East China Sea Air Defense ID Zone

[thunderchief]

If you see it in the past, when China send drones into the area, Japan threaten to shoot it down over the ADIZ airspace. So by your logic above, Japan cannot intercept as it is part of "free" navigation...you cannot have one country intercept aircraft from other countries right?

Let's make thing clear : Japan has right to scramble jets and to identify unknown aircraft in international airspace . It doesn't have right to open fire at it (unless attacked of course) , to threaten it , to cross its flightpath and endanger it .
Same goes for China , US or any other country .

 

[Jeff Head]

BEIJING (AP) — China said it sent warplanes into its newly declared maritime air defense zone days after the U.S., South Korea and Japan all sent flights through the airspace in broadening defiance of rules Beijing says it has imposed over the East China Sea.

China's air force on Thursday sent several fighter jets and an early warning aircraft on normal air patrols in the zone, the Xinhua agency reported, citing air force spokesman Shen Jinke.

The report did not specify exactly when the flights were sent or whether they had encountered foreign military aircraft. The United States, Japan and South Korea have said they have sent military or coast guard flights through the zone without encountering any Chinese response since Beijing announced its creation last week.

The statements of the press and so-called analysts aside, IMHO, the Chinese have simply announced an ADIZ. There is nothing too peculiar about that.

The Chinese have every right to do so, and will monitor according to their own plans.

My personal opinion is that as long as they monitor it with their aircraft (the will need AWACS, refueling, and fighters to do so), and identify any aircraft flying an aggressive profile towards the PRC or its sensitive areas, there will be no issue. As they come up with their policy on how to do this, they will learn and other nations will learn what those policies are and see that the Chinese request ID on aircraft doing so, and then intercept and "escort" aircraft flying such profiles who do not.

That is a normal thing and China will develop its policy and assets to correspond with that.

If however, it is used to aggressively force an issue regarding those islands (which I do not believe is the PRC's intent), then it will become an issue as China identifies and makes demands of aircraft not being aggressive towards China itself. That will lead to issues.

But, I think it is important to note that China has already changed the status quo be simply creating this zone where they have, and there is really nothing anyone can do about it. They are not going to "turn it off."

In terms of patrols to help in the furtherance of the goals that I outlined above, they will now be making regular patrols throughout the area to monitoring it. If things go along relatively calmly, despite war drums and sensationalism by the press and any others, it will settle down and smooth out to about what I have described and that will be the "new norm."

The US, Japan, and Korea's so-called "embarrassing" of the PRC are nothing of the sort. They are simply those nations seeking to discover what the limits are, and how the PRC plans to administer it...to either the former, or the latter.

To date, everything I have read indicates it is the former. For example, "We have this ADIZ now, if you are flying an aggressive or suspicious flight profile in the area, expect to be contacted and shadowed/escorted and told to turn back or suffer increasing consequences. Otherwise, we'll leave you pretty much alone."

 

[solarz]

The statements of the press and so-called analysts aside, IMHO, the Chinese have simply announced an ADIZ. There is nothing too peculiar about that.

The Chinese have every right to do so, and will monitor according to their own plans.

My personal opinion is that as long as they monitor it with their aircraft (the will need AWACS, refueling, and fighters to do so), and identify any aircraft flying an aggressive profile towards the PRC or its sensitive areas, there will be no issue. As they come up with their policy on how to do this, they will learn and other nations will learn what those policies are and see that the Chinese request ID on aircraft doing so, and then intercept and "escort" aircraft flying such profiles who do not.

That is a normal thing and China will develop its policy and assets to correspond with that.

If however, it is used to aggressively force an issue regarding those islands (which I do not believe is the PRC's intent), then it will become an issue as China identifies and makes demands of aircraft not being aggressive towards China itself.
That will lead to issues.

But, I think it is important to note that China has already changed the status quo be simply creating this zone where they have, and there is really nothing anyone can do about it. They are not going to "turn it off."

In terms of patrols to help in the furtherance of the goals that I outlined above, they will now be making regular patrols throughout the area to monitoring it. If things go along relatively calmly, despite war drums and sensationalism by the press and any others, it will settle down and smooth out to about what I have described and that will be the "new norm."

The US, Japan, and Korea's so-called "embarrassing" of the PRC are nothing of the sort. They are simply those nations seeking to discover what the limits are, and how the PRC plans to administer it...to either the former, or the latter.

