2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

protonme18

Junior Member
Registered Member
US shifting the goal posts

1. No nuclear ---> Regime Change ---> Open Hormuz ---> No nuclear (repeat back to first) ---.....

It's going circular.

IRGC better get those targetting ready, the next surprise standoff missile blows coming.....US ships are restocking and the interceptors are reloaded.....
 

TPenglake

Junior Member
Registered Member
The US and Israel's entire situation could essentially be summed up by this line from Game of Thrones, "They've already played their trick, they can only play it once." Decapitation strikes, espionage, suprise attacks, short of using a nuke the US and Israel have already exhausted every shock and awe tactic in their doctrine meant to deliver a knockout blow to their opponent.

For all the talks of ground troops and the firing of US generals that opposed a ground invasion, I'm sure even within Hegseth's circle there is general acknowledgment that a haphazardly assembled force of 50,000 men brought together after the failure to incite revolution within Iran isn't going to do much. What more needs to be said than Iraq, a flat country suited for armored vehicles pushes and with a population divided by sectarianism, still required a force of 300,000 men and months of preparation.

A month of punishing airstrikes hasn't phased the Iranians in the slightest, does the US seriously think another month or two will make a difference? And even if they do think so then go ahead, there are still lots of juicy energy stations and desalination plants across the GCC that the IRGC would love to get their hands on.
 

protonme18

Junior Member
Registered Member
For the IRGC, preparation for the targeting immediately include Oracle, Amazon, Microsoft, Tech Centers, Datacenter. The amount of counter strikes to double then before, means that initial waves of drones, ballistic missiles are x 2 for this round and includes bridges, data centers, power plants, radars, comm, towers. Preparation for the ground forces, with independent squads equipped with shoulder manpad, drones fpv for excursions either from the North or South landing ala surprised Kursk invasion by US forces. US naval ships positions to be marked for counter strike. Make hays while the sun still shines
 

_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member
Problem is if Strait of Hormuz is closed, the world economy will collapse and there will be humanitarian crises in places due to famine.
World economy will not collapse but will take a major hit. Other countries will divert away from US. America loses influence and trust; accelerating it's decline. Those countries that were hostile to China or in American influence will begin cozying up to China for trade (inflation reduction), and line up outside the Strait to pay toll to Iran.

The only way US can win in any scenario is by winning a ground invasion which already seems unlikely.

Some people might be missing this little detail that much of the world, particularly American allies, were looking upto USA to solve this conflict and establish peace which America has failed. This has long-term implications on US-international relations.
 

TK3600

Colonel
Registered Member
I honestly believe the negotiation is going more smoothly than it should. I mean yeah US is running into a wall here, but Iran is being very reasonable. The strait issue is being compromised, open for all and just charge tiny bit toll as reparation, which US is honestly OK with. Things being contested like Lebanon and nuclear are not even American interest, it is Israel's. Iran is practically forgiving USA with the current terms, basically restore status quo after US killed their head of state and did a mini pearl harbor. It is incredible. Yet US want a nuclear concession for free, not happy with status quo. It is so so stupid.
 

_killuminati_

Captain
Registered Member

World economy will not collapse but will take a major hit. Other countries will divert away from US. America loses influence and trust; accelerating it's decline. Those countries that were hostile to China or in American influence will begin cozying up to China for trade (inflation reduction), and line up outside the Strait to pay toll to Iran.
Like this,
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is only going to accelerate the US-European-East Asian Vassal split.

Probably aimed at preventing them from cutting their own deals with Iran.

I doubt they are brave enough to attack Chinese-linked ships in the open seas.

---

Pulling oil prices even higher. Iran's oil exports are only around 10% of its GDP.

They have a much higher threshold for pain. The US is facing violent unrest.

This won't affect Iran's ability to wage war, just make the US appear dumber.




China doesn't even have to retaliate with the navy; it can just send enough materials to IR by land to destroy 10 Israels in a relatively short period of time, a few weeks.

Ultimately, this is some kind of "leverage play" Trump envisons, but as he is very low IQ + demented, it will backfire like always and bring the US closer to collapse like always.


---

This is the last wild ride of America; they are going all or nothing, expending the last stockpiles of things they can't produce ever again.

This infrastructure bombing campaign is literally the only thing they can do in the next stage, alongside the most humiliating attempt at a ground invasion in history. If they use nuclear weapons on Iran, Russia could just make sure Iran gets its own nuke to employ on Israel.

