FriedRiceNSpice
Major
Spending 50k on toilets that clog pretty much sums up the US MIC. Endemic corruption and completely bereft of any talent - staffed and led by stupid people at all levels.
2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis
- Thread starter plawolf
- Start date
If China really wanted to cause trouble for the US, they should just start harassing any US assets in the Pacific. That will make it harder to move planes and missiles to West Asia for the war, meaning Iran will get bombed less and destroy more American assets. As soon as the war is over, they will all move back to East Asia anyway
You can say Israel would be the one to benefit from a false flag attack on neutral third parties, we all know it.
The blockade challenge doesn't have to happen immediately. China can afford to wait for the situation to develop.
I believe the US is the country most affected by the blockade. You've all been confused by Trump's haphazard response.
As long as Iran insists on not allowing a single ship through the Strait, the so-called additional blockade by the US is meaningless.
We just need to wait a few days, and things will change.
This. US fear above all else losing USD reserve currency status, losing ME energy is a big hit, but Chinese trade volume is ~6x larger than global oil trade and Chinese acceptance of US dollar is actually the main pillar of USD status.
Escorting tankers would be a waste of opportunity, using attack on Chinese tankers as casus beli to kick the US while they're down would be much more advantageous. Blanket export control is a card already played that can be brought back up obviously, but we can go further by enforcing export control on Taiwan semiconductor export, or block Japaness trade because Japan is 2 weeks from nukes (TM).
Meanwhile China can just keep importing Iranian oil via rail.
It's only been, what, 8 month since Trump had to TACO out of the trade war because US auto (and other) industries were weeks away from shutdown after losing RE access.
Chinese sanctions would be especially effective while US is suffering an energy crisis, there's an opportunity here for China to extract a pound of meat from America just to allow them to return to before they tried to block Chinese tankers.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Well, it's obvious to everyone so I didn't consider it name-calling because what other than an imbecile thinks that the higher the military spending the better, and 30% is boss level? And it's not like imbeciles can really learn so it was really for other people to read anyway.
Uh huh. I like North Korea, but North Korea would not be a challenge to the US regardless of size because it prioritizes now rather than investing in the future. I like what they're doing, but with less than 2% military spending, China is America's only challenger and overwhelming favorite.
Comparing North Korea to Iran is moot; North Korea making nukes was the most correct thing it ever did and Iran's old leader held it back big time. Compared to China, North Korea's not going anywhere with its 30%. You're criticizing China, right?
How good they are matters a lot. The only thing that North Korea makes well is nukes, and that's only assumed. They are purely defensive with a 30% budget. China makes everything well, and everything is gettng to a generation that will be a qualitative overmatch for the US... with under 2%. I like the latter.
Wait, who said anything about toilets? Did you... keep reading my post when you said you stopped?? LOL
EXACTLY. This is a very correct statement and very different from your original statement. You originally stated that to win, China needs to spend more than the US. That is wrong. The correct statement is that China needs to spend whatever it needs to spend to surpass the US; the number is much smaller because China is much more efficient and that's what it's doing.
Noooooo, the US is only attacking these other countries because it no longer has confidence confronting China so it 1) wants to vent and 2) wants to change the global landscape to be more pro-US to see if that can give it some room to maneuver with China. China having more of the same stuff wouldn't change this but China having more advanced power-projecting weapons would make the US scared to attack Chinese allies far from China. The way to develop those weapons is through research; the way to strengthen research is to strengthen the economy that supports it, and the way to strengthen that economy is to invest in it rather that spending all you can afford building more weapons now.
You're welcome? I was just pointing out a fact. How many people do you see disagreeing with you? You should have figured it out yourself.
Imbecile facts... the PRC knows the balance between investment and building weapons. That balance has led China to surpass the US in quality in many aspects where we trailed severely decades ago, all while spending less than 2%. That is the goal and we're gonna have to trust them instead of a dude who thinks North Korea is boss cus it spends a third of its GDP only outdated old weapon designs.
There seems to be a huge discussion about it: everyone against you. And building your own weapons systems doesn't mean you stop investing in the future. 30% military spending is no longer investing in the future.
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China lacks the global logistics & power projection to really challenge the US blockade. This is a known, intentional weakness of China as a geopolitical power as Chinese leaders did not want to be bogged down in foreign wars, and still doesn't. Better for China to use the Hormuz blockade as an opportunity to test its contingencies against energy blockades, as the US will inevitably use the same strategy vs. China in any future conflict.
So basically - what are the potential land lanes for oil imports? How about domestic drilling sources? What more can be done to get domestic consumers off of ICE cars? What promising future technologies are there to replace oil in industrial supply chains? Etc. Ultimately if China wants to secure global supply lines it will need a blue water navy and foreign bases, but that's not something you build up over night and you'd also not want to over spend on it the way the US has (those 800+ bases drain a lot of the US's financial resources).