To date, everything I have read indicates it is the former. For example, "We have this ADIZ now, if you are flying an aggressive or suspicious flight profile in the area, expect to be contacted and shadowed/escorted and told to turn back or suffer increasing consequences. Otherwise, we'll leave you pretty much alone."

I haven't read through the entire thread, so I don't know if this has been brought up before.

The new Chinese ADIZ encompasses the Diaoyu Islands. Previously, I believe Chinese warplanes have avoided approaching within 12 nm of Diaoyu in order to avoid escalation.

However, now that the ADIZ wholly encompasses those islands, the Chinese could fly over them (thus entering Japanese airspace according to the Japanese view) and still claim to be simply patrolling their ADIZ.

I wonder what the Japanese will say in response to this new reality?

 

[mr.bean]

The statements of the press and so-called analysts aside, IMHO, the Chinese have simply announced an ADIZ. There is nothing too peculiar about that.

The Chinese have every right to do so, and will monitor according to their own plans.

My personal opinion is that as long as they monitor it with their aircraft (the will need AWACS, refueling, and fighters to do so), and identify any aircraft flying an aggressive profile towards the PRC or its sensitive areas, there will be no issue. As they come up with their policy on how to do this, they will learn and other nations will learn what those policies are and see that the Chinese request ID on aircraft doing so, and then intercept and "escort" aircraft flying such profiles who do not.

That is a normal thing and China will develop its policy and assets to correspond with that.

If however, it is used to aggressively force an issue regarding those islands (which I do not believe is the PRC's intent), then it will become an issue as China identifies and makes demands of aircraft not being aggressive towards China itself.
That will lead to issues.

But, I think it is important to note that China has already changed the status quo be simply creating this zone where they have, and there is really nothing anyone can do about it. They are not going to "turn it off."

In terms of patrols to help in the furtherance of the goals that I outlined above, they will now be making regular patrols throughout the area to monitoring it. If things go along relatively calmly, despite war drums and sensationalism by the press and any others, it will settle down and smooth out to about what I have described and that will be the "new norm."

The US, Japan, and Korea's so-called "embarrassing" of the PRC are nothing of the sort. They are simply those nations seeking to discover what the limits are, and how the PRC plans to administer it...to either the former, or the latter.

To date, everything I have read indicates it is the former. For example, "We have this ADIZ now, if you are flying an aggressive or suspicious flight profile in the area, expect to be contacted and shadowed/escorted and told to turn back or suffer increasing consequences. Otherwise, we'll leave you pretty much alone."

as regards to the 'islands' disputes, japan has lost another round over there. prior to the ADIZ thing no Chinese aircraft civilian nor military fly over or inside that 12 mile radius. the Chinese kept their claims strictly verbal but japan regularly have planes flying there. last time Chinese marine surveillance flew a tiny Y-12 prop plane NEAR (it did not enter) the diaoyutai islands the Japanese scrambled 8 F-15's to intercept it. from now on it will be very different. we should expect lots of Chinese aircraft both civilian coast guard and military to be flying in and over the diaoyutai islands. so it will be both Chinese and Japanese planes there. that changes the status quo just like how we now have Chinese coast guard ships regularly patrolling those waters when they never did prior to this island purchase thing by the Japanese.

 

[Rutim]

However, now that the ADIZ wholly encompasses those islands, the Chinese could fly over them (thus entering Japanese airspace according to the Japanese view) and still claim to be simply patrolling their ADIZ.

Not only that but Ieodo as well. It's only a matter of time when South Korea will extend KADIZ to include them as there's some kind of internal push for this move. China insists on saying there's no dispute yet including it in their ADIZ means that they don't recognize it as South Korean piece of underwater rock and the installation there as part of South Korea.

as regards to the 'islands' disputes, japan has lost another round over there. prior to the ADIZ thing no Chinese aircraft civilian nor military fly over or inside that 12 mile radius.

Yes there was. 15 km south off Uotsuri Island.

 

[port_08]

I don't think US allow foreign "military" plane into their ADIZ, that will be aggression. Similar, this newly setup ADIZ if according to "international law" (which only some nation establish like Japan, China, US, Korea, Canada ..) Military planes flying into ADIZ area will be constitute as act of aggression and warrant scrambling of jets.

Maybe we see now China flying 2 jets, next time, 4 jets, and the next 8 jets and so on. Maybe after that 16 jets. Next year Airforce budget increase 10% to make more jets.

