2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

[abenomics12345]

You're still struggling to understand the real world: money is fictional, the cost of energy isn't the energy itself but everything downstream that require energy to function. Yes if Europeans has to lose access to Chinese goods for China to import energy, Europeans will lose Chinese goods, because money from export to Europe are worthless without ability to buy real things with that money.

But it's also an entirely moot point because even if you ignore China and central Asian section of the route are double track, rail is hardly the only nor even the main trade route between China and Europe, something I will be generous and assume you simply forgot and not ignorant of, diverting export rail cargo back to ship literally cost China nothing as it will be entirely up to Europe to pay the cost difference.

Having said that you're making good progress in understand why capacity is all that matters, but it's not about the track or gauge or terrain (please review high school physics again), it's limited at loading and unloading, which will require infrastructure investment to expand. But as for who's going to pay for those, it's whoever without that infrastructure, i.e. countries currently starved of fuel, and countries who need to import Chinese goods, which is now everyone when China's the only country who has fuel to power their industry.

Do you get it? In the real world only real things matter, it doesn't matter what that money cost is, if you have access to energy and others don't, you're going to make a profit one way or another, be it through direct resale of oil, or through monopoly of all industrial outputs that require energy.

You can perform all of the mental gymnastics you want but it's far simpler to just buy oil at the market price via maritime route. When these other countries implode economically as you magically say they do oil demand will also drop. Meaning all these said investments in oil and gas will just become useless once demand destruction happens.

Try and keep up with basic math.

Canadian oil transport by rail basically died ever since TMX came on-line. It was a desperate move when Canada had no choice. China is far from desperate.

As someone whose actually visited TMX terminals yes I perfectly well understand the viability of crude by rail, something @iewgnem seems to not.

 

[AssassinsMace]

My bet is some "Israeli" entity like religious. media, or government will publicly make a statement what Japan did in Asia to civilians during WWII was not serious. They already believe it. Someone just has to say it. It follows the Western victim culture logic. They have to make less everyone else's victimization so they can think that "their" victimization was more important. Also and you're seeing Jews do this where everyone is guilty and not just those that actually committed the crime. And then if you don't feel guilty for not even ever taking part in the crime, you're as guilty as those that did. Look at the how the ADL said if someone who is Jewish feels scared walking out in public like out at night with no one around, that's antisemitism. Who committed the crime...? Everyone is at fault because society didn't do anything to stop the insecurity of those who are Jewish.

 

[abenomics12345]

Doesn't this situation just bring us back to last year's tariff war? The US and China haven't reached the point of armed conflict yet; China still has many cards to play.

I mean like I said I agree with your framing, I too also prefer to do business and focus on the economy and not have to worry about war with the US but we have a lunatic in the White House.

My original question still stands- does China pay or does it not pay? And China refuses to pay and does not send an escort fleet and we have Yinhe 2.0 - what's next?

If China acquiesces to this, what's to prevent Trump from recognizing Taiwan Independence? What's next?

In case the modus operandi of Trump isn't abundantly clear, 'accommodation' will be recognized by him as weakness. You can easily game out the next steps of the way these people think.

If China intends to send warships to the Middle East to confront the United States, it would be a repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Soviet Union did not set up a way out for itself at that time, and its status in the international communist movement plummeted in this incident.

The US is shutting down Chinese oil imports - why should China allow that to happen?

If China were to send warships to the Middle East, it would mean that China is willing to go to any lengths, including direct war with the US. This would become an act of China asserting its sphere of influence. Obviously, China has never had this need, so China will not do this. Simply put, it's not worth it!

I agree its not in China's interest for extension of its sphere of influence into the Middle East, but what's the alternative if this drags on for 6 months?

Hypothetical scenario but in early March people thought this was wrapped up in 2-3 weeks (including one of the biggest petchem companies in China).

In case I've not made myself abundantly clear, the goal is not military escalation with the US but a political solution to this shut down of the Hormuz Strait, of which military capacity offer possibility for solution.

Of course another one would be what

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- that China suspends RE exports to the everyone else in the world until this conflict is resolved. Good luck making missiles without RE.

But all of these things involves China doing something, eventually, as opposed to sitting back and do nothing (which was viable when Iranian oil cargos were still arriving in China w/o American blockade).

