antiterror13
Brigadier
Is it fair to say "long term" is past 2030 and "short term" is until 2030?
09V/09VI (095/096) Nuclear Submarine Thread
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
- Start date
I'd say maybe a bit after 2030, like 2035. Lead times for SSN construction tend to be quite long, if you assume another 2-3 year fitting out and testing period for the first 095 the PLAN might only really feel comfortable in their assessment of it by 2029. If they only place large scale orders then, it could take until 2032-2033 before we see them being floated at a rate of several a year like 093B has been for last few years.
Sam Paparo told committee members that, since 2024, China had delivered 12 submarines — including nuclear attack and nuclear ballistic-missile submarines — an aircraft carrier, two cruisers, 10 destroyers and seven frigates.
We know that first 093b was launched in 2022. And that since we saw 8 or so launched. Plus one 095. There was some rumor about more 094a too, but how many? And i guess another conventional sub might have happened.
But all those were launched, not delivered.
When talking about delivered subs, tally should be lower...
Depends what is meant by 'delivered'. Launched? Commissioned? In sea trials?
lcloo
Major
"all" is too subjective. We don't know how many were delivered, commissioned, IOC or FOC.
This question hinges on the idea that the wording was chosen carefully as opposed to randomly without much care.
If it's the latter, then who knows what on earth they actually meant (which should be our default position at this stage)
It's entirely possible Admiral Paparo was not being precise, even though it was a committee hearing. But in my eyes, it's an opportunity to try to establish a high end estimate. While his wording was probably a spur of the moment thing to some degree, it is still likely that the standard he used applied to all 12 subs. So if he really meant launched instead of delivered, than 12 were launched between 2024 and today. Which is more than we have photo indications of. Deliveries are less likely anyway as nuke boat production increased only recently so deliveries would imply launches even earlier. But as said, even launches don't fully compute. unless he made an error and really meant 2022 instead of 2024. But let's assume the year is correct.
Can we, as a community, come up with instances and dates of various sub launches between january 2024 and april 2026 and get to 12 different subs? Sure, some of members of this forum may not be interested in that. That's fine, they don't need to participate. But if anyone is interested and can contribute to the attempt of getting to 12 boats in last 28 months - please do.
093B had its first launch in 2022 and 3 more, afaik, in 2023. So those don't count. Then we had some 4 more since start of 2024.
Then we had the first 095 this year.
There was the so called 041 sub that allegedly sank, but while the alleged incident was reported in 2024, sub itself was launched in 2023, before the cut off date.
So to get to 12 - we need 7 more. Is it possible more 093B were launched? Sure, some rumors said 3 were launched in 2024 and 3 more in 2025. But I'd like photographic evidence of some blobs in the dock, which aren't there. I'd say 4 are substantiated by some sort of photos.
What about more 041? Sure, possible. But how many? Based on what evidence?
Also 039C - that's surely to still be in production. But how many per year? Probably a small trickle only.
Finally, some rumors did mention like 2 more 094 SSBNs but where are indications of that? Sure, IISS article says 2 were likely launched, but they didn't actually provide indication of that. We're talking about biggest possible subs. If we have more or less decent tracking of 093 and 095 - wouldn't we also have tracked additional 094s if those were launched in 2024/2025?
Alternatively to all this - Maybe Paparo did mean actually delivered or commissioned. But in that case, given that there was a lengthy hiatus in 093a to 093b deliveries, we're probably talking only about 4 or so 093B delivered, zero 093A delivered (as all of those were delivered far earlier than 2024). I guess a couple of 094A are possible, launched in between of 093A and 093B but delivered only after 2024 - it would even help explain the hiatus - but again wouldn't we have satellite photos of that?
Even so, if for example 6 nuke boats were delivered - that still means 6 more conventional boats were delivered. or 5+1, if one counts 041 as a mini-nuclear boat. 5 039C delivered in 28 months is a lot, especially when their production cadence is supposedly winding down as nuke boat cadence is ramping up - but it's not outside the realm of possible. or 8 conventional boats, if zero 094A were actually delivered.
