Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Deino

Lieutenant General
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But even if that bird finally has arrived at Xi'an-Yanliang, I don't understand why they had to transfer that thing to Xi'an partially completed to do the structural tests ??? :confused:
Is this impossible at SAC ??? ... and a maiden flight at SAC is surely possible too.

As such IMO the biggest question is that WHY ?? What was so important, that it can't be done at Shenyang ??

Was it only a marketing-plot to take away the crowd from CHengdu and its J-20 (at least I hope so) ?

Deino
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
Hi guys ... back from school ! Any news, where the convoi is now ? Has it arrived and why no more photos within the last week ???




Honestly, but I think its much too early to say the PLAAF will or won't have it. So far we are not even sure what it is for sure, it did not even fly ...

Besides that, a navalised J-20 - at least IMO - is completely nonsense ....

Deino

The consensus among military insiders is that the PLAAF will not induct it, but the PLAN will instead. Shenyang has another twin engine fighter under development that will complement the J-20, according to them.

---------- Post added at 12:52 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:50 PM ----------

PLAAF will not have it for the same reason that they didn't choose MiG-29 -- short legged. If PLAAF want a cheaper alternative to J-20, they could always go for J-20 with downgrade avionics.

The J-20 with downgraded avionics is also believed to be in development, but that will most likely compete with the J-21 for the PLAN contract.
 

Deino

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The consensus among military insiders is that the PLAAF will not induct it, but the PLAN will instead. Shenyang has another twin engine fighter under development that will complement the J-20, according to them.

But isn't this the rumoured J-19 (failed submission to the XXJ), which evolved into a striker in competition to the JH-7B/JH-XX ?
 

SinoSoldier

Colonel
If it is for export only I find it dubious since this would be out of reach for most of China's customers. The only way for China to penetrate the market capable of buying this is to actually have it face off and win with the fighters that sell. It has to go up against Western fighters. How's that going to happen? That's either selling to a country that has them if they could get that to happen in the first place or a real war situation. The big customers would be the Arabs oil states. But let's face it. When they buy there's a bit of brand name factor involved and China doesn't have that. I remember there was a Chinese guy in the US trying to sell bottled water from China. He was going for the exotic maybe medicinal angle. That's not what people think of when it comes to water from China. Of course I never heard about the water again.

I wouldn't be surprised if it appears at future defense exhibitions all over the world. If it loses the PLAN contract against the Chengdu J-2X, then the project will run on fumes just like the MiG-35 is right now. After all, its only competitors in the same niche would be the F-35 and F-15SE.

---------- Post added at 12:57 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:54 PM ----------

But isn't this the rumoured J-19 (failed submission to the XXJ), which evolved into a striker in competition to the JH-7B/JH-XX ?

Honestly, trying to study the aircraft development history is like studying German music history. But jokes aside, it is believed that they have a new design in their screens, one with twin WS-15 engines, according to Huzhigeng from CAC. I believe what they are trying to do is to go for a conventional layout with enough range and avionics prominence to make a good multirole partner for the J-20.

The J-20 is believed to be unable to carry anti ship missiles and heavy air to ground weaponry, so it would make sense for Shenyang to make a multirole fighter to fill that gap.
 

hmmwv

Junior Member
But even if that bird finally has arrived at Xi'an-Yanliang, I don't understand why they had to transfer that thing to Xi'an partially completed to do the structural tests ??? :confused:
Is this impossible at SAC ??? ... and a maiden flight at SAC is surely possible too.

As such IMO the biggest question is that WHY ?? What was so important, that it can't be done at Shenyang ??

Was it only a marketing-plot to take away the crowd from CHengdu and its J-20 (at least I hope so) ?

Deino

Now it's worth the time to find out exactly what 623rd Institute's new Yanliang facility has that other places such as 601st lack. I think SAC/601 has at least basic static testing capabilities, but maybe they can't test air frame that's possibly made with large amount of composites or exotic metal? The other factor take into consideration is that SAC hasn't made a entirely new plane in years, things such as J11 and J15 have already been static tested in their original forms in Russia, in contrast XAC, CAC, and GAC have all made brand new jets in the past 20 years.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
But even if that bird finally has arrived at Xi'an-Yanliang, I don't understand why they had to transfer that thing to Xi'an partially completed to do the structural tests ??? :confused:
Is this impossible at SAC ??? ... and a maiden flight at SAC is surely possible too.

As such IMO the biggest question is that WHY ?? What was so important, that it can't be done at Shenyang ??

