Chinese Economics Thread

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abenomics12345

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HighGround said:
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View attachment 174524

In a recent debate beteween Glenn and Brad, Brad actually admitted that his statement,

"Chinese automakers don't make any money at home" was actually based on Brad believing FT/NYT claims, rather than any examination of hard evidence (spreadsheets, financial reports, basic numbers...).

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Shameful for someone who takes himself so seriously. At least have the humility to apologize and re-orient your view? There is no shame in admitting you were wrong or approached something improperly. The shame is in keeping the charade going.

It's a good thread simply because Glenn puts out a lot of good numbers in analysis.

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Check it out, domestic margins for SAIC are actually better than for exports. It's quite interesting.
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Brad Setser is a 2023 vintage LLM useful for the limited things where he actually has data ("oh look Ireland tax haven").
 
Wrought

Wrought

Captain
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BRI dealmaking surged to a record high last year, with a new twist on smaller details.

HONG KONG, May 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China is remaking its Belt and Road for a more hostile world. Smaller projects, greater use of equity and an emphasis on compatible standards pushed deals linked to the initiative to a record $213 billion in 2025, according to research by Australia’s Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center (GFDC) in Shanghai. The revamp offers more durable support for Beijing’s export engine, going well beyond simple resilience to President Donald Trump’s renewed trade wars to mount a sustained challenge to a U.S.‑centric global order.

So far, the concept of the Belt and Road Initiative as a grand masterplan to boost commerce has delivered. In the decade to 2025, China’s trade with BRI partners surged 240% to $3.4 trillion, far outpacing the 64% growth in China’s overall trade over the same period. Backed by a still‑humming export machine, the People’s Republic defied Trump’s tariff war to post a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025. If anything, Washington’s protectionist push forced Chinese exporters to diversify markets, and the Belt and Road ⁠supplied ready‑made corridors to do that, reinforcing the intra-Asia trade routes that lenders such as HSBC
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and Standard Chartered
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have long highlighted as the new engines of global commerce. Better still, the BRI also helps promote the yuan’s internationalisation. As of 2025, roughly 30% of China’s trade with BRI partners was settled in renminbi, up from low single‑digit levels in 2015, according to central‑bank data.
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Wrought

Wrought

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April trade figures came in very strong for both imports and exports.

LONDON/BEIJING, May 9 (Reuters) - China's export growth gathered pace in April as factories raced to meet a wave of overseas orders from buyers seeking to stockpile components amid fears the Iran ‌war could push global input costs even higher. Exports expanded 14.1% from a year earlier in U.S. dollar value terms, customs data showed on Saturday, outpacing
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and a 7.9% rise tipped by economists.

Imports notched another strong month in April, climbing 25.3% versus 27.8% in March. Economists had forecasted growth of 15.2%. That boosted China's trade surplus last month to $84.8 billion, from $51.13 billion in March. Momentum ‌was solid in the ⁠first quarter, with China's GDP growth hitting 5% year-on-year, the top of the government's full-year target range, and lessening the need for immediate stimulus.
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tphuang

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2053940055123595730

import and export data from April. Looks like they really reduced oil import in April, but that's partly due to stockpiling in Q1.

Rare Earth import is up 9.5% so far this year, but down 30% in Apr. Rare Earth export is up 4.9% this yr. This is all in tonnage. In revenue, both are up significantly more.
 
J

jli88

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jli88 said:
Pretty bad numbers for April overall:
Retail sales just 0.2% YoY increase

New loans issued negative YoY

Fixed Asset Investment is again negative YoY.


China needs a HUGE stimulus right now. The more the central government delays, the worse it's going to be.
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Why is the government resisting a stimulus so much. Inflation is very low, there's a currency appreciation pressure, and the currency is undervalued by a lot.

Everything points to a need of a massive monetary and fiscal stimulus directed towards the major problems China is facing: births and tech.

Delaying this stimulus can lead to a bake-in of lower growth and missed potential.

Excessive austerity, and conservative fiscal and monetary policy are not good. It's like a patient getting tachycardia, and you are waiting there for the patient to recover by itself, instead of giving emergency defibrillation.
 
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