I believe that no one has the right solutions, but it's high time that solutions must be tried. Demographics is intimately linked with the overall economic power, scientific and industrial production capacity etc. And China is up against the whole West, so it is already against a major bloc of a billion plus people.
Chinese Economics Thread
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I believe that no one has the right solutions, but it's high time that solutions must be tried. Demographics is intimately linked with the overall economic power, scientific and industrial production capacity etc. And China is up against the whole West, so it is already against a major bloc of a billion plus people.
If they have to do it then let rich people do it abroad. Don’t exploit citizens within the country.
I agree with your comments but how do men from the rural areas, who earn comparatively less than urban salarymen, compete? What strategies or policies can be used for rural men to increase their chances of finding a spouse, given that they're possibly more inclined to having children?
This video does make me feel sorry for this guy. He earns around 1200USD per month, has a stable job, has a condo in a city and is taking care of his elderly mother - good character from what we can see. Local officials tried a matchmaking session in his village but the 2 women said they should get new guys (from 8 guys). It's made by a japanese news outlet so we must be wary of their framing and intentions, but the guy seems like he is a low-hanging fruit for increasing the birth rate.
What struck me is his salary of 1200USD + assets + low cost life style; he is globally competitive no? Is a SKorea style solution possible here?
Wow, China is still letting NHK crews roam freely across the country? That seems ill advised given everything else's that's happening between China and Japan.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
They do, but what about all those domestic people who are middle-class and could muster up the finances to afford it but are hesitant to travel/break domestic law? There are many many people who just didn't make the leap because it seems to far-fetched to do this thing. I was saving up money to do 4 kids in the US, which would have been almost a million dollars. But my wife was brave; she said let's just try the Kazakh path for a quarter the price, follow all the instructions and see where it gets us. She did all the research and talked to all the people; there's not a lot of people with that type of courage or initiative. Most people just talk about it, kick the idea around for years treating it as their safety line, and then they get too old and get accept that they just won't have kids this lifetime.
If regulated, it's a boon. By exploitation, you are talking about girls being tricked or kidnapped, forced to act as surrogates. We spoke to all our surrogates in Kazakhstan. They must all be mothers with their own children already born and they must not do it over 4 times due to health risks. They are in their 30's and that money affords them a better lifestyle. They save that money to put their kids through school or provide them with a way to start a business when they are ready. If you looked at her and said you won't hire her because you don't want to exploit her, it would sound as ridiculous as telling a small business that you won't buy their product because you think they've worked too hard and sell it too cheap so you don't want to exploit them.
Rural people usually have children earlier and have higher fertility rates, right? Am I right? I assumed that. My solution helps middle class city folk who put off child-bearing for too long because they dedicated their youths to their careers. That is a large population in China.
Yeah... I would say if a rural Chinese guy is just too poor, he'd have to buy a foreign bride. I don't see any other way.
No, more like the rich exploiting the poor. China is still a communist country and the government doesn't like severe exploitation of the disadvantages.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
If they really ran it that way, then there should be no street sweepers, no garbage collectors, no toilet cleaners, etc... The reality is that there's jobs that people won't do unless they are very disadvantaged but in that situation, they want and they need that job. Saying you won't exploit them is disempowering them from making their own choice to have a chance to rise.
Some poor rural ladies in their 30's who want to start small businesses to better the lives they can afford for their kids need a sum of cash and they have no problem getting pregnant for 9 months to get it. Remove that option and now what will those mothers do? Sit at home in a dirt ground 1 story house picking dried corn off the cob or weaving straw sandals, never able to save up anything. You wanted to protect her but you just cut off her wings and her hope, telling her the ground is safer even though she wanted so much to join those who can fly.
And also, there is a very serious question about whether keeping surrogacy illegal actually increases or decreases the exploitation. My wife's research was thorough. If we wanted to do surrogacy in China, we can. The cost is high, on par with American prices. We would go to meeting point where they would drive us to a basement/illegal IVF lab to extract sperm and eggs. I don't know if we would be blind-folded or if we would go in a van without windows. We would pay, and we are not allowed to see anything else beyond that point, no questions answered. We would be driven back to the meeting point. No further contact can be initiated by us. 9 months later, they will contact us with our newborn and birth documents which they will falsify through some bribed hospital and we will be allowed 1 DNA test before all contact is permanently blocked. In this situation, working with these criminals, I can believe that some very dark exploitation occurs. But in Kazakhstan where everything is heavily regulated, we saw no exploitation or anything agaisnt anyone's will.
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In a recent debate beteween Glenn and Brad, Brad actually admitted that his statement,
"Chinese automakers don't make any money at home" was actually based on Brad believing FT/NYT claims, rather than any examination of hard evidence (spreadsheets, financial reports, basic numbers...).
Shameful for someone who takes himself so seriously. At least have the humility to apologize and re-orient your view? There is no shame in admitting you were wrong or approached something improperly. The shame is in keeping the charade going.
It's a good thread simply because Glenn puts out a lot of good numbers in analysis.
Check it out, domestic margins for SAIC are actually better than for exports. It's quite interesting.