Was it only a marketing-plot to take away the crowd from CHengdu and its J-20 (at least I hope so) ?

Deino

That's a good question, and I don't really buy the structural testing explanation, especially if this is supposed to be the new Naval carrier fighter.

SAC managed just fine with the structural testing for the J15, and if this is a naval fighter, surely the specialized equipment and expertise developed during the J15 programme would be of more direct use rather than anything Xi'an would have.

However, with the amount of time, effort and disruption (hence cost) this move has caused, you would have to assume that they did it for a very good reason and not merely as a publicity stunt. The tight security surrounding the transportation would also seem to contradict suggestions that this was all done for show.

Right now, I can only think of three explanations for why they decided to ship this bird like this half way across the country.

1) The PLAAF higher-ups have not changed their ways as much as we thought/hoped, and were quietly dismayed by the very public spectacle the J20 test flight and programme has turned into.

As such, this is a little bit of back to the old way of doing things, with them wanting the first flight to be conducted somewhere far less public than SAC's facilities where they would keep a better eye on proceedings.

2) Instead of directly competing for JHXX striker contract with XAC, SAC and XAC are teaming up to make a joint offering to better their odds of beating CAC's design.

This would make a lot of sense as CAC is red hot right now, and have some extremely talented people doing some amazing stuff, so neither SAC or XAC must fancy their chances much of being able to better whatever CAC can come up with. Especially since CAC will have the advantage of massive PLAAF funding from the J20, and a lot of the systems and technologies developed for the J20 could be directly applied to a new medium weight design much like how the JF17 benefitted massively from the J10 programme.

With rumors that SAC is funding their new fighter out of their own pocket, teaming up with XAC could also have a financial element, as developing a 5th gen fighter is pretty expensive so SAC may feel better with someone else paying part of the tab instead of them footing the whole bill alone.

However, with teaming up also comes work share and co-operation. XAC won't go along with it if it means SAC gets all the work and they just end up writing a very large cheque.

So, this could be part of the JV terms that SAC sends a prototype to XAC and they conduct flight testing at the same time (but co-ordinate their efforts of course).

The partially complete nature of the airframe would thus be explained by the remaining parts being the responsibility of XAC, and as such have been manufactured at XAC and the plane will complete it's assembly at XAC's plant.

The missing components for SAC's prototype could easily have been transported the other way, but would not have been noticed as those parts would be small enough to be easily concealable or maybe even air freighted over.

3) This is a massive smoke screen designed to focus the world's intelligence agencies' attention on this convoy so the real deal could happen somewhere else without their notice.
 
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no_name

Colonel
Maybe they also want to do some comparison together with CAC's 2001 over at yanliang?

Some of the police vans could be carrying people from SAC too.
 
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i.e.

Senior Member
But even if that bird finally has arrived at Xi'an-Yanliang, I don't understand why they had to transfer that thing to Xi'an partially completed to do the structural tests ??? :confused:
Is this impossible at SAC ??? ... and a maiden flight at SAC is surely possible too.

As such IMO the biggest question is that WHY ?? What was so important, that it can't be done at Shenyang ??

Was it only a marketing-plot to take away the crowd from CHengdu and its J-20 (at least I hope so) ?

Deino


because in the chinese aviation industry, the entire industry is "one" corporation. the structural test experties are all concentrated in Yanliang. They did every major structural test on every major aircraft program since early days.

Yes the maiden flight will be at Shenyang, then the detailed flight test program will be conducted and organized with CFTE.

for example, actually I have a very technical flight test book which is writen by the former Chief Engineer at CFTE, Zhou Ziquan, he happen also to be the J-10's chief flight test engineer. very good and detailed references on the details of flight test egnineering. but he is not from Chengdu. or part of CAC. no, he is CFTE.

the system is partially similar to the soviet system where zhukovsky flight test center conducted most of the "state" flight test. although MiG and Sukhoi and Tupolev etc also has their own experts.


btw,

J-10 was hualed to Yanliang not unlike this thing too for the structural tests. and so was Y-10.
My father was actually part of the team that went to Yanliang to help conduct the structual tests on Y-10.

---------- Post added at 08:58 PM ---------- Previous post was at 08:50 PM ----------

If it is for export only I find it dubious since this would be out of reach for most of China's customers. .


well, it can be anything. but its only customer in china has not officially signed any contract of funded this developement. so who is buying it? must be for export. :p.

you know what i mean. build it and they will come....
 
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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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Love how people are still calling this L-15 and in denial of the whole thing on other forums. The airframe is so un-L15 like that it isn't even funny.
 
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