Rare Middle East storm could bring floods, damaging winds and tornadoes
A Tornado Alley-style storm system is about to hit the Middle East — in a virtually unheard of atmospheric setup for the region.
Parts of the Arabian Peninsula and Persian Gulf could be slammed by strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday, bringing the potential for damaging winds, destructive hail and a few tornadoes.
Large expanses of the desert may flood, in some cases picking up a year’s worth of rainfall in three days. At least one model shows storm effects stretching from parts of Iran toward Dubai and Abu Dhabi on Thursday afternoon.
Major highways and airports could be inundated, adding complications to an already challenging geopolitical crisis affecting the Middle East, as the U.S. and Israel war with Iran continues.
This is not a part of a world that often sees this kind of severe weather. Although that may be shifting.
An analysis by The Washington Post suggests northern Oman, Dubai and Abu Dhabi are at an increasing risk of heavy rain and flood events in part because of climate change.
As the atmosphere holistically warms and flow patterns increase, observations confirm increased integrated vapor transport — or the movement of humidity into the region. That’s reflected in increasingly common heavy-rain events.
A similar event between April 15-17, 2024, dumped 6.45 inches of rain on Dubai International Airport, forcing the cancellation of more than 1,200 flights. Runways were left underwater.
This time, though, the storm system could feature a few rotating thunderstorms, and there’s the exceptionally unusual risk of tornado activity in the desert.
Dubai, for instance, averages 4 inches of rain annually. The opulent enclave could see 3 to 6 inches by the end of the week.
The storm system was taking shape Tuesday. A developing upper-level low — or pocket of cold air, low pressure and spin aloft — was present over the Mediterranean.
To the south, the jet stream — a river of swiftly moving winds in the upper atmosphere — is squeezed. Like a narrowed garden hose, the flow accelerates, meaning strong winds in the developing jet stream dip.
Simultaneously, a surface low-pressure system will strengthen near Baghdad on Wednesday. Ahead of it, moisture will surge north, introducing instability, or thunderstorm fuel. The same surface low will swing a cold front east, kicking humid air pockets upward and generating thunderstorms.
By Wednesday midday, the approaching jet stream dip will swing more dramatically southeast over Egypt and the Red Sea before pivoting over Saudi Arabia early Thursday.
Any thunderstorms that are ongoing over the Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman will feel those fierce jet stream winds aloft. Changing winds with height, meanwhile, could encourage storms to rotate. That means a couple rotating supercells can’t be ruled out.
Early Tuesday, the Labor Ministry in Qatar issued an alert regarding the adverse weather.
“Employers are advised to adhere to occupational safety and health guidelines and to provide suitable protective measures to safeguard workers,” the statement said.
In Egypt, the education minister said school would be canceled for students, teacher and staff on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the expected unstable weather. The country’s health and population ministry raised its preparedness level to ensure medical resources and needed supplies.
Any supercell thunderstorms could produce large, damaging hail up to the size of eggs, damaging straight-line winds near 60 mph and torrential rainfall, as well as the outside chance of an isolated tornado or two. Waterspouts could accompany any offshore thunderstorms, posing a hazard to maritime commerce.
The European ECMWF model simulates a broken band of rotating thunderstorms stretching from roughly Khuzestan province in Iran southeast toward Dubai and Abu Dhabi on Thursday afternoon.
Moreover, the overarching setup also indicates the possibility of flooding rains. The same jet stream dip could drive divergence, or the spreading of air aloft. That spreading upstairs helps lift air and moisture from below. Rising moisture may fuel increased rainfall rates.
That’s why parts of the desert could see 3 to 6 inches of rain, with locally greater amounts.
Because fine, grainy sand struggles to absorb water, flooding is likely — especially in the urban corridor from Abu Dhabi to Dubai.
Meanwhile, there are indications of additional strong storms and heavy rainfall into early April.