 

[RobertC]

Hua Bin provides a useful historical review in

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One of many useful lessons:

Brzezinski’s most prescient warning appears in The Grand Chessboard, “Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an ‘antihegemonic’ coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances... Averting this contingency... will require a display of U.S. geostrategic skill on the western, eastern, and southern perimeters of Eurasia simultaneously.”

Fast forward 30 years, the current reality is -

- China and Russia have formed a “no limits partnership”

- Iran joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2022

- The three countries conduct regular joint naval exercises in the Persian Gulf

- Iran supplies drones to Russia for the Ukraine war

- China and Russia provide diplomatic, materiel, and intelligence support for Iran in its war against the US and Israel

Brzezinski’s warning has materialized. One high-profile Chinese commentator noted, “Trump’s war against Iran may be the stupidest strategic mistake in American history” because it accelerates this anti-hegemonic coalition.

He already declared victory for Iran in

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As long as Iran keeps control of Hormuz, the US Empire’s Last War will go from “shock and awe” to “shocking and awful”

 

[Puss in Boots]

I mean like I said I agree with your framing, I too also prefer to do business and focus on the economy and not have to worry about war with the US but we have a lunatic in the White House.

My original question still stands- does China pay or does it not pay? And China refuses to pay and does not send an escort fleet and we have Yinhe 2.0 - what's next?

If China acquiesces to this, what's to prevent Trump from recognizing Taiwan Independence? What's next?

In case the modus operandi of Trump isn't abundantly clear, 'accommodation' will be recognized by him as weakness. You can easily game out the next steps of the way these people think.



The US is shutting down Chinese oil imports - why should China allow that to happen?


I agree its not in China's interest for extension of its sphere of influence into the Middle East, but what's the alternative if this drags on for 6 months?

Hypothetical scenario but in early March people thought this was wrapped up in 2-3 weeks (including one of the biggest petchem companies in China).

In case I've not made myself abundantly clear, the goal is not military escalation with the US but a political solution to this shut down of the Hormuz Strait, of which military capacity offer possibility for solution.

Of course another one would be what

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- that China suspends RE exports to the everyone else in the world until this conflict is resolved. Good luck making missiles without RE.

But all of these things involves China doing something, eventually, as opposed to sitting back and do nothing (which was viable when Iranian oil cargos were still arriving in China w/o American blockade).

China doesn't have a habit of publicly announcing its response measures.
This is a test of resilience—whether China can withstand an import oil shortage or the US can withstand inflation.
This is typical of China's strategy: "You fight your way, I fight mine." Not everything needs to be a head-on confrontation to constitute resistance.

 

[abenomics12345]

China doesn't have a habit of publicly announcing its response measures.
This is a test of resilience—whether China can withstand an import oil shortage or the US can withstand inflation.
This is typical of China's strategy: "You fight your way, I fight mine." Not everything needs to be a head-on confrontation to constitute resistance.

You are again skirting the question of what China should do strategically.

The US is not reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for any energy irregardless of price of energy. Americans (rightfully or wrongfully) have largely accepted the political-economy trade off of accepting the Darwinian game that if you get sick you die or you end up bankrupt. Where's the US riots from this?

Trump's midterms are in more than 6 months.

 

[Puss in Boots]

You are again skirting the question of what China should do strategically.

The US is not reliant on the Strait of Hormuz for any energy irregardless of price of energy. Americans (rightfully or wrongfully) have largely accepted the political-economy trade off of accepting the Darwinian game that if you get sick you die or you end up bankrupt. Where's the US riots from this?

Trump's midterms are in more than 6 months.

You truly know nothing about economics; you don't even understand why Trump is so sensitive to oil prices.

Oil is a highly market-driven commodity. A shortage of oil anywhere can cause global oil prices to skyrocket, and oil affects every aspect of life, not just the extra money you spend on gas.

If you lack even this basic understanding, then all your inferences are meaningless.

