2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[solarz]

Because INDOPACOM would get cooked in a shooting war against China right now. Trading an escort for permanent expulsion of the US from the West Pacific is highly favourable. Should WW3 break out right now, the US would lose simply due to munitions depletion and nonexistent industrial base for replenishment.

I agree with this. It would be utterly foolish *NOT* to send Chinese military vessels to the area, that would be a signal of weakness on the level of Iran before the war. At the very least, this is a golden opportunity for Chinese ships to gather intelligence on the USN.

It's not like there hasn't been showdowns between Chinese and US ships and aircraft before, I don't see why China would be unwilling to show some assertiveness right now.

 

[plawolf]

Defensive weapons only delay the inevitable. You get the other guy to stop shooting at you by blowing up their shit. China needs to invest in ways to project power to the CONUS so that it can credibly destroy American ability and will to fight. You cannot preserve your forces unless the enemy is dead.

In a real shooting war, China clears the board in terms of US military assets within the first and second island chains in the opening days or even hours of the conflict. That’s bases, air assets and surface naval assets. Subs might be harder but are largely irrelevant in terms of land attack capabilities, and trying to rely on subs to spam tomahawks where the PLA rules the waves and the skies is just making the PLAN’s job of hunting down USN SSNs so much easier.

Once those forward positions and naval forces are gone, what is the US going to use to hit mainland China with? Tweets? B2s are few in number and essentially non-survivable in the kind of threat environment they will need to fly through to get within weapons range of mainland targets.

It is precisely because China will be so overwhelmingly effective at completely annihilating US forces conventionally that there is a real risk that an enraged and terrified America who cannot fight back effectively conventionally will seek to escalate into the nuclear domain. And the cold logic of game theory maps out that once you are down the path of nuclear exchanges under those preconditions, it an almost inescapable inevitability that those nuclear exchanges will rapidly spiral out of all control into full blown thermonuclear global MAD.

It is only because China has already achieved effective nuclear MAD, and it has the forces and capability to accomplish a crushing conventional victory in East Asia that China now need to address the next escalation risk in the above escalation chain of nuclear idiocy by the Americans. As the Americans have now conclusively demonstrated, you just cannot count on them being sane or rational, so you do not want to bet the future existence of your entire civilisation on the assumption that when pushed to the literal abyss, future American leaders will have the intelligence and moral courage to step back and admit defeat instead of gleefully leaping off while dragging everyone else with them expecting their sky ghost to magic them wings to fly while everyone else falls to their doom.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

I agree with this. It would be utterly foolish *NOT* to send Chinese military vessels to the area, that would be a signal of weakness on the level of Iran before the war. At the very least, this is a golden opportunity for Chinese ships to gather intelligence on the USN.

Haven't PLAN electronic surveillance ship been in the area since before the start of the conflict? Likely China also supplied Iran with ELINT equipment, and the recorded signals/emissions are probably being analyzed in China right now.

 

[iewgnem]

Your LLM was trained without physical understanding of moving oil 10000km on trains is....not feasible. If its such a great idea why don't you go build it - I'll ship oil on it once you finish the construction of the infrastructure.

10000 km might not be feasible, but 10000km is also the distance from Iran to Alaska Canada through the Bering Strait, lmao
But then again there are those who disagree on the feasibility of a Bering Strait rail bridge.

Do you get off on humiliating yourself or something?

 

[plawolf]

I agree with this. It would be utterly foolish *NOT* to send Chinese military vessels to the area, that would be a signal of weakness on the level of Iran before the war. At the very least, this is a golden opportunity for Chinese ships to gather intelligence on the USN.

It's not like there hasn't been showdowns between Chinese and US ships and aircraft before, I don't see why China would be unwilling to show some assertiveness right now.

Two reasons.

Firstly, no real need. If you think China needs to send warships into the region to be able to collect valuable signals intelligence you are a few decades behind the times. Rest assured that China has assets able to collect all the intelligence it wants without needing to have warships within sensor range of the action.

Secondly, risk of overreach. Past showdowns have been in China’s periphery, and was backed up with overwhelming military might from the PLA. If the Americans tried anything stupid, they were the ones who would have died for it.

Sending lone PLAN warships or even task groups into the region is bluffing with an openly weak hand.

You are essentially relying on opfor not daring to strike you instead of being able to credibly be able to defend yourself if they do.

To send a PLAN warship to the gulf is the equivalent of the British or French or Canadians sailing one of their warships into the Taiwan straits. Everyone involved knows they aren’t scaring anyone and that those ships can be sunk for basically zero cost any time China wants. Why would China actively work to put one of its own warships in a mirror position?

There is also the risk that the US will purposefully pick a fight with said PLAN warship as a means of creating a ‘win’ for the media. If they do that, you put the PLAN captain in the impossible position of standing firm and risking starting a fight he cannot hope to win, or being forced to publicly back down and hand America a propaganda win. Sure China can impose all sorts of costs on America for do that, but that will be China being forced to respond to America’s moves instead of proactively making its own.

Having a PLAN warship in the region also creates ancillary risks and complications. For example, what do you do with the inevitable distress signals from civilian ships the Iranians hit? Help and you will get zero thanks and put your self at risk, don’t help and you can bet the western MSM will make a massive song and dance about it.

 

[taxiya]

Do you have also have memory degradation/context window limitation like a has been LLM? How does crude by rail being viable in North America in any way shape or form relate to your supposed viability of crude by rail from Iran to China?

It is not some supposed viability. It has happened since the opening of Iran China railroad service in May 2025. Railroad transportation is not the first choice in peace time of course, but certainly the choice in war time.

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May 28th 2025, the first cargo train started from Xi'an and reached land port near Tehran. Few days later it returned China fully loaded with Iranian crude oil.

 

[solarz]

Two reasons.

Firstly, no real need. If you think China needs to send warships into the region to be able to collect valuable signals intelligence you are a few decades behind the times. Rest assured that China has assets able to collect all the intelligence it wants without needing to have warships within sensor range of the action.

Secondly, risk of overreach. Past showdowns have been in China’s periphery, and was backed up with overwhelming military might from the PLA. If the Americans tried anything stupid, they were the ones who would have died for it.

Sending lone PLAN warships or even task groups into the region is bluffing with an openly weak hand.

You are essentially relying on opfor not daring to strike you instead of being able to credibly be able to defend yourself if they do.

To send a PLAN warship to the gulf is the equivalent of the British or French or Canadians sailing one of their warships into the Taiwan straits. Everyone involved knows they aren’t scaring anyone and that those ships can be sunk for basically zero cost any time China wants. Why would China actively work to put one of its own warships in a mirror position?

There is also the risk that the US will purposefully pick a fight with said PLAN warship as a means of creating a ‘win’ for the media. If they do that, you put the PLAN captain in the impossible position of standing firm and risking starting a fight he cannot hope to win, or being forced to publicly back down and hand America a propaganda win. Sure China can impose all sorts of costs on America for do that, but that will be China being forced to respond to America’s moves instead of proactively making its own.

Having a PLAN warship in the region also creates ancillary risks and complications. For example, what do you do with the inevitable distress signals from civilian ships the Iranians hit? Help and you will get zero thanks and put your self at risk, don’t help and you can bet the western MSM will make a massive song and dance about it.

I have to disagree with this. Given that the US has declared a blockade on the Hormuz Strait and threatening to block or detain Chinese ships, NOT responding militarily would be a sign of weakness for Trump to further encroach on Chinese interests.

This is in fact the perfect opportunity for China to use its navy as a deterrence, because any belligerence by US forces would spell certain doom for their Middle East venture.

If the US attempts an unprovoked attack on Chinese military ships in international waters, it’s basically AR time.

I’m reminded of this video from Zhang Weiwei:

In the video, he used the phrase 万事俱备. The implication is 只欠东风. In other words, China is just waiting for an opportunity.

 

[Thecore]

future American leaders will have the intelligence and moral courage to step back and admit defeat instead of gleefully leaping off while dragging everyone else with them expecting their sky ghost to magic them wings to fly while everyone else falls to their doom.

Maybe China should employ some psychological warfare and purport to have conducted fringe science experiments regarding the afterlife and put out some creepy enigmatic papers that conclude the afterlife doesn’t exist. Just to mess with them. Considering how anxious most Americans are about Chinese scientific advancement, they might just believe it and be scared from their cocoon of comfort in their belief of their next eternal life in heaven and leaving a blown up wasteland in this mortal plane not meaning anything.

 

[abenomics12345]

10000 km might not be feasible

Oh is this you admitting that you're smoking crack in saying that it makes sense to ship crude to China from Iran via rail at volume sufficient to make it matter?

It is not some supposed viability. It has happened since the opening of Iran China railroad service in May 2025. Railroad transportation is not the first choice in peace time of course, but certainly the choice in war time.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

May 28th 2025, the first cargo train started from Xi'an and reached land port near Tehran. Few days later it returned China fully loaded with Iranian crude oil.
View attachment 173482

By this logic, nuclear fusion is also feasible today because 'nuclear fusion can be done', just it doesn't last very long. Science project vs feasibility at scale are completely different things.

 

[Puss in Boots]

I have to disagree with this. Given that the US has declared a blockade on the Hormuz Strait and threatening to block or detain Chinese ships, NOT responding militarily would be a sign of weakness for Trump to further encroach on Chinese interests.

This is in fact the perfect opportunity for China to use its navy as a deterrence, because any belligerence by US forces would spell certain doom for their Middle East venture.

If the US attempts an unprovoked attack on Chinese military ships in international waters, it’s basically AR time.

I’m reminded of this video from Zhang Weiwei:

In the video, he used the phrase 万事俱备. The implication is 只欠东风. In other words, China is just waiting for an opportunity.

Have you considered what would happen if the US still forcibly inspected Chinese cargo ships even when the Chinese navy was in the Strait of Hormuz? That would only make China appear weaker.

Blustering intimidation is meaningless; only being prepared to fight is true deterrence. As mentioned many times before, China has no advantage in the Middle East; everyone knows this.

The US would be very happy to engage in friction with China in the Middle East, while the Chinese navy would be at a significant disadvantage. If you were a decision-maker in the Chinese military and knew that sending warships to the Middle East would put the Chinese navy in such a disadvantageous position, would you still do it?

Don't always think about getting your momentary satisfaction; this is war, not a game! Any wrong decision will cause unimaginable losses!