Whenever there’s a crisis around the world, one of the first orders issued in Washington is to dispatch the closest aircraft carrier, as a show of American strength.
But the Navy may have to rethink the aircraft carrier as the centerpiece of its Pacific fleet, as China flexes its military might with a “carrier killer” missile and its first stealth jet fighter.
Chinese President Hu Jintao is scheduled to arrive Wednesday for a state visit with President Barack Obama. In advance of that meeting, the Chinese leader told American newspapers that both sides should “abandon the zero-sum Cold War mentality,” while Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said last week “distrust lingers on both sides.”
The missile, whose existence was confirmed last month by the head of U.S. Pacific Command, reportedly would be able to hit a moving flat-top from 900 miles away. China tested its J-20 stealth jet in a very public way last week as Defense Secretary Robert Gates was making a goodwill visit.
“Will this change how the Navy operates? The Navy has to take this into account. That means new training, new doctrine maybe. It may mean rethinking what aircraft carriers look like,” said Dean Cheng, a China scholar at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C.
“What is the purpose of an aircraft carrier? To launch airplanes. What is the purpose of the airplanes? To do bombing and air superiority. Some of those things perhaps may be done by other means,” Cheng said.
With the San Diego-based aircraft carrier Carl Vinson parked at Busan, South Korea, last week — just around the tip of the Korean peninsula from mainland China — the issue is up close and personal for Navy families.
The carrier George Washington, based in Japan, took part in two show-of-force exercises in the Asian Pacific last year in response to North Korea reportedly sinking a South Korean ship and shelling a South Korean island.
At issue: Will the missile make the United States hesitant to send a carrier into international waters near China? And, if this so-called anti-access strategy by China works, would the United States lose some ability to defend its allies South Korea, Taiwan and Japan?
Bernard Cole, a professor of international history at the Naval War College, said it would be something the Navy would have to weigh.
“It’s not going to be a decision maker by itself, but it would be a factor to be considered,” said Cole, an expert on the Chinese navy.
“It would certainly be a factor influencing where we station our aircraft carriers, and that in turn would affect the way we operate aircraft off carriers,” he said. “Obviously, the longer the range, the more factors with respect to fuel have to be considered.”
Analysts say the Chinese stealth fighter wouldn’t be as much of a threat to the carrier itself. But it could distract a carrier’s own aircraft and take their attention away from protecting the ship.
A couple of retired Navy admirals with deep experience in the Pacific region say it’s far too soon to say the carrier’s reign is over.
“If you’re asking me, ‘Are carriers obsolete?’ the answer is no, I don’t think so at all,” said retired Vice Adm. Paul McCarthy, who commanded the Navy’s Seventh Fleet in Japan from 1985 to 1986 and now lives in Coronado.
“Until you can really prove (the Chinese have) something and it’s very evident, and you can’t come up with a counter arrangement, why, the carrier is still the carrier,” he said.
The military has eyed China's growing weapons cache with concern for several years. Then, last month, Adm. Robert Willard, the four-star Pacific Command chief, confirmed that the Chinese “Dong Feng 21D” missile has reached the operational stage, though it still probably needs several years of testing.
This capability would be unprecedented for the Chinese. The nation, whose military has been growing in tandem with its economic muscle, already has ballistic missiles. But a missile launched from land that can hit a sea target moving at 30 knots is a whole new kettle of fish.
The Navy isn’t offering any specifics on how it plans to counter the Chinese missile threat. Asked whether the Navy will reposition its ships in response, Vice Adm. David Dorsett, deputy chief of naval operations, recently told a defense writers group that the sea service is “assessing” and “planning.”
The Navy has been bulking up its ballistic missile defense program in recent years. This system, aboard some U.S. destroyers and cruisers, uses sophisticated radar to track and shoot enemy missiles out of the air. Some ships on “battleship row” at San Diego Naval Station are equipped with the upgraded equipment.
But some experts say the missile threat could be posturing on China’s part. They question whether China can pull off the technology.
“It’s very difficult to target a moving ship,” said retired Adm. James Lyons, who commanded the U.S. Pacific Fleet in 1987.
The Navy has anticipated the potential rising threat in Asia by shifting more of its fleet to the Pacific, with San Diego as its biggest hub on the West Coast.
The carrier, which earned its reputation against Japan during World War II, has been largely unchallenged on the seas in the past decade.
Measuring more than 1,000 feet, it carries more than 60 jets and helicopters in its hangar bay and on its flight deck. Sailors like to say a flat-top brings 90,000 tons of diplomacy to any situation.
The Navy currently has 11 carriers in service, including two stationed in San Diego. The 12th, the first of a new class named for former President Gerald R. Ford, will be launched in 2015 at a cost of $8 billion.
It’s a tradition the Navy holds dear. And a vessel that people have mistakenly tried to write epitaphs for in the past, said Cheng of the Heritage Foundation.
“As the saying goes, the safest place for a ship is in the harbor,” he said. “But that’s not why you build ships.”