So, overall there will be a lot of jets flying here and there. These are all true senarios that are playing out now. Japan scrambling what 10 jets? US scramble couple more, China scrambling some as well. Each day a lot of jets flying and "testing" each other.

So what Abe say is true, there is heighten risk. No side wants to back down now. So, is just matter of numbers and scrambling each day.

For PLA, I think they learn new things, I'm not sure in their history they practice these kind of scrambling before and using surveillance plan and such doctrines. Its good training and tutorial, probably become a norm later. They are learning how to operate carrier...and dare I say, this ADIZ is also a "first" for them. They learn how to operate ADIZ as well.

I think it won't be long SCS there will establish new ADIZ, but it would be interesting how the SCS ADIZ would look like. I'm not sure, it could be a timing.

I foresee SCS ADIZ soon, judging many ASEAN fighting arguing over the area, other navy ship coming in and going to put a stake there. China would perhaps one day declare ADIZ over their Nine Dash Line claim.....it is waiting for the timing only. Its like, ok, I'm fed up now....between dove and hawk....wine or poison....which u prefer, then they just declare another zone there as well. Probably 1 carrier deploy there like Liaoning in the sea, that will be use to enforce the SCS ADIZ. Their Ministry of DEfence already said "when necessary preparation is complete".....so, once their carrier ready....then they will announce additional ADIZ. I think in 5 years time.

 

[port_08]

Not only that but Ieodo as well. It's only a matter of time when South Korea will extend KADIZ to include them as there's some kind of internal push for this move. China insists on saying there's no dispute yet including it in their ADIZ means that they don't recognize it as South Korean piece of underwater rock and the installation there as part of South Korea.

Yes, Korea probably will announce extension, but only when their relationship with China sour. So far, they are riding the good relation at the moment on "common" grievances against Japan. I'm sure, one day, when their relationship is on the rocks...like the Leodo rocks....then you see Korea will make these kind of move like KADIZ extension.

 

[Blackstone]

Not only that but Ieodo as well. It's only a matter of time when South Korea will extend KADIZ to include them as there's some kind of internal push for this move. China insists on saying there's no dispute yet including it in their ADIZ means that they don't recognize it as South Korean piece of underwater rock and the installation there as part of South Korea.Yes there was. 15 km south off Uotsuri Island.

Well, talking out of both sides of one's mouth is a perk of great powers, but you're right about China should offer an olive branch to ROC and admit there're disputes over the island. Doing so would smooth ruffled feathers with South Korea and put the spotlight back on Japan.

 

[Blackstone]

According to Yonhap News, China notified S. Korea of her impending ADIZ before the fact-

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BEIJING, Nov. 25 (Yonhap) -- China informed South Korea of its new air defense zone over the East China Sea days before it publicly declared the new zone that partly overlaps with South Korea's own zone, a potential dispute between the two neighboring counties, a Seoul diplomatic source in Beijing said Monday.

South Korea has conveyed its stance of "regret" to China through a diplomatic channel and the two sides were willing to discuss the issue in a "friendly manner," the source said on the condition of anonymity.

...

It's unlikely South Korea would keep the US in the dark, as an American Enterprise Institute article pondered-

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...

On the other hand, if Seoul did alert Washington to the coming ADIZ announcement, why was Washington caught by surprise? Was the administration so focused on securing a deal with Iran that news of other impending problems—and the ADIZ is no minor blip on the radar—was either withheld from senior officials or not given the attention by those officials that it really deserved?

It could be China spoke to the US and to ROK about the new ADIZ weeks (maybe months?) before the fact, and once the US and ROC leaders realized they couldn't dissuade China, they did the next best thing by staging an elaborate Kabuki dance to mollify Japan and to politic their own citizens. Since China's ADIZ announcement, we've seen well chosen diplomatic phrases and some saber rattling, but commerce and trade will continue to increase between all parties, and everyone in the region will accept the new status quo.

 

[Jeff Head]

Japanese CGI. Sorry if already uploaded.

IJN Hyuga is a fine ship, and the sinking Liaoning is a nice touch for domestic marketing.

Fu, you are new...Blackstone, you know better. Can it. Don't post, and then gen up war mongering/provocative/inflammatory posts. A picture of a 1/700 scale model of the Hyuga has NOTHING to do with this ADIZ. We are trying to maintain a professional forum.

Both posts removed.

STOP with the provocative posts.

Stick to the topic, or there will be suspensions. Last warning.