And I think people have no idea how little Iran has been damaged thus far, on a historic scale, and how quickly it can be rebuilt after the war, especially in the changed world order and relations with China. Iran is very united now; there is a very low chance of surrender for years.

Factor in that the majority of Iranian drone and missile stockpiles and factories, built over decades, are still completely safe underground.

What will probably commence as this "ceasefire" ends is the continued complete, pointless demilitarization of the US globally by Iran.

This is for certain. Anything they drop on Iran will just be absorbed. The question is how functional the US society will remain afterward.

Just as they are rapidly burning the last physical pieces of JASSMs and other missiles for projecting force in the future, they are also burning the last bits of healthy political and social stock left in the country, the longer this war drags on, and the more economic problems pop internally.

It's not like the US government has 80-95% approval ratings like China and Russia. This is a country full of internal pent-up rage that is rarely seen anywhere else. All of humanity should be very thankful to Iran for effectively demilitarizing and letting this scourge explode away faster.
 
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NorthKimBestKim

New Member
Registered Member
Ultimately, this is some kind of "leverage play" Trump envisons, but as he is very low IQ + demented, it will backfire like always and bring the US closer to collapse like always.

This is the last wild ride of America; they are going all or nothing, expending the last stockpiles of things they can't produce ever again.

This infrastructure bombing campaign is literally the only thing they can do in the next stage, alongside the most humiliating attempt at a ground invasion in history. If they use nuclear weapons on Iran, Russia could just make sure Iran gets its own nuke to employ on Israel.

And I think people have no idea how little Iran has been damaged thus far, on a historic scale, and how quickly it can be rebuilt after the war, especially in the changed world order and relations with China. Iran is very united now; there is a very low chance of surrender for years.

Factor in that the majority of Iranian drone and missile stockpiles and factories, built over decades, are still completely safe underground.

What will probably commence as this "ceasefire" ends is the continued complete, pointless demilitarization of the US military by Iran.

This is for certain. Anything they drop on Iran will just be absorbed. The question is how functional the US society will remain afterward.
You're way too optimistic and there is a difference between "wishing" U.S. Empire to collapse versus if it actually ever happens in our lifetime.

The only way to break the Empire is for PRC to spend more on defence than the U.S. That will break them eventually, otherwise, Iran is not "breaking" anything alone by itself.

The problem is, the PRC is not taking responcibility as to what they should spend on defence.

Russia is taking responcibility and spending over 6% of GDP on defence. DPRK has always Boss Level spending about 30% - massive double digits. Pakistan is spending what it can, Algeria is spending about 8% of GDP on defence and bying Russian and Chinese weapons, but the PRC isn't spending that much. PRC can't even bother to spend 4%, not to mention 5%. I can never criticize DPRK, Russia, Algeria etc when it comes to defence as they are doing their part, as they should.

PRC, on the other hand, is almost at the level of Bolivia and Venezuela when it comes to defence spending, and as a superpower in 2026, that is unacceptable low level defence spending.

The U.S. empire that kills without mercy can only be checked by brutality and no mercy in return. It only respect power - and nothing else.
However, underestimating the Empire is a big mistanke. Iran already did a mistake by not getting nukes. But I believe that we are also partially here because PRC defence spending is so low, because PRC should have had more than twice of everything compared to what they have today as of 12th of April 2026.

The point is: when the Empire goes to war, it always counts first what Russia and PRC has, before it decides to rape and destroy one of Russia's and PRC allies or friends.

It is not just about "quality of the weapon", it will always be also about the numbers - quantity. Why, because 1.000.000 drones is always better than 1.000 drones. There is simply no discussing around it. 1 million drones ALWAYS WINS against 1.000 drones - period, the same way 1.000.000 conventional missiles will always win against 1.000 conventional missiles.

The same way 1.000.000 soldiers always wins against 10.000 soldiers. Etc.

Having 1.000.000 bullets is always better than having 10.000 bullets. Etc.

U.S. will always calculate what to do by looking at what other countries have - or don't have. That decides how "tough" the Empire is, or rather how bat shit crazy they can be at any given moment. The fact that the U.S. can be bat shit crazy as they are now in April 2026 is telling everyone clearly that PRC is NOT doing its part in order to checkmate this Imperial monster.

This is a defining moment. Iran is a SCO and BRICS member and if Russia and PRC let Iran fall, it is pretty much over for Russia's backyard, and BRICS along with SCO is a bye bye.

