PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

davidau

Senior Member
Registered Member
The "China will invade Taiwan" statement originated during a congressional hearing in 2021 in which Admiral Phil Davidson, then head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, warned that China could attempt to take Taiwan within six years, by 2027. This was not based on a Chinese declaration but on his assessment of military trends.

China did not comment on this statement as on whether they will or will not AR Taiwan in 2027.

It is just a hot air statement by a US admiral in 2021, and now assessed as "not happening in 2027" in 2026 to accommodate situational need transfer of US missiles interceptors from Asia-Pacific to Middle East. There is a lot of self-declared stupid statement from the US. Including Gordon Chang, of course.

Anybody here who actually believe that "AR Taiwan in 2027" was from Xi Jing Ping?
Xi Jing Ping? Who is this guy? Spellings??
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier

I think the amusing part here is rhetoric itself as opposed to military technicalities. It's interesting to see the emergence of such narratives (or of higher frequency and prevalence) in the US.
Best scenerio for the USA in 2028 is Tucker Carlsen (R) vs Gavin Newsom (D). American power will wane and make way for China no matter who takes the reins but these 2 understand stuff and can make that process dignified and slower. I used to worry about Newsom being too slick and well-liked by Chinese people but I don't think he's a threat anymore after all the damage Trump has done to the US. I think neither will threaten China; they're just going to spend all their time trying to put the pieces back together after Trump ran through the US like a 500 pound degenerate toddler through a fine antique shop.
 

tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
I hope the Iran war disaster for US does not lead to hubris in China regarding Taiwan war, but horror and recalibration.

Cause Taiwan can also play the drone, missile, underground tunnel game against China and China's current stockpile of planes, drones, missiles are just not enough to fight a massive war against Taiwan. They need more budget and start to invest in missile defense and mass drone defense. They need much more force mass rather than just focus on quality.

Huge challenge for China to solve the drone issue cause it makes defense so much easier and attacking so much harder.

So far the only solution I have seen is mass, flood the theater with more planes, more drones, more missiles than the enemy.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I hope the Iran war disaster for US does not lead to hubris in China regarding Taiwan war, but horror and recalibration.

Cause Taiwan can also play the drone, missile, underground tunnel game against China and China's current stockpile of planes, drones, missiles are just not enough to fight a massive war against Taiwan. They need more budget and start to invest in missile defense and mass drone defense. They need much more force mass rather than just focus on quality.

Huge challenge for China to solve the drone issue cause it makes defense so much easier and attacking so much harder.

So far the only solution I have seen is mass, flood the theater with more planes, more drones, more missiles than the enemy.
they actually can't, for psychological reasons.

what do they see in Taiwan? US-Israeli narrative that drones and ballistic missiles are ineffective, weak and the tools of losers and dictators.

See how easy it was to eliminate all Iranian TELs?

Real, legitimate, democratic countries use subsonic cruise missiles and dumb bombs.

We need more F-16s.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I hope the Iran war disaster for US does not lead to hubris in China regarding Taiwan war, but horror and recalibration.

Cause Taiwan can also play the drone, missile, underground tunnel game against China and China's current stockpile of planes, drones, missiles are just not enough to fight a massive war against Taiwan. They need more budget and start to invest in missile defense and mass drone defense. They need much more force mass rather than just focus on quality.

Huge challenge for China to solve the drone issue cause it makes defense so much easier and attacking so much harder.

So far the only solution I have seen is mass, flood the theater with more planes, more drones, more missiles than the enemy.

Knowing the PLA, they are taking lessons from both sides of this conflict.

And considering their focus on anti-drone AD efforts and SHORAD overall, they certainly seem about as ahead on that front as any nation which isn't Ukraine or Russia is (and arguably pushing ahead technologically further than both).
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
I hope the Iran war disaster for US does not lead to hubris in China regarding Taiwan war, but horror and recalibration.

Cause Taiwan can also play the drone, missile, underground tunnel game against China and China's current stockpile of planes, drones, missiles are just not enough to fight a massive war against Taiwan. They need more budget and start to invest in missile defense and mass drone defense. They need much more force mass rather than just focus on quality.

Huge challenge for China to solve the drone issue cause it makes defense so much easier and attacking so much harder.

So far the only solution I have seen is mass, flood the theater with more planes, more drones, more missiles than the enemy.
China drone arsenal is many many times bigger and MUCH MUCH LETHAL than anything that the US, the DPP or Japan can bring. No only is bigger but much diverse and I think even with way better technology. The concept of swarming the entire sky of Taiwan with killer intelligent drones has been well documented in China for almost a decade. Chinese are not fools, they develop stealth tech no just to make planes but to counter US stealth, in the same way they develop drone swarms not just to set the entire pacific on fire but to counter them.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Iran is fighting the US with the same playbook that China was going to use against the US in 1996, relaying on missiles, drones, shear numbers and strategic depth to keep US at bay, they knew that the US arsenal would be depleted and fighting an attrition war from Aircraft carriers and far off bases was nearly impossible. The US was suppose to be prepared for a event like Iran today but looks like they didn´t it.
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
Iran is fighting the US with the same playbook that China was going to use against the US in 1996, relaying on missiles, drones, shear numbers and strategic depth to keep US at bay, they knew that the US arsenal would be depleted and fighting an attrition war from Aircraft carriers and far off bases was nearly impossible. The US was suppose to be prepared for an event like Iran today but looks like they didn´t it.
Whole thing is giving off strong Full Spectrum Jamming vibes.
 
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