2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
A more or less blockade of energy supplies from Arabs and Iran going to China is extremely dangerous move. It reminds me of US embargo of oil flows to Japan in 1941
I think it's not a big hurdle, this US toll. Loopholes and exploits will be found. STS (ship-to-ship) transfer is common in oil freight movement; Irani tanker, without leaving the Persian Gulf, can transfer it's product to a foreign ship in the Gulf which won't be docking at an Irani port.
Now maybe a good time for Pakistan to finish it's side of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and perhaps even add an oil pipeline to bypass the US toll altogether.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
It’s actually the Chinese retaliation that will be the far more historically accurate parallel.
Even if America totally blocks off ME oil and gas supplies to China, China still has access to Russian supplies, domestic supplies and both the technological capabilities and industrial scale to adapt without too much damage and economic pain.
OTOH, just a total Chinese export ban on RE will be enough to eventually lead to the shutting down America’s remaining industrial production capacities.
The most tricky part for China would be to calibrate the response to avoid forcing America into launching its own version of Pearl Harbour as a last ditch attempt to use its rapidly diminishing military might to force China to yield before China can pivot its industrial might into overwhelming military dominance.
This is why I think China’s response needs to be overwhelming from the moment it does decide to respond. The idea is to demonstrate that sheer dominance of China in every aspect and make any last ditch military Hail Mary clearly futile and impossible to succeed. Thereby winning the war without needing to fire a single shot.
Actually this is probably one of the more bizzare conflicts. For all the explosions and destruction, not a whole lot of lives have been lost on either side, with the exception of the Iranian school hit which was very tragic.This Iran War has turned bizarre with those negotiations.
LOL!
I do not remember all the bullshit, because too much bullshit, past and present, still I kind of recollect that the Korean War, both sides were so bitter, that they would negotiate that way.
Often, those Korean War initial negotiations, were just negotiations about the next round of negations.
You know, they were negotiating, for further negotiations.
That was bullshit, but hey! Eventually the fighting stopped. Then next, the Korean Peninsula did not blow up these past few decades.
Unlike that other neighourhood.
So, too much was expected from these negotiations.
That is the part I question. Because I think it is bullshit.
One phrase. We heard it before, and that I what I want to talk about. The point of no return.
It is clear to me, for reasons unknown, that Iran does not seem to understand or appreciate that they are past the point of no return here. That is the situation they find themselves in.
The last 40 years since they made that deal with Reagan to release the hostages, it was an uneasy truce. Now this war finally has started in earnest. Nothing to hold back now.
They should have finished off Kuwait, Bahrain, and especially the UAE. Maybe they have the chance now to do so.
Whether they need any outside assistance to prosecute this war to its fullest extent, that is only up to them as they should know.
When the United States slapped on those tariffs on China on what Trump call Liberation Day, then the Chinese hit back just as hard with their own tariffs, escalating to basically a mutual trade embargo between the two countries, it was clear, IMHO, China view it as going beyond the point of no return.
Then, a funny thing happened, it went sideways. The situation did not go directly step by step to a military confrontation. A truce of sorts was agreed upon in the economic realm.
Then both sides went at it again with various sanctions, then China got aggressive and just hit them with a total ban on rare earths for US defense companies. That ban is permanent, because they went past the point of no return.
So, it is a very interesting time in the world. A lot of moving parts, and a lot of situations that have been changed forever.
We see what develops.
Each side is waging economic Armageddon on the other, in complete opposite to the prelude with Israel in Gaza where the aim was mass killing and demolition of civilian infrastructure.
Maybe it will change after the ceasefire is over and the US decides on boots on the ground/nukes.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The point isn’t that it will be a watertight toll or that it will be impossible to circumvent. Ironically, China will need to defend the principle of freedom of navigation least a precedent be set and suddenly other rouge states think they can extort China for safe passage money. What China doesn’t want is be forced to send its navy all over the global to hunt pirates and enforce freedom of navigation.
FriedRiceNSpice
Major
To bridge the gap, China can always increase shale oil production while ramping up renewable energy production. As for ICE cars, gradual phase out should be implemented. Gasoline prices should be allowed to float higher, and cars with poorer fuel economy as well as more expensive ICE cars should be phased out first. This can be done through combination of financial incentives (ie higher fees/taxes on ICE vehicles) as well as hard policy (ie gradually increasing fuel economy minimal standards over time).
This is more of a last resort weapon for post apocalyptic scenarios. Traditional destroyers more than suffice for ordinary patrol missions.I saw a TikTok video of a minute of this vessel from an official state media account back in January.
It created a stir. Wonder if we will see this in action in regards to this blockade?
China can mandate to sell only EV cars and trucks as well as trade in all gas cars for EV cars. I wondered how much gas will be saved or not needed? Also, start exploring hydrogen cars.
Ramp up those nuclear power plants.
Renewable energy is the future. Cannot stuck in gas and oil forever.
The USA actions showing desparation .
Most likelly there is not enofght weapon to do anything, but the need there to save face.
This naval blockade against a country whom has land border with 7 country, and only one has medium level of willingness to blockade the land routes is , let say, pointless.
And we havenát considered the access to the Caspian sea, that gives access to the black sea and Russia .
So, all together Iran has unlimited access to 11 country, and full controll above the 15-20% of the world crude production .
Most likelly there is not enofght weapon to do anything, but the need there to save face.
This naval blockade against a country whom has land border with 7 country, and only one has medium level of willingness to blockade the land routes is , let say, pointless.
And we havenát considered the access to the Caspian sea, that gives access to the black sea and Russia .
So, all together Iran has unlimited access to 11 country, and full controll above the 15-20% of the world crude production .