On the other hand, I'm sure the US's "allies" are currently in panic conversations with Washington asking to get an exemption for the blockade. It will be interesting to see if Trump ends up charging them duties.
So basically - what are the potential land lanes for oil imports? How about domestic drilling sources? What more can be done to get domestic consumers off of ICE cars? What promising future technologies are there to replace oil in industrial supply chains? Etc. Ultimately if China wants to secure global supply lines it will need a blue water navy and foreign bases, but that's not something you build up over night and you'd also not want to over spend on it the way the US has (those 800+ bases drain a lot of the US's financial resources).
On the other hand, I'm sure the US's "allies" are currently in panic conversations with Washington asking to get an exemption for the blockade. It will be interesting to see if Trump ends up charging them duties.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
You are on the right lines, but no going far enough. Not just an RE ban, but a total trade ban. Phased in over time, but rapidly, to give negotiations a chance and to minimise disruption to the Chinese economy.
Any moves to cut China’s sea based LoC would be a trade nuclear bomb level event and will demand equivalent responses least a precedent be allowed to be created.
What is far more likely to happen is that Chinese ships continue to pass both tolls for free, while Iran aligned ships pay American tolls and American aligned ships pay Iranian tolls. Idiots like India, the U.S. and SK, Japan etc will probably end up paying both tolls. Magically Taiwanese will demand to be recognised as Chinese.
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This Iran War has turned bizarre with those negotiations.
LOL!
I do not remember all the bullshit, because too much bullshit, past and present, still I kind of recollect that the Korean War, both sides were so bitter, that they would negotiate that way.
Often, those Korean War initial negotiations, were just negotiations about the next round of negations.
You know, they were negotiating, for further negotiations.
That was bullshit, but hey! Eventually the fighting stopped. Then next, the Korean Peninsula did not blow up these past few decades.
Unlike that other neighourhood.
So, too much was expected from these negotiations.
That is the part I question. Because I think it is bullshit.
One phrase. We heard it before, and that I what I want to talk about. The point of no return.
It is clear to me, for reasons unknown, that Iran does not seem to understand or appreciate that they are past the point of no return here. That is the situation they find themselves in.
The last 40 years since they made that deal with Reagan to release the hostages, it was an uneasy truce. Now this war finally has started in earnest. Nothing to hold back now.
They should have finished off Kuwait, Bahrain, and especially the UAE. Maybe they have the chance now to do so.
Whether they need any outside assistance to prosecute this war to its fullest extent, that is only up to them as they should know.
When the United States slapped on those tariffs on China on what Trump call Liberation Day, then the Chinese hit back just as hard with their own tariffs, escalating to basically a mutual trade embargo between the two countries, it was clear, IMHO, China view it as going beyond the point of no return.
Then, a funny thing happened, it went sideways. The situation did not go directly step by step to a military confrontation. A truce of sorts was agreed upon in the economic realm.
Then both sides went at it again with various sanctions, then China got aggressive and just hit them with a total ban on rare earths for US defense companies. That ban is permanent, because they went past the point of no return.
So, it is a very interesting time in the world. A lot of moving parts, and a lot of situations that have been changed forever.
We see what develops.
LOL!
I do not remember all the bullshit, because too much bullshit, past and present, still I kind of recollect that the Korean War, both sides were so bitter, that they would negotiate that way.
Often, those Korean War initial negotiations, were just negotiations about the next round of negations.
You know, they were negotiating, for further negotiations.
That was bullshit, but hey! Eventually the fighting stopped. Then next, the Korean Peninsula did not blow up these past few decades.
Unlike that other neighourhood.
So, too much was expected from these negotiations.
That is the part I question. Because I think it is bullshit.
One phrase. We heard it before, and that I what I want to talk about. The point of no return.
It is clear to me, for reasons unknown, that Iran does not seem to understand or appreciate that they are past the point of no return here. That is the situation they find themselves in.
The last 40 years since they made that deal with Reagan to release the hostages, it was an uneasy truce. Now this war finally has started in earnest. Nothing to hold back now.
They should have finished off Kuwait, Bahrain, and especially the UAE. Maybe they have the chance now to do so.
Whether they need any outside assistance to prosecute this war to its fullest extent, that is only up to them as they should know.
When the United States slapped on those tariffs on China on what Trump call Liberation Day, then the Chinese hit back just as hard with their own tariffs, escalating to basically a mutual trade embargo between the two countries, it was clear, IMHO, China view it as going beyond the point of no return.
Then, a funny thing happened, it went sideways. The situation did not go directly step by step to a military confrontation. A truce of sorts was agreed upon in the economic realm.
Then both sides went at it again with various sanctions, then China got aggressive and just hit them with a total ban on rare earths for US defense companies. That ban is permanent, because they went past the point of no return.
So, it is a very interesting time in the world. A lot of moving parts, and a lot of situations that have been changed forever.
We see what develops.