Ultimately, are there photos or annoucements or even hints from very credible people about any of these events - helping us to get to 12?
Can we, as a community, come up with instances and dates of various sub launches between january 2024 and april 2026 and get to 12 different subs? Sure, some of members of this forum may not be interested in that. That's fine, they don't need to participate. But if anyone is interested and can contribute to the attempt of getting to 12 boats in last 28 months - please do.
093B had its first launch in 2022 and 3 more, afaik, in 2023. So those don't count. Then we had some 4 more since start of 2024.
Then we had the first 095 this year.
There was the so called 041 sub that allegedly sank, but while the alleged incident was reported in 2024, sub itself was launched in 2023, before the cut off date.
So to get to 12 - we need 7 more. Is it possible more 093B were launched? Sure, some rumors said 3 were launched in 2024 and 3 more in 2025. But I'd like photographic evidence of some blobs in the dock, which aren't there. I'd say 4 are substantiated by some sort of photos.
What about more 041? Sure, possible. But how many? Based on what evidence?
Also 039C - that's surely to still be in production. But how many per year? Probably a small trickle only.
Finally, some rumors did mention like 2 more 094 SSBNs but where are indications of that? Sure, IISS article says 2 were likely launched, but they didn't actually provide indication of that. We're talking about biggest possible subs. If we have more or less decent tracking of 093 and 095 - wouldn't we also have tracked additional 094s if those were launched in 2024/2025?
Alternatively to all this - Maybe Paparo did mean actually delivered or commissioned. But in that case, given that there was a lengthy hiatus in 093a to 093b deliveries, we're probably talking only about 4 or so 093B delivered, zero 093A delivered (as all of those were delivered far earlier than 2024). I guess a couple of 094A are possible, launched in between of 093A and 093B but delivered only after 2024 - it would even help explain the hiatus - but again wouldn't we have satellite photos of that?
Even so, if for example 6 nuke boats were delivered - that still means 6 more conventional boats were delivered. or 5+1, if one counts 041 as a mini-nuclear boat. 5 039C delivered in 28 months is a lot, especially when their production cadence is supposedly winding down as nuke boat cadence is ramping up - but it's not outside the realm of possible. or 8 conventional boats, if zero 094A were actually delivered.
Ultimately, are there photos or annoucements or even hints from very credible people about any of these events - helping us to get to 12?
I agree that we should not over interpret the number he used here. He could be including 039C or 041, we just don't know what exactly he is counting in this case.
What about using the rest of the statement to work backwards? He states that there was an additional "an aircraft carrier, two cruisers, 10 destroyers and seven frigates". We have a better track of surface ship launches, are those commissionings or launches? It looks like commissionings as I believe more than 2 055 have been launched out of the second batch?
Bearing in mind Copernicus/Sentinel only revisits Huludao every 5 days and often the shipyard is covered by cloud, it's obvious we may have missed several launches. It's also the case that some of what we thought were launches were actually previously launched boats (recent or not) in for further work, refits, etc. I do think at least 1 of the 094s we've seen there recently is a new build 094B fitting out. Anyway, my guess is Paparo means launches because I don't see how we get to 12 commissions since 2024 bearing in mind only 4(?) 093B's launched 2022-2023. My guess:
2 x 094B
1 x 095
6 x 093B
3 x 041 (which Rear Adm. Brooks mentioned in his testimony a while back 09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread ).
039C production probably ceased for PLAN after maybe ~6 boats with production at Wuchang switched to 041 and UUVs. There is also a small chance Paparo included (some of) the 4 PN Hangor boats in his 12 total.
2 x 094B
1 x 095
6 x 093B
3 x 041 (which Rear Adm. Brooks mentioned in his testimony a while back 09III/09IV (093/094) Nuclear Submarine Thread ).
039C production probably ceased for PLAN after maybe ~6 boats with production at Wuchang switched to 041 and UUVs. There is also a small chance Paparo included (some of) the 4 PN Hangor boats in his 12 total.
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