to the rules obviously but they clearly acknowledge its exitstence.
Clearly the US doesn't agree, but we also agree that the US response could have been much more forceful. I'm not suggesting that indiates weakness, but I think what Sampanviking meant was that it was a measured response.
Well everything China does to improve its military capabilities and readiness annoys its neighbours, it's the unfortunate byproduct of bordering so many different small countries and having both a massive obsolete military that needs modernizing along with the perception that "dictatorships" are apparently more inclined to start wars.
WRT south korea, China actually forewarned South Korea a few days before it announced its ADIZ. South Korea still are annoyed of course, as they would be, but China certainly extended them a small olive branch of sorts.
Like I said, every act China does would annoy its neighbours due to its sheer position and size. If China does a naval exercise it's seen as sabre rattling, if China tests a new missile or fighter, it's seen as muscle flexing, if China sets up an ADIZ, it's a change of status quo.
Chinese netizens are as nationalistic as ones in the west. You can find western forums less professional than this one and twitter accounts calling for all kinds of destructive acts against various perceived enemies of the US if you go looking for it, however such extremes usually don't reflect the average opinion.
The average opinion in China does overwhelmingly support the ADIZ, however.
So I'm not really sure what you disagree with in Sampanviking's statement.
Did China mishandle the first day with the B-52s? I see no indication that you think they did. The US "challenged" the ADIZ, but they were so far out it probably wasn't even worth sendign planes up to meet them. Still, I wouldn't hold it against people if they score that as a small propaganda victory.
Did US support for Japan live up to Japan's expectations? Well, US media is certainly championing support for Japan, but once you look through that veil, the US only sent a couple of their oldest and least survivable bombers, unarmed on the far edge of the ADIZ.
Compared to past US "warning" acts such as sailing two carriers near the taiwan strait in the third taiwan strait crisis, this response is almost negligible.
---
I quite seriously disagree with you if you think the ADIZ's only achievements has been to piss off China's neighbours and to inflame nationalistic netizens.
This thread has already cycled through the same points as to why this ADIZ is a net positive gain for China time and again.
I posted what I think is quite an exhaustive analysis many pages back:
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/air-force/east-china-sea-air-defense-id-zone-26-6653.html#post257041
Last edited:
Dude. That is flamebait material.
What you're suggesting is for China to attack a city with the purpose of attacking the civilian populace. That's basically like lobbing a nuclear tipped MRBM at tokyo. Let's keep our heads in reality.
Last edited by a moderator:
As a Chinese and no matter how much I dislike or even hate Japan and its government for historical reasons. I STRONGLY detest such a move. I'm not sure about the technical details but attack civilian targets on purpose is clearly a breach of international law no matter what. Let alone nuclear reactors which I would say is an inhumane action. It will HUGELY damage Chinese reputation and lead to another war once Japan revives. The vicious cycle begins and there is no ending. One reason why Germany started the second world war was because the allied powers made Germans lost their land, resources and national pride. One reason why many Chinese people still hate Japan was also because the Japanese doings during WW2 was too miserable.
Anyway we don't have to do this kind of crazy stuff to win the war.
Sorry this is getting off track. Because I feel this is very serious issue so I had to say what I want to say. Sorry.
Last edited by a moderator:
airsuperiority
Captain
No I think it's important you expressed this thought. An eye for an eye makes the world blind, and letting historical grudges and sensational nationalism blind us is surely a disaster.
Sorry to disappoint you but I am no insider.I'm not even working yet, not in University yet, although pretty close.
What I have posted above was purely personal opinions and logical reasoning based on open source facts and news. If you detect any serious problem with it we can always openly and calmly discuss under forum rules as long as it's related to this thread.
Actions speak louder than words. There's always tonnes of information contained within every single action the countries do. As outsiders we may.not know what exactly are the next steps but I believe as long as we don't allow our pride and biases blind us, we can still get a clear picture of what is going on.
If I'm reading this right, you're challenging his authority on the subject rather than addressing the questions he poses.
That's an ad hominem fallacy. Few of us are insiders, or even individuals working in the relevant industries that we discuss on this forum, but so long as reasoning and inferences are logical they are all valid points that can be challenged if you have a better response.
Wow. there is so much fail in this statement. I dun even know why blitzo bothered to enlighten him.
- Status