2026 Iran War Strategy and Analysis

Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The recent negotiations prove that Trump only cares about oil/gas price stabilization to avoid economic catastrophe before mid-term elections (Republicans totally screwed in midterms). Now regime change is no longer the top priority. It was hubris and bad intelligence to believe that decapitation and mass protests can lead to quick regime change. It's time for Trump to declare victory with a defacto Iranian toll on straits and leave. Ground invasion is political suicide and very risky, and airpower-only strategy has failed again and again.
 
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bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
US attempted a ground invasion with 100 SOF to retrieve the nuke materials, they failed badly with multiple planes got destroyed.

Iran is much much harder than Iraq ground invasion. Iraq didn't get any help. Iraq, Afghans and those Russian sunni declared they will help Iran in event of US ground invasion.
 
another505

another505

Junior Member
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
The recent negotiations prove that Trump only cares about oil/gas price stabilization to avoid economic catastrophe before mid-term elections (Republicans totally screwed in midterms). Now regime change is no longer the top priority. It was hubris and bad intelligence to believe that decapitation and mass protests can lead to quick regime change. It's time for Trump to declare victory with a defacto Iranian toll on straits and leave. Ground invasion is political suicide and very risky, and airpower-onlu strategy has failed again and again.
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If Trump has accepted the inevitability of Iranian toll, wouldn't they finish this deal and announce "victory."
I think a round 2 of combat is going to happen.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
another505 said:
If Trump has accepted the inevitability of Iranian toll, wouldn't they finish this deal and announce "victory."
I think a round 2 of combat is going to happen.
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Give him time. He will find Iran too boring to keep his attention and switch to sealclubbing Cuba or another weaker country to distract. For Trump, it's easy to distract with a new shiny object and spin Iran as a victory at his convenience.
 
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protonme18

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Iranians came with technical details, seriousness and execution of the deal. The Americans came with Vance carrying his two little balls as Trump's fall guy to be blame for 1...the deal failure.....2 doing a bad deal. Basically a no win situation for Vance. It depends how Vance kicks the ball back to Trump to preserve his own political career next. You can see how nasty his own boss Trump is, even in the midst of negotiation, that asshole instruct navy ships to go over the Hormuz straits and post his nonsense gibberish of clearing mines or what not. The rabids influence western propaganda news outlet picks this up and ran the headlines to show how tuff and great their Orange leader manage to get the ships pass and "WINNING BIGLY". What an asshole of a boss to have....even this Vance a MAGA zealot, still pity the guy to have such a boss....
 
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discspinner

Junior Member
Registered Member
Trump says he doesn't care if there is a deal or not. They already won. Sounds like there won't be any more fighting between US and Iran. But the US will not sign any treaty that admits defeat unless it addresses the nuclear issue.

Problem is if Strait of Hormuz is closed, the world economy will collapse and there will be humanitarian crises in places due to famine.

If this is the likely end game, and maybe Iran already recognizes this, then it will simply start collecting tolls before the whole world, including China will exert pressure on them to do so.

My hunch is Iran will try to one last time to exert economic pressure on Trump to force a formal treaty before it loosens up the strait.
 
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protonme18

Junior Member
Registered Member
discspinner said:
Trump says he doesn't care if there is a deal or not. They already won. Sounds like there won't be any more fighting between US and Iran. But the US will not sign any treaty that admits defeat unless it addresses the nuclear issue.

Problem is if Strait of Hormuz is closed, the world economy will collapse and there will be humanitarian crises in places due to famine.

If this is the likely end game, and maybe Iran already recognizes this, then it will simply start collecting tolls before the whole world, including China will exert pressure on them to do so.

My hunch is Iran will try to one last time to exert economic pressure on Trump to force a formal treaty before it loosens up the strait.
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Trump will not put signature or admit to paying for anything. I read previously before he asked the GCC to pay 5 Trillions to further "win the war" against Iran or 2.5 Trillions for what has been achieved so far. Basically he is asking Saudis, UAE etc to pay up now for all the damages, losses that US incur when he launch the attack on the advice of Israel.......so no. Iran asking US to pay for anything is naive. Basically the "unsanction" of freeze fund is own initiatives by the Qatar & South Korea to buy favor from Iranians to let their oil ship past. Basically what is a sanction? Sanction is a verbal instruction from 1 guy sitting in the oval office to say, bla bla bla bla...I have an orange balls, then the rabid zealots or followers of these Orange ball guy, then immediately does his instructions and freeze the other guys fund and money. Basically, saying, don't blame me, I did this because that guy sitting 5000km away told me too...so sorry....your money is hold here....haha. Now that the rabid zealots followers are facing their own hardship, they ignore the sanction instructions and immediately reverse whatever and gives it back to the Iranians
 
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bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
tamsen_ikard said:
Us is remotely not ready to concede defeat. Their entire worldview and being will not allow it. They are not ready to give up on the middle east. They also will not go for ground action. So they will keep Bombing Iran for months until Iran is exhausted and ready for concessions. Or Iran will degrade US air forces enough with attacks on air force on the ground and infra attacks on Israel and Gulf Arabs to the point that they are ready to give up and make major concessions. If Iran's AD becomes even better over time and more planes get shot down then US will likely slow down their pace of attacks.

The fundamental demands on both sides are so high that only years of war can cause necessary exhaustion to sue for peace by making concessions.

Although Iran could give up much earlier if the reformist tendencies gain dominance. But I feel IRGC will not allow it this time.
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You think US will make concession if the gas prices and inflation are too high? Is a recession going to stop Trump? Right now, the inflation rate has shot up to 3.3%.

Iran could strike all oil refineries in the mideast and block both of the straits. Oil prices will guarantee be $8-9.
 
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