Yuan Class AIP & Kilo Submarine Thread

[para80]

Wait and see I think. Especially since PLAN probably needs some operational evaluation on how cost estimates and proportionality for operational considerations shake out. There are multiple historical examples of navies fielding a new design of this and that for cost or other considerations that ended up not working out in practice, and then production went a different way. Its fair to say I think though that the initial decision base for spending significant money on the idea supports serious interest. Pointing out the obvious as usual.

The public debate, including in (Western and SCMP) punditry on "game changer" designs will be insufferable either way.

 

[AndrewS]

It'll be interesting to see where these more compact SSN sit in relation to large scale SSNs and current SSKs with regards to cost.

If they're overly expensive it would be reasonable to just construct larger and more capable SSNs instead, but I cannot imagine that they're as low cost as current SSKs. So it will be fascinating to watch the reasoning for this move to emerge over the years. Because so far modern SSKs are perfect for the litoral operations and operations within the first island chain, which are important mission profiles for China. But I can imagine that the PLAN high command pushes for more a submarine force that is more focused on the second and third island chain, as well as warfare in the larger pacific and possible global patrols.

We had the previous figure of ~$300 Mn for the Yuan-class. My guess is ~$100 Mn for a 10MW microreactor (which would be sufficient for the mooted 14knots sustained underwater speed).

And if you have a compact SSN with a sustained speed of 14knots, it makes sense to make other modest improvements at the same time, such as in sonar and quieting.

That would put each one at around $500 Mn.

 

[AndrewS]

Wait and see I think. Especially since PLAN probably needs some operational evaluation on how cost estimates and proportionality for operational considerations shake out. There are multiple historical examples of navies fielding a new design of this and that for cost or other considerations that ended up not working out in practice, and then production went a different way. Its fair to say I think though that the initial decision base for spending significant money on the idea supports serious interest. Pointing out the obvious as usual.

The public debate, including in (Western and SCMP) punditry on "game changer" designs will be insufferable either way.

They should already have a good idea of the Type-041 cost.

I don't think they will stop Type-041 production, as there is a clear cost/capability advantage for operations in the 1IC, ASEAN and other littorals, even assuming the cost is double the previous Yuan-class SSKs. Given the third boat has been presumably been launched, that implies production of 1 per year.

But the Type-095 is not yet in service, so they don't have a good idea of its costs and benefits/
However, we know they definitely will build a lot of these.

---

So I think they will build both the Type-041 and the Type-095, but what is not yet clear is the optimal production split.

 

[antiterror13]

They should already have a good idea of the Type-041 cost.

I don't think they will stop Type-041 production, as there is a clear cost/capability advantage for operations in the 1IC, ASEAN and other littorals, even assuming the cost is double the previous Yuan-class SSKs. Given the third boat has been presumably been launched, that implies production of 1 per year.

But the Type-095 is not yet in service, so they don't have a good idea of its costs and benefits/
However, we know they definitely will build a lot of these.

---

So I think they will build both the Type-041 and the Type-095, but what is not yet clear is the optimal production split.

How big is the footprint of 10 MWt micro-reactor ? is it fair to say roughly the size of 20-ft container ?

Also is it likely the battery would be solid state from WeLion or Gotion ?

 

[AndrewS]

How big is the footprint of 10 MWt micro-reactor ? is it fair to say roughly the size of 20-ft container ?

Also is it likely the battery would be solid state from WeLion or Gotion ?

The commercial 4S-10ML has a core diameter of 0.68 m and height of 2.0 m. So a 20ft container sounds feasible.

Solid state batteries seem too immature, given the state of the commercial industry

 

[antiterror13]

The commercial 4S-10ML has a core diameter of 0.68 m and height of 2.0 m. So a 20ft container sounds feasible.

Solid state batteries seem too immature, given the state of the commercial industry

So probably Semi-Solid batteries, also from WeLion or Gotion is likely (?) and may have density of 500 Wh/kg (note: Taigei Class has conventional liquid Li-Ion battery with energy density around 250 Wh/kg)

I am expecting 10 MWt will produce about 3 MWe, enough for operation of the sub most of the time, including charging the battery

Do you think the nuclear reactor is SPARK-NC ? Lead-Bismuth-Cooled Small Modular Fast Reactor and The core is designed for Natural Circulation, so is quiet

I think it is a game changer and I am expecting PLAN will have many of these baby (>20)

 

[Tomboy]

They should already have a good idea of the Type-041 cost. Given the third boat has been presumably been launched, that implies production of 1 per year.

I'm sorry but when was this?

No further 041 launches has ever been spotted from any shipyards and the original one remains illusive to this day having never been seen again after launch. The confirmed number of hulls is still firmly one right now.

 

[plawolf]

They should already have a good idea of the Type-041 cost.

I don't think they will stop Type-041 production, as there is a clear cost/capability advantage for operations in the 1IC, ASEAN and other littorals, even assuming the cost is double the previous Yuan-class SSKs. Given the third boat has been presumably been launched, that implies production of 1 per year.

But the Type-095 is not yet in service, so they don't have a good idea of its costs and benefits/
However, we know they definitely will build a lot of these.

---

So I think they will build both the Type-041 and the Type-095, but what is not yet clear is the optimal production split.

One should not focus too much on cost alone. One massive factor in favour of the SSKN is production capacity. China has far more shipyards capable of building SSKs than SSNs.

In wartime, having an actually warship in action is worth more than 100 times its value in money.

With war an increasingly real and even likely proposition, I think increasingly PLA procurement decisions will not be materially constrained by costs. Not monetary price tags costs anyways, instead I think the main consideration on procurement choices will increasingly shift to bottlenecks in production and how to remove or bypass them.

 

[AndrewS]

I'm sorry but when was this?

No further 041 launches has ever been spotted from any shipyards and the original one remains illusive to this day having never been seen again after launch. The confirmed number of hulls is still firmly one right now.

From RADM Mike Brookes below. Three SSKNs

Testimony of RADM Mike Brookes, head of intelligence for the US Navy.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[AndrewS]

One should not focus too much on cost alone. One massive factor in favour of the SSKN is production capacity. China has far more shipyards capable of building SSKs than SSNs.

In wartime, having an actually warship in action is worth more than 100 times its value in money.

With war an increasingly real and even likely proposition, I think increasingly PLA procurement decisions will not be materially constrained by costs. Not monetary price tags costs anyways, instead I think the main consideration on procurement choices will increasingly shift to bottlenecks in production and how to remove or bypass them.

My point is that it's best to look at the relative cost-effectiveness of each system, then figure out the best ratios for procurement, then you know what the bottlenecks will be.

---

Over a 5 year and 10 year timeframe, I think a US-China war is actually becoming less and less likely.

Even though the US has gone full-on nasty imperialist, I think they now do recognise that in a war with China, China is already too big and the odds are that they will lose. So the US will just go after what they think are much easier targets like Greenland, Panama, Venezuela and Iran.