China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

[Confusionism]

Even without crisis.

TELs are on constant patrol just like SSBNs. There are now thousands of TELs in Chinese nuclear forces carry real and decoy missiles on patrol at all time. During crisis thousands more can be surged to further complicate finding and targeting !

No, this brief statement is riddled with many typical misconceptions about road-mobile ICBMs.

First of all, there aren’t thousands of ICBM TELs; China’s total nuclear arsenal is currently estimated at roughly 600+ warheads, and the number of operational ICBM launchers is far smaller.

Furthermore, China maintains a relatively low-alert nuclear posture, and much of its nuclear force is separated from its warheads during peacetime. If this is still the case today, it makes little sense for TELs to patrol constantly like SSBNs during peacetime.

The key difference between TELs and SSBNs is that SSBN is difficult to locate while submerged, whereas massive TELs traveling on roads will actually increase their chances of being detected through satellite, signals intelligence, and logistics tracking.

More importantly, ICBM TELs roaming around with nuclear warheads during peacetime would create enormous security, command-and-control, and logistical burdens for the PLARF.

if you want to patrol roads like SSBN, you’ll need a fairly large convoy to provide security, logistical support, and command and control. This, in turn, makes it a more obvious target.

 

[CMP]

First of all, there aren’t thousands of ICBM TELs; China’s total nuclear arsenal is currently estimated at roughly 600+ warheads, and the number of operational ICBM launchers is far smaller.

To convince anyone that the country that can manufacture anything like it's farming cabbages that "the number of operational ICBM launchers is far smaller" is going to take a lot more hard evidence than just your "trust me bro".

 

[Confusionism]

To convince anyone that the country that can manufacture anything like it's farming cabbages that "the number of operational ICBM launchers is far smaller" is going to take a lot more hard evidence than just your "trust me bro".

If you know the basics of how to use Google, you can find papers on the specific nature of PLARF, which provide a great deal of detailed evidence. In fact, the burden of proof is on you, because evidence can only prove “existence,” never “non-existence.”

Sure, you could produce more ICBM launchers, but what’s the point when your stockpile of nuclear warheads is limited? If you have any evidence that China’s nuclear arsenal has much more warheads, believe me, both Xi and Trump would be very eager to meet with you.

 

[CMP]

If you know the basics of how to use Google, you can find papers on the specific nature of PLARF, which provide a great deal of detailed evidence. In fact, the burden of proof is on you, because evidence can only prove “existence,” never “non-existence.”

Sure, you could produce more ICBM launchers, but what’s the point when your stockpile of nuclear warheads is limited? If you have any evidence that China’s nuclear arsenal has much more warheads, believe me, both Xi and Trump would be very eager to meet with you.

I haven't actually made any claims at all. Re-read my original post and you will see that. Just pointing out that your claim didn't come with any evidence and it's not up to anyone else to prove your claim for you, Google or not.

 

[Confusionism]

I haven't actually made any claims at all. Re-read my original post and you will see that. Just pointing out that your claim didn't come with any evidence and it's not up to anyone else to prove your claim for you, Google or not.

When I say China has over 600 nuclear weapons, that’s a widely accepted figure. As for the composition of China’s nuclear arsenal, if you exclude the number of silo-based and submarine-launched ICBMs, I’m saying the number of road-mobile ICBM TELs is far smaller than that.
Is there a problem with that? What evidence do you need?

But you’re questioning my argument based solely on China’s industrial capacity. Is that a sufficient reason? Should China produce far more ICBM TELs than it actually needs just because it has the capability to do so?

 

[CMP]

When I say China has over 600 nuclear weapons, that’s a widely accepted figure. As for the composition of China’s nuclear arsenal, if you exclude the number of silo-based and submarine-launched ICBMs, I’m saying the number of road-mobile ICBM TELs is far smaller than that.
Is there a problem with that? What evidence do you need?

But you’re questioning my argument based solely on China’s industrial capacity. Is that a sufficient reason? Should China produce far more ICBM TELs than it actually needs just because it has the capability to do so?

All I did was point out you didn't provide any evidence. If you can't link to any verifiable and trustworthy sources, are people just supposed to take your word for it?

 

[Confusionism]

All I did was point out you didn't provide any evidence. This isn't high school debate club.

You’re just trolling, aren’t you? When we discuss China’s nuclear capabilities, obviously we can only speculate based on publicly available data. Are you asking me to provide evidence of the exact number of China’s ICBM launchers? Are you sure you’re interested in having a rational discussion, rather than just indulging your own childish fantasies?

 

[CMP]

You’re just trolling, aren’t you? When we discuss China’s nuclear capabilities, obviously we can only speculate based on publicly available data. Are you asking me to provide evidence of the exact number of China’s ICBM launchers? Are you sure you’re interested in having a rational discussion, rather than just indulging your own childish fantasies?

You asked me what evidence would be needed and now you talk about publicly available data, but you still haven't actually cited anything at all. You should also notice that no one here has resorted to insults or sarcasm aside from yourself, and that should speak volumes. My comment about this not being debate club was a bit uncalled for though so I retract that.

 

[Confusionism]

You asked me what evidence would be needed and now you talk about publicly available data, but you still haven't actually cited anything at all. You should also notice that no one here has resorted to insults or sarcasm aside from yourself, and that should speak volumes. My comment about this not being debate club was a bit uncalled for though so I retract that.

From the very beginning,

To convince anyone that the country that can manufacture anything like it's farming cabbages that "the number of operational ICBM launchers is far smaller" is going to take a lot more hard evidence than just your "trust me bro".

Amnesia?

 

[CMP]

From the very beginning,

Amnesia?

Trust me bro is an insult now?