2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

horse

Brigadier
Registered Member
Read a Ron Unz article, saying that with the MOU signed, then cancelled, that during that time, enough oil got out that it bought time.

Originally, it was though that by mid-July, if no oil was coming from the Straits of Hormuz, not to be confused with the Gays of Hormuz, then the world economic is headed for a depression in the worst case scenario.

Since oil came out of the Persian Gulf, this mid-July deadline where there was going to be no more oil in the storage tanks, got extended to maybe late August to September. In essence, all this negotiating bought the Americans some time.

So the war is on again, apparently. Who knows.

The reason why Trump wants another round, is explained in this video, which could be true. Who knows.

So, I think I will stick to that story to what to believe, that they negotiated to buy some time, to figure out what they want to do next, which logical, because they're Americans. They always at war.

War is as American as apple pie.

Google AI.
The phrase you are referencing is a variation of the famous political quote, "Violence is as American as cherry pie," which was coined by Civil Rights activist and Black Power militant H. Rap Brown (now known as Jamil Abdullah Al-Amin) during a press conference in July 1967. Over the decades, public figures, authors, and cultural commentators have frequently swapped "cherry pie" for "apple pie" when discussing the deeply embedded history of violence in the United States. [
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Professor Robert Pape


Jul 15, 2026
 

AlexYe

Senior Member
Registered Member
Read a Ron Unz article, saying that with the MOU signed, then cancelled, that during that time, enough oil got out that it bought time.

Originally, it was though that by mid-July, if no oil was coming from the Straits of Hormuz, not to be confused with the Gays of Hormuz, then the world economic is headed for a depression in the worst case scenario.

Since oil came out of the Persian Gulf, this mid-July deadline where there was going to be no more oil in the storage tanks, got extended to maybe late August to September. In essence, all this negotiating bought the Americans some time.

So the war is on again, apparently. Who knows.

The reason why Trump wants another round, is explained in this video, which could be true. Who knows.

So, I think I will stick to that story to what to believe, that they negotiated to buy some time, to figure out what they want to do next, which logical, because they're Americans. They always at war.

War is as American as apple pie.

Google AI.
The phrase you are referencing is a variation of the famous political quote, "Violence is as American as cherry pie," which was coined by Civil Rights activist and Black Power militant H. Rap Brown (now known as Jamil Abdullah Al-Amin) during a press conference in July 1967. Over the decades, public figures, authors, and cultural commentators have frequently swapped "cherry pie" for "apple pie" when discussing the deeply embedded history of violence in the United States. [
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
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Professor Robert Pape


Jul 15, 2026
Most of the oil that came out during the limited time wasnt enough, reserves globally even in US were still going down, plus you gotta take into account travel/refinery time.
Travel from redsea to europe is 40 days for these tankers, then it will be refined and sent further along the chains.
And a big reason the oil didnt go crazy was thanks to China, they stopped importing oil completely but now


It seems the oil imports are rebounding and its gonna causes the situation to worsen faster.
Thing is what can they do in 1-1.5 month of additional time they couldnt before?
 

RobertC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Scenario in broad brushstrokes:

The American AI bubble pops. America's financialized economy spreads the contagion to other sectors weakened by private equity, crypto, etc and overseas to Europe just like the 2008 GFC. Except this time the rescue isn't coming. The US turns inward to heal its wounds: the Middle East is lost to Iran. The EU turns inwards to heal its wounds: Ukraine is lost to Russia. Elon Musk's empire is tottering. China offers a $2T rescue: Tesla, xAI, SpaceX and StarLink. Tesla and xAI would be gracefully wound down and closed. SpaceX and StarLink would continue under Chinese ownership but US citizen operations to comply with expected US government restrictions (StarShield would be spun off to US government operation and perhaps even ownership). And the world would be a better place...
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Read a Ron Unz article, saying that with the MOU signed, then cancelled, that during that time, enough oil got out that it bought time.

Originally, it was though that by mid-July, if no oil was coming from the Straits of Hormuz, not to be confused with the Gays of Hormuz, then the world economic is headed for a depression in the worst case scenario.

Since oil came out of the Persian Gulf, this mid-July deadline where there was going to be no more oil in the storage tanks, got extended to maybe late August to September. In essence, all this negotiating bought the Americans some time.

So the war is on again, apparently. Who knows.

The reason why Trump wants another round, is explained in this video, which could be true. Who knows.

So, I think I will stick to that story to what to believe, that they negotiated to buy some time, to figure out what they want to do next, which logical, because they're Americans. They always at war.

War is as American as apple pie.

Google AI.
The phrase you are referencing is a variation of the famous political quote, "Violence is as American as cherry pie," which was coined by Civil Rights activist and Black Power militant H. Rap Brown (now known as Jamil Abdullah Al-Amin) during a press conference in July 1967. Over the decades, public figures, authors, and cultural commentators have frequently swapped "cherry pie" for "apple pie" when discussing the deeply embedded history of violence in the United States. [
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
,
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,
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]


Professor Robert Pape


Jul 15, 2026

No, the amount of oil that got out was literally a few drops in the ocean of what is needed. The real reason the world economy hasn’t collapsed yet is because China quietly saved it by halving its oil imports to reduce world demand enough to just about hobble along with the reduced supply.

 
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