If Trump decide to invade with 50.000 soldiers, he will probably try to push from the north-west (Kurdish Erbil-occupied area of northern Iraq), and push inwards, hoping that once "Peshmerga" sees at least 50.000 Imperial troops ready to go for Epstein, Peshmerga may join and attack Iran to create "Rojhelat". Depending on how many Peshmerga troops may go in, we may be looking at 50.000 Peshmerga as well, so that would bring the number to a total of 100.000 Peshmerga + Imperial with air cover.

In a case of north-west Iran collapsing, even Azeri troops may join Imperial forces and Peshmerga. That would also allow Azeris to completely bypass Armenia as Azeris have a dream to connect Azerbaijan with that Nakhcivan enclave.

That requires some battle around area of Tabriz, and if Iran does lose this area, this is the scenario. The area will be occupied by Peshmerga Rojhelat-wannabe + Imperial troops + a smaller part occupied by Azeris.

And there is always the threat of nuke being used against Iran. That would be totally unacceptable. However you are already doing a "nuke coping" by saying that Iran can "absorb and rebuild quickly".

The U.S. society is sick as it gets, so murdering non-White people somewhere in Asia, in this case, Iran, is totally normal for fascist White Supremacists who dream of a Handmaid's Tale / Project 2025 society in the U.S. whilst being allied with genocide Zios in Israel.
 

Africablack

Junior Member
Registered Member
You're way too optimistic and there is a difference between "wishing" U.S. Empire to collapse versus if it actually ever happens in our lifetime.

The only way to break the Empire is for PRC to spend more on defence than the U.S. That will break them eventually, otherwise, Iran is not "breaking" anything alone by itself.

The problem is, the PRC is not taking responcibility as to what they should spend on defence.

Russia is taking responcibility and spending over 6% of GDP on defence. DPRK has always Boss Level spending about 30% - massive double digits. Pakistan is spending what it can, Algeria is spending about 8% of GDP on defence and bying Russian and Chinese weapons, but the PRC isn't spending that much. PRC can't even bother to spend 4%, not to mention 5%. I can never criticize DPRK, Russia, Algeria etc when it comes to defence as they are doing their part, as they should.

PRC, on the other hand, is almost at the level of Bolivia and Venezuela when it comes to defence spending, and as a superpower in 2026, that is unacceptable low level defence spending.

The U.S. empire that kills without mercy can only be checked by brutality and no mercy in return. It only respect power - and nothing else.
However, underestimating the Empire is a big mistanke. Iran already did a mistake by not getting nukes. But I believe that we are also partially here because PRC defence spending is so low, because PRC should have had more than twice of everything compared to what they have today as of 12th of April 2026.

The point is: when the Empire goes to war, it always counts first what Russia and PRC has, before it decides to rape and destroy one of Russia's and PRC allies or friends.

It is not just about "quality of the weapon", it will always be also about the numbers - quantity. Why, because 1.000.000 drones is always better than 1.000 drones. There is simply no discussing around it. 1 million drones ALWAYS WINS against 1.000 drones - period, the same way 1.000.000 conventional missiles will always win against 1.000 conventional missiles.

The same way 1.000.000 soldiers always wins against 10.000 soldiers. Etc.

Having 1.000.000 bullets is always better than having 10.000 bullets. Etc.

U.S. will always calculate what to do by looking at what other countries have - or don't have. That decides how "tough" the Empire is, or rather how bat shit crazy they can be at any given moment. The fact that the U.S. can be bat shit crazy as they are now in April 2026 is telling everyone clearly that PRC is NOT doing its part in order to checkmate this Imperial monster.

This is a defining moment. Iran is a SCO and BRICS member and if Russia and PRC let Iran fall, it is pretty much over for Russia's backyard, and BRICS along with SCO is a bye bye.

If Trump decide to invade with 50.000 soldiers, he will probably try to push from the north-west (Kurdish Erbil-occupied area of northern Iraq), and push inwards, hoping that once "Peshmerga" sees at least 50.000 Imperial troops ready to go for Epstein, Peshmerga may join and attack Iran to create "Rojhelat". Depending on how many Peshmerga troops may go in, we may be looking at 50.000 Peshmerga as well, so that would bring the number to a total of 100.000 Peshmerga + Imperial with air cover.

In a case of north-west Iran collapsing, even Azeri troops may join Imperial forces and Peshmerga. That would also allow Azeris to completely bypass Armenia as Azeris have a dream to connect Azerbaijan with that Nakhcivan enclave.

That requires some battle around area of Tabriz, and if Iran does lose this area, this is the scenario. The area will be occupied by Peshmerga Rojhelat-wannabe + Imperial troops + a smaller part occupied by Azeris.