Industrial Raw Materials
Fuel shortages quickly transmitted upstream, leading to tight supplies of several key industrial raw materials.
Naphtha: As a core raw material for the plastics and chemical fiber industries, its supply has been severely impacted. Japan's naphtha imports plummeted, and prices hit record highs.
Butadiene & Synthetic Rubber: Prices for butadiene, a core raw material for tire manufacturing, have more than doubled, and synthetic rubber prices have surged, directly driving up costs for auto parts.
Medical Plastic Raw Materials: Due to tight LPG supplies, South Korea is experiencing a shortage of medical plastic raw materials used to manufacture syringes and infusion bags.
Finished Products
Raw material supply cuts have forced some manufacturers to cut production or halt operations, affecting the supply of end products.
Automobiles: Japan's auto industry has been hit hard. Carmakers like Toyota, Honda, and Nissan face a "production halt wave" due to depleted raw material inventories. Toyota announced a cumulative production cut of 38,000 units of models specifically for the Middle East market between March and April.
Semiconductors & Chips:
Japan: The semiconductor industry is facing a "supply cut." Prices for ultra-high purity hydrogen fluoride, essential for chip manufacturing, once surged to 140 times pre-crisis levels, forcing Renesas Electronics to lower delivery targets for automotive chips.
South Korea: Supply of helium (mainly from Qatar), essential for semiconductor manufacturing, has been interrupted, with prices soaring by over 40%.
Taiwan: With liquefied natural gas reserves lasting only a few weeks, its world-leading chip factories also face a direct threat.
Agriculture & Food
The crisis has also波及 (spread to) agricultural production materials, which may further affect food supply and prices.
Fertilizers: The Strait of Hormuz is a key channel for global fertilizer transport. Supply disruptions have led to soaring fertilizer prices, driving up agricultural production costs. For example, Thailand relies on Gulf countries for about 74% of its urea imports.
Food: The rise in fertilizer and energy costs is transmitting along the chain to end consumers, who may face pressure from rising food prices.

 

[iewgnem]

You can perform all of the mental gymnastics you want but it's far simpler to just buy oil at the market price via maritime route. When these other countries implode economically as you magically say they do oil demand will also drop. Meaning all these said investments in oil and gas will just become useless once demand destruction happens.

Try and keep up with basic math.


As someone whose actually visited TMX terminals yes I perfectly well understand the viability of crude by rail, something @iewgnem seems to not.

You're still struggling with the concept of what's real and what's fiction: China doesn't buy Iranian oil at market price, market price doesn't apply when China buys oil in RMB, other economies will only collapse if rail is the only viable option and they refuse to buy rail oil, and the benefit from destruction of non Chinese industrial base can offset any conceivable investment in rail infrastructure.

You spend way too much time trading and way too little time in the real world, touch grass buddy, the laws of physics doesn't care about your trades, if you have no oil, you have no oil.

 

[abenomics12345]

You truly know nothing about economics; you don't even understand why Trump is so sensitive to oil prices.

Oil is a highly market-driven commodity. A shortage of oil anywhere can cause global oil prices to skyrocket, and oil affects every aspect of life, not just the extra money you spend on gas.

If you lack even this basic understanding, then all your inferences are meaningless.

You're still struggling with the concept of what's real and what's fiction: China doesn't buy Iranian oil at market price, market price doesn't apply when China buys oil in RMB, other economies will only collapse if rail is the only viable option and they refuse to buy rail oil, and the benefit from destruction of non Chinese industrial base can offset any conceivable investment in rail infrastructure.

You spend way too much time trading and way too little time in the real world, touch grass buddy, the laws of physics doesn't care about your trades, if you have no oil, you have no oil.

Somehow I've been able to get two idiots triggered at the same time - one who claims I don't know that "oil is a market driven commodity" while the other one claims "China doesn't buy oil at market price" and "China isn't impact by oil price because it buys oil in RMB".

Why don't you two settle it out while I grab some popcorn.

 

[Puss in Boots]

Somehow I've been able to get two idiots triggered at the same time - one who claims I don't know that "oil is a market driven commodity" while the other one claims "China doesn't buy oil at market price" and "China isn't impact by oil price because it buys oil in RMB".

Why don't you two settle it out while I grab some popcorn.

China is not a completely free market economy, so it will employ some policies to curb oil prices, but what he said is somewhat wishful thinking.
The economic models implemented by the United States and China are vastly different. I'm explaining to you the impact of the oil crisis on the United States, so these two are not necessarily in conflict.
China's oil industry is entirely comprised of state-owned enterprises, and China can even choose to supply oil domestically at a loss. For the United States, however, those oil giants will only seize the opportunity to profit even more.