And there is always the threat of nuke being used against Iran. That would be totally unacceptable. However you are already doing a "nuke coping" by saying that Iran can "absorb and rebuild quickly".

The U.S. society is sick as it gets, so murdering non-White people somewhere in Asia, in this case, Iran, is totally normal for fascist White Supremacists who dream of a Handmaid's Tale / Project 2025 society in the U.S. whilst being allied with genocide Zios in Israel.
Yikes! Couldn't be more wrong.
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
You're way too optimistic and there is a difference between "wishing" U.S. Empire to collapse versus if it actually ever happens in our lifetime.

It will not only happen in our lifetime, but 100% in this decade.

"breaking" anything alone by itself.

The problem is, the PRC is not taking responcibility as to what they should spend on defence.

Russia is taking responcibility and spending over 6% of GDP on defence. DPRK has always Boss Level spending about 30% - massive double digits. Pakistan is spending what it can, Algeria is spending about 8% of GDP on defence and bying Russian and Chinese weapons, but the PRC isn't spending that much. PRC can't even bother to spend 4%, not to mention 5%. I can never criticize DPRK, Russia, Algeria etc when it comes to defence as they are doing their part, as they should.

PRC, on the other hand, is almost at the level of Bolivia and Venezuela when it comes to defence spending, and as a superpower in 2026, that is unacceptable low level defence spending.

PRC is a factory of the world + the defense sector is fully nationalised, so they don't buy overexpensive, overengineered scams.

They get infinitely more for the same unit of payment. Moreover, they often like to understate and obscure their national stats.

China has 10 times as many engineering graduates as the US. The civil sector is wholly fused to national defense by law. Go figure.

Iran already did a mistake by not getting nukes.

I heard this countless times, but this point is simply illogical. If they had gone for nukes earlier, they would have just been attacked by USIS earlier - but without thousands of missiles and tens of thousands of drones.

U.S. will always calculate what to do by looking at what other countries have - or don't have. That decides how "tough" the Empire is, or rather how bat shit crazy they can be at any given moment. The fact that the U.S. can be bat shit crazy as they are now in April 2026 is telling everyone clearly that PRC is NOT doing its part in order to checkmate this Imperial monster.

There is no reason to act "tough" and risk completely falling out and nuclear war with the US,

When they will already collapse soon, on their own, anyway.

I am sure China thinks the same. Just ignore the propaganda from movies.

Do you think that a country that has Trump as its president, for the second time, can have any future?

I mean, how is Trump different from this Kainerugaba guy in intelligence and temperament?



How can the worst kind of Third World-like president lead the supposed "superpower" without any consequences?

How can he even come to that position, which is not just symbolic, two times, if everything is "alright" in their country?


If Trump decide to invade with 50.000 soldiers, he will probably try to push from the north-west (Kurdish Erbil-occupied area of northern Iraq), and push inwards, hoping that once "Peshmerga" sees at least 50.000 Imperial troops ready to go for Epstein, Peshmerga may join and attack Iran to create "Rojhelat". Depending on how many Peshmerga troops may go in, we may be looking at 50.000 Peshmerga as well, so that would bring the number to a total of 100.000 Peshmerga + Imperial with air cover.

In a case of north-west Iran collapsing, even Azeri troops may join Imperial forces and Peshmerga. That would also allow Azeris to completely bypass Armenia as Azeris have a dream to connect Azerbaijan with that Nakhcivan enclave.

That requires some battle around area of Tabriz, and if Iran does lose this area, this is the scenario. The area will be occupied by Peshmerga Rojhelat-wannabe + Imperial troops + a smaller part occupied by Azeris.

And there is always the threat of nuke being used against Iran. That would be totally unacceptable. However you are already doing a "nuke coping" by saying that Iran can "absorb and rebuild quickly".

The U.S. society is sick as it gets, so murdering non-White people somewhere in Asia, in this case, Iran, is totally normal for fascist White Supremacists who dream of a Handmaid's Tale / Project 2025 society in the U.S. whilst being allied with genocide Zios in Israel.

But Iran can mobilise tens of millions of people in no time. And despite the month of bombing, I fail to see any ethnic tensions or uprisings in Iran. Actually, the US bombs pretty indiscriminately, and all ethnic groups hate them. Just watch this documentary on the Azeri areas. It was also local Lurs who actually shot at and engaged the US aircraft just recently preceding that failed uranium excavation debacle, by the US